Narrative: III. b. 4. C.

Economic Analysis.

After an economic downturn that lasted nearly two years, Wyoming has experienced an extended period of moderate growth. The Research & Planning (R&P) section of the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services has defined an economic downturn as a period of at least two consecutive quarters of over-the-year decline in both average monthly employment and total wages based on data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

Wyoming’s most recent economic downturn began in the second quarter of 2015 (2015Q2) due to a decline in the prices of and demand for coal, oil, and natural gas (Gallagher, 2015). As shown in Table 1 and illustrated in Figure 1, Wyoming experienced an over-the-year decrease in both average monthly employment and total wages from 2015Q2 to 2016Q4. Total wages increased from prior-year levels in 2017Q1, and employment followed two quarters later in 2017Q3. From 2017Q3 to 2018Q4, Wyoming experienced six quarters of continued moderate growth.

While reading the information presented in this document, it is important to consider that the mining (including oil & gas) sector drives economic changes in Wyoming. In July 2019, Blackjewel LLC filed for bankruptcy and closed two coal mines in Campbell County, leaving approximately 700 people without jobs (Erickson, 2019). The two mines that were closed, Eagle Butte and Belle Ayr, were the fourth- and sixth- largest producing coal mines in Wyoming, respectively. According to data from the Wyoming Mining Association (2019), these two mines represented about 11% of coal mining employment in the state, and 12% of coal produced. At the time this plan was completed, the two mines had not reopened. Large scale changes like this may affect the labor force in ways that have not yet been identified.

The tables and figures referenced in this document are available online at https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/WIOA_Plan_Tables_2019.pdf .

Existing Demand Sectors and Occupations

Industries are classified by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Broad sectors are given a two-digit NAICS code, such as mining, including oil & gas (NAICS 21) and construction (NAICS 23). Within each two-digit sector are several three-digit subsectors, four-digit industries, five-digit detailed industries, and six-digit detailed national industries. For example, there are three subsectors within mining: oil & gas extraction (NAICS 21), mining, except oil & gas (NAICS 22), and support activities for mining (NAICS 213). A variety of six-digit national detailed industries are found in each sector; for example, in construction are such detailed industries as new single-family general contractors (NAICS 236115), commercial building construction (NAICS 236210), and oil & gas pipeline construction (NAICS 237120). More information about the NAICS structure is available at https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/guidance/understanding-naics.html.

Wyoming’s economy is driven by the health of mining, including oil & gas (NAICS 21). Economic expansion occurs when demand for and prices of oil, coal, and natural are high. Conversely, economic contraction takes place when demand for and prices of these resources wane. Wyoming’s two most recent economic downturns – 2009Q1-2010Q1 and 2015Q2-2016Q4 – were both preceded by declining energy prices.

Wyoming’s moderate economic growth in 2017 and 2018 was driven primarily by growth in mining, including oil & gas. As seen in Table 2, from 2017 to 2018, mining added the greatest number of jobs (1,062) and experienced the greatest percentage increase (5.4%). Other industries with noticeable job growth included professional & business services (3.9%), construction (3.6%), manufacturing (3.6%), and transportation, warehousing, & utilities (2.9%). In most cases, these are industries that support Wyoming’s mining industry during times of economic growth. For example, construction growth was primarily seen in oil & gas pipeline construction (NAICS 237120). Overall, construction added 701 jobs, while oil & gas pipeline construction added 902. Several other detailed industries within construction (NAICS 23) lost jobs from 2017 to 2018.

As seen in Table 3, over-the-year job growth in mining was primarily found in support activities for mining (NAICS 213), particularly support activities for oil & gas operations (NAICS 213112; 1,056 jobs, or 16.1%) and drilling oil & gas wells (NAICS 213111; 214 jobs, or 15.5%). At the sub-sector level, job losses were seen in oil & gas extraction (NAICS 211; -86, or -2.7%) and mining, except oil & gas (NAICS 212; -79, or -1.0%). The job losses in NAICS 212 included coal mining (NAICS 2121), which lost 98 jobs from 2017 to 2018 (-1.8%).

