Narrative: II. a. 1. A.

Over the past 20 years, North Dakota's economy has transitioned from a period of long-term consistency, to a period of rapid growth, to its current state of relative stabilization. Beginning in the mid-2000s, the state experienced dramatic workforce fluctuations following both the Great Recession in the United States (2007-2009) and the oil boom in western North Dakota (2006- 2014). Despite some downturn following the recession, the concurrent effect of the oil boom quickly drove overall employment, wage, and business growth to pre-recession levels and higher. Although North Dakota experienced population growth, an employment surge, and higher wages during the boom, the current economy is continuing to adjust to less (but continued) oil and gas activity, and exhibits slower, sustained economic growth. Because the oil boom sparked rapid economic growth, many industries were affected by both the upswing (2006-2014) and the recent downturn (2015-2017). In 2015, oil and gas activity decreased due to low oil prices, which fell from a high of $96.26 in June 2014 to a low of $22.72 in February 2015. Since 2015, oil prices have gradually increased, with an average price of $60.58 in 2018. As a result, many economic figures initially declined, but have since grown or remained flat, and overall numbers remain high. Employment and wages in industries associated with oil activity still reflect dramatic growth over ten years. And, at 2.4 percent, North Dakota’s unemployment rate remains one of the lowest in the nation.

There is some continuity in terms of in-demand occupations. In comparing the average monthly online job openings numbers from 2017 to 2018 some interesting facts emerge. Of the top 10 occupational groups in 2017, those same groups were also in the top 10 in 2018. Along the same lines, Labor Demand Survey results showing all job openings from Q2 2019, indicated 8 of the top 10 occupational groups with the most openings were the same as 2018’s online job openings numbers.  

Comparing the average monthly online job openings of 2017 to 2018, indicates some interesting facts. The occupational groups in terms of increase from 2017 to 2018 were occupations in Healthcare, Transportation and Sales. Together, these occupational groups accounted for almost 400 more openings in 2018 than in 2017. These increases coincide with the uptick in employment numbers (Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW)), specifically in Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction, and Healthcare.  

Over-the-year, counties in the west which experienced heavy growth in the past with oil and gas activity, experienced a decrease. Meanwhile, the central and eastern part of the state saw more growth. Among North Dakota's 53 counties, 36 reported an over-the-year increase in job openings, while 15 reported an over-the-year decrease and 2 remained constant. Cass County reported the largest over-the-year increase in job openings with a change of +551. Williams County reported the largest over-the-year decrease with a change of -98. Cass County reported the largest number of job openings (4,609), followed by Burleigh County (2,324) and Grand Forks County (1,357).

The flip side to emerging demand is decreasing demand. The same analysis from above indicated there are several occupational groups that experienced a decrease in demand from 2017 to 2018. The occupational group with the largest decrease was Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations with 42 fewer openings. This coincides with the decrease on the industry side (QCEW) with employment. The other occupational groups with decreases in job openings were Personal Care and Service Occupations, and Protective Service Occupations. These decreases accounted for 21 fewer openings.

There is existing demand in a wide variety of occupations. The two-year average of monthly online job openings illustrates this point. All 22 of the two-digit occupation groups were represented in the top 100 of this list (excluding not classified or unidentified occupations). The largest occupation group was Healthcare Practitioners and Technical, followed by Transportation and Material Moving; Sales and Related; Office and Administrative Support; and Construction and Extraction.

The above analysis of emerging occupations is based on the average monthly online job openings from employers for 2017 and 2018. This analysis is limited to job ads posted online, is focused on occupational data, and cannot project into the future.

The Labor Demand Survey provides a more comprehensive measure of total job openings across North Dakota, including those not posted online. Results are from the most recent survey – Q2 2019. North Dakota’s occupational job openings rate for Q2 2019 was 6.7 percent. Twelve of the 22 occupation groups had a job openings rate higher than the statewide average. Due to substantial seasonal demand, the Farming, Fishing, and Forestry occupation group had the highest job openings rate at 24.6 percent. Food Preparation and Serving Related (10.0 percent) and Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance (9.8 percent) rank second and third, respectively. Other occupation groups with higher-than-average job openings rates include Construction and Extraction (9.6 percent), Transportation and Material Moving (9.5 percent), Arts, Entertainment, and Media (9.0 percent), Protective Service (8.2 percent), Installation, Maintenance, and Repair (7.8 percent), Architecture and Engineering (7.8 percent), Healthcare Support (7.6 percent), Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (7.5 percent), and Personal Care and Service (6.8 percent). The effect of seasonal demand may explain why some occupation groups had higher-than average-rates, especially those related to construction, recreation, extraction, transportation, grounds maintenance, and farming.

The industries with the most job openings were Accommodation and Food Services (4,294), followed by Health Care and Social Assistance (4,159), and Retail Trade (3,446). Together, they account for 40.7 percent of the statewide total. This means that 1 in 4 job openings could be attributed to restaurants, hospitals, specialized trucking, mining support activities, and accommodations. North Dakota’s industrial job openings rate for Q2 2019 was 6.5 percent. Eight of the 20 industries had a job openings rate higher than the statewide average. The Administrative and Waste Services industry had the highest job openings rate at 11.7 percent, fueled by demand from temporary help agencies. Accommodation and Food Services (10.9 percent) and Transportation and Warehousing (9.7 percent) rank second and third, respectively. Other industries with higher than average job openings rates include: Construction (9.5 percent), Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (9.0 percent), Other Services (except Public Administration) (7.5 percent), Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (7.1 percent), and Retail Trade (7.0 percent). The effect of seasonal demand may explain why some industries had higher-than-average rates, especially those related to construction, recreation, transportation and agriculture.

Employment projections rankings do not necessarily reflect the fastest-growing jobs, but they provide an idea of the industries where there will be jobs to be filled by 2026. For example, the Health Care and Social Assistance industry ranks the highest by far, with an expected increase of 11,626 jobs. Other industries expected to increase coincide with other trends, like rebounding oil prices (the Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction industry is expected to grow by 7,828, or 51 percent) and population growth in North Dakota’s larger communities (Accommodation and Food Services is expected to grow by 5,664, or 16 percent). The expectation of these trends driving the economy is similarly reflected in the projections of other growing industries.

All of these facts combined indicate that while there has been a leveling off period in North Dakota, there is still an abundance of jobs; more jobs than there are individuals to work them. This implies that there might not be a skill gap in the traditional sense, but rather a lack of eligible employees. In this type of economy employers might have to be more flexible in their hiring requirements in order to get employees in the door and improve their skills with on-the-job training or improve the attractiveness of their job offers with increased wages or improved benefits.

EMPLOYERS ' EMPLOYMENT NEEDS With regard to the industry sectors and occupations identified in (A) (i) and (ii), provide an assessment of the employment needs of employers, including a description of the knowledge, skills, and abilities required, including credentials and licenses.

Job Service ND relies heavily on the Business Services staff in the local offices to work with employers in determining what their needs are for recruiting and retaining employees. They work closely with employers, schools, and the North Dakota University System to remain up to date on the most timely and pertinent needs and programs. This is done to develop programs designed to help job seekers and employers attain the tools and education they need to address skills needed in the workforce.

Employers have many needs when it comes to knowledge, skills, and abilities. Anecdotal conversations with employers and individuals involved in human resources have yielded surprising results. Many of these individuals indicate the largest deficiency of employees has been “soft skills” such as showing up to work, being on-time, cleanliness, etc. These skills, they claim, would be universal for nearly every occupation. If true, this would indicate a portion of the labor force is essentially unemployable in any occupation. These skills and abilities are relatively easy to improve upon and once the undesirable behaviors are corrected, gainful employment should be possible.

Anecdotal conversations with prospective employees indicate a frustration with job offerings. Many “entry-level” jobs require 3-5 years of experience to be considered. Many prospective employees have been discouraged by this and have left North Dakota to find employment elsewhere. This, combined with an aging workforce while the economy is simultaneously adding more jobs than there are workers to fill, has created another employment need; available bodies. Many open and available jobs require no prerequisite knowledge, skills, or abilities but rather just need people willing to do the job. In the current economy where there are more open and available jobs than there are individuals actively seeking employment, the “less-desirable” jobs are going unfilled. Essentially, it is a lack of desire rather than a lack of knowledge, skills, or abilities.

A third way to look at the knowledge, skills, and abilities that employers need is to look to O*Net online. O*Net lists the more applicable knowledge, skills, and abilities based on occupation. By comparing the top 10 occupations in terms of 2 year average monthly online job openings some basic knowledge, skills, and abilities appear to be most lacking. In terms of knowledge, ‘English Language’ and ‘Customer and Personal Service’ were the most common. The following most prevalent were ‘Mathematics’ and ‘Public Safety and Security’. In terms of skills ‘Active Listening’ was the most prevalent, followed by ‘Service Orientation’, ‘Speaking’, and ‘Coordination’. In terms of abilities, the top four abilities for the top occupations were ‘Near Vision’, ‘Oral Comprehension’, ‘Oral Expression’, and “Control Precision”.

According to the Labor Demand Survey, employers reported job openings for 615 distinct occupations. The top 3 occupations by labor demand were Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (1,865), Retail Salespersons (1,001), and Registered Nurses (913). These 3 occupations accounted for 12.9 percent of the statewide total. The top 50 occupations by labor demand accounted for 63.1 percent of the statewide total. Most of the top 50 occupation job openings were permanent, full-time, and require little-to-no postsecondary education or prior work experience. Higher-ranked occupations—those with more job openings—were more likely to pay lower wages, be part-time, and require little-to-no postsecondary education or prior work experience.

In terms of these in-demand occupations, there are certain licenses and degrees that are required to gain access to employment. For example, a heavy and tractor-trailer truck driver could require a Commercial Drivers License, a specialized degree is required to be a registered nurse. There are some occupations that simply cannot (or at least through common practice, are not) learned through on-the-job training and require specialized training to even be considered for employment.