Existing demand occupations can be identified using the New Hires Job Skills Survey (New Hires Survey), which is conducted by R&P on a quarterly basis, based on a sample of new hires. The purpose of this survey is to collect information about jobs that are filled in the state, such as occupation, typical job duties, wages and benefits, license and certification requirements, necessary job skills, employers' satisfaction with their new hires' skills, and more. In addition, by linking New Hires Survey data with several administrative databases, R&P is able to identify the demographics of new hires, such as gender and age. New Hires Survey results are published annually and contain a wealth of information about the state's job and labor markets.

In 2017, there were 88,561 new hires in Wyoming. The majority of all new hires worked in occupations with no formal educational requirement (52.0%) or in occupations that require a high school diploma or equivalent (33.0%); together, these two categories accounted for 85.0% of all new hires. The remaining 13,292 new hires (15.0%) worked in occupations that required some education beyond a high school diploma, from some college courses or a postsecondary certificate to a master's degree or doctoral degree.

Table 4 provides a list of the 10 most frequently occurring new hires occupations requiring some postsecondary education in 2017. The occupations in Table 4 that require less than an associate’s degree could be seen as demand occupations for which training could be completed relatively quickly. For example, occupations that require a postsecondary non-degree award (certificate) include truck drivers, nursing assistants, medical assistants, computer user support specialists, and heating, air conditioning, & refrigeration mechanics.

Emerging demand industry sectors and occupations

Emerging demand industries and occupations were identified using R&P’s most recent short-term industry and occupational projections for 2018Q2 to 2020Q2, available online at https://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/projections/2019/Short_Term_Projections_2018-20.htm.

For the purposes of this state plan, R&P identified emerging demand industries as subsectors (three-digit NAICS) with projected growth of at least 5.0% and 20 jobs from 2018Q2 to 2020Q2. Table 5 shows the 13 subsectors (three-digit NAICS) that met these criteria, along with the major industry sector (two-digit NAICS) to which each subsector belongs. The greatest increase in terms of the number of jobs and percentage (1,821, or 19.8%) is projected for support activities for mining (NAICS 213).

Three emerging demand industries were identified in Wyoming’s manufacturing sector: beverage & tobacco product manufacturing (NAICS 312), plastics & rubber products manufacturing (NAICS 326), and fabricated metal product manufacturing (NAICS 332). Three emerging demand industries were also identified in transportation & warehousing: truck transportation (NAICS 484), support activities for transportation (NAICS 488), and warehousing & storage (NAICS 493).

For this unified state plan, R&P has listed 25 emerging demand occupations by identifying the top five occupations with the greatest number of projected openings from 2018 to 2020 for each educational requirement (see Table 6). Occupational projections include three types of openings: growth (numeric change), exits (persons leaving the workforce), and transfers (persons changing occupations).

The vast majority (74.9%) of openings are projected in occupations that require a high school diploma or less (see Figure 2). The occupations with the greatest number of total openings for this educational requirement included cashiers (2,423), retail salespersons (2,353), waiters &

waitresses (2,254), combined food preparation & serving workers (1,951), and office clerks, general (1,565). Many of these occupations are relatively low-paying jobs with high turnover that are often found in industries such as retail trade and leisure & hospitality.

Occupations requiring some college and no degree or a postsecondary certificate accounted for all 8.4% of all projected openings from 2018Q2 to 2020Q2. These included occupations such as heavy & tractor-trailer truck drivers (1,794 openings), bookkeeping, accounting, & auditing clerks (759 openings), and nursing assistants (731 openings).

Occupations requiring an associate’s degree made up 2.0% of all projected openings. Occupations in this category included forest & conservation technicians (144 openings), paralegals & legal assistants (128 openings), geological & petroleum technicians (126 openings), and chemical technicians (971 openings).

The second-largest group of projected occupations required a bachelor’s degree (12.5% of all projected openings). The occupations in this category varied, with the greatest number of openings projected for general & operations managers (952), registered nurses (639), elementary school teachers, except special education (463), and accountants & auditors (389), among other occupations.

Occupations requiring a master’s degree accounted for just 1.2% of all projected openings. Many of these occupations are found in educational services, such as educational, guidance, school, & vocational counselors (136 openings), education administrators, elementary & secondary school (71 openings), and instructional coordinators (66 openings).

The smallest proportion of all projected openings were found in occupations requiring a doctoral or professional degree (1.0%). These included such occupations as lawyers (103 openings), physical therapists (50 openings), and clinical, counseling, & school psychologists (36 openings).

A full list of short-term projections of all occupations is available athttps://doe.state.wy.us/LMI/projections/2019/Short_Term_Projections_2018-20.htm.

An assessment of this data reinforces Wyoming’s current priority on continuing with the Wyoming Workforce Development Council’s Next Generation Sector Partnerships.  These partnerships will be instrumental in solving Wyoming’s future projections for a decline in Mining.  Committees of the Next Generation Sector Partnership are working on surveys to connect a Talent Transition to Rapid Response for an enhanced effort toward keeping our population, especially youth from leaving the state.

 A Youth Collaborative Group was established after evaluation and assessments for low WIOA youth enrollment and the group is still going strong with great success for the new Natrona County WIOA Youth Program.  Partners especially Community Colleges and Adult Education have been instrumental in the Wyoming Educational Attainment Taskforce to design strategies to assist with reaching a 67% credential and certificate attainment rate by 2025. 

During programmatic monitoring compliance visits, assessments were made on gaps in training and a modified training plan was rolled out.  The new training plan strategy encompassed visiting each American Job Center instead of utilizing a large group training approach.  The interactive approach helped to open the lines of communication and gave staff the forum to voice areas of concern and identify priority areas of technical assistance they need for their professional development.  Additional Case Management training was offered and completed by Workforce Center staff including Case Manager Conference in Florida.  The new training plan strategy was completed in eighteen months.  The results and continuous improvements have been witnessed in our minimum Work Experience expenditures and increase of Youth Credential Attainment Rate. 

Additional results from the assessments were to add a myriad of training to our toolkit.  Training consists of the following:

New Hire Introduction to Wagner-Peyser and WIOA – This is a short introduction for case managers working with the WP and WIOA programs. A basic overview of these programs and required partners will be provided. WIOA eligibility and participant services will be discussed with resources and tools being shared. Confidentiality and the importance of people-first communication will be emphasized.  Performance measures and relevant data will also be discussed.

Wagner Peyser/Wyoming at Work 101 – Individuals will learn how to utilize Wyoming at Work to assist job seekers on how to register, add skills, complete the interest profiler, build resumes and virtual recruiters, view the labor market information, and how to complete a thorough job search. The www.wyomingatwork.com  online job matching system will be reviewed, highlighting all of the resources that are available (Allison, ETPL). Additional job searching tools will be provided and discussed.

WIOA 101 – Individuals will learn the eligibility requirements for WIOA participants, to include, dates of application, eligibility, and participation. Much time is spent on the step-by-step process of WIOA. This training covers the Wagner-Peyser (WP) application and services for WP and WIOA. Information will be provided on how to set up alerts and pull WIOA case management reports. A WIOA file review is completed to emphasize WIOA monitoring and data validation.

WIOA 201 – Individuals will learn more about WIOA forms (how to complete and when to utilize). The hands-on approach will continue with the creation of objective assessments and plans, agreements and vouchers. Specific time will be designated to the creation and discussion for Work Experiences and On-the-Job Training for WIOA participants.

WIOA Case Management – Individuals will learn the core elements and process of case management, how to appropriately document/case note contact versus service delivery, and understand activities and services in relation to case management.

Training will be offered quarterly in three different central statewide locations.  Future additions will incorporate partners into training for continuous improvement efforts.