Narrative: II. a. 1. A.

CURRENT JOB DEMAND AND OUTLOOK A recent survey of employer job vacancies provides a snapshot of demand for workers among industries. The survey found that 80 percent of job vacancies occurred in five sectors: healthcare and social assistance, retail trade, administrative and waste services, accommodation and food services, and construction. Sectors with above—average demand for workers (measured as vacancies relative to employment in the sector) were administrative and waste services, construction, healthcare and social assistance and transportation, warehousing and utilities. The survey also asked employers to indicate openings that were difficult to fill and the reason. Among sectors with above average demand, the share of difficult—to—fill vacancies ranged from 68 percent at healthcare and social assistance firms to 98 percent at construction firms. There was above—average demand is for workers in personal care and service, healthcare support, construction and extraction, food preparation and serving, building and grounds maintenance, transportation and material moving, and sales related occupational groups. Of these groups, the most difficult to fill were: construction and extraction (99 percent), personal care and service (85 percent), and building and grounds maintenance (82 percent) occupations. Other groups with lower demand but above—average shares of difficult—to—fill openings were: legal (100 percent), installation, maintenance and repair (90 percent), education, training and library (90 percent), business and financial (86 percent) and life, physical and social science occupations (81percent). Findings from the job vacancy survey largely mirror projections of job change among industries and occupations through 2022. Expected job openings and job growth are concentrated in two areas: human capital that requires intensive functions that generally offer above average earnings, and labor intensive functions that generally offer lower than average earnings. At the same time, middle income jobs that traditionally have had limited education or skill demands are either declining or rapidly changing as increasingly higher levels of technology competency are required. Many individuals displaced from production, administrative support, and similar jobs are finding their only options are low skill jobs with lower earnings because they lack the education or experience necessary for entry into higher paying human capital—intensive jobs or the technology competency for the new middle income jobs. Most net job growth through 2022 is expected in healthcare FIGURE 6: PROJECTED NET JOB GROWTH——TOP INDUSTRIES The fastest job growth is expected in healthcare occupations that require a degree FIGURE 7: OCCUPATIONS WITH HIGHEST PROJECTED JOB GROWTH Healthcare is the largest sector in Maine, accounting for 17percent of jobs. Of the net job growth expected through 2022, most is expected in this sector. Large numbers of physicians, nurses, laboratory, and diagnostic technicians will be required. Healthcare practitioner and technician occupations require postsecondary education ranging from certifications to highly advanced degrees. Information technology (IT) is expected to continue to increase in importance across every sector of the economy, with IT related occupations continuing to be among the fastest growing. Many IT jobs not only require certification in certain applications, but the types of applications, systems, and platforms are fast changing requiring a flexible, adaptable workforce that is regularly pursuing continuing education. Additionally, technology competency will increasingly pervade most occupations, often in ways that cannot yet be anticipated. Other areas of projected job growth include hospitality industries, including food service and other associated occupations with mostly limited education and skill demands.

Manufacturing industries expected to lose the most jobs through 2022 FIGURE 8: OUTLOOK: DECLINING INDUSTRIES The fastest rates of job loss through 2022 are expected in occupations that do not require education beyond high school FIGURE 9: OUTLOOK——DECLINING OCCUPATIONS Manufacturing was the backbone that built many cities in Maine in the 19th and 20th centuries. Textile mills, shoe shops, paper and saw mills, and others provided middle income jobs for tens of thousands, especially those without postsecondary education. But the number of manufacturing jobs peaked in the late 1970s and has been declining ever since. That trend is projected to continue through, resulting in fewer jobs in production occupations. At the same time, the increasing capability and proliferation of office technology is expected to continue to eliminate large numbers of administrative support jobs. REGIONAL TRENDS Economic performance across the state has been uneven. The recovery has been strongest in the south along the Interstate 95 and 295 corridors; there has been more limited recovery in the mid—coast region; and some counties along the northern rim of the state continue to decline.

Number of Jobs, Indexed to 2007

FIGURE 11: REGIONAL JOB TRENDS Number of Jobs, Indexed to 2007 FIGURE 12: REGIONAL JOB TRENDS——MIDCOAST COUNTIES FIGURE 13: MAINE COUNTY MAP There are a wide range of factors involved in the differing performance of regions. The economic structure of northern Maine is highly concentrated in forest products and agriculture. Advances in mechanization of harvesting of timber and crops, as well as other factors have displaced thousands of workers from those industries over the years. Much of the region has not found the economic development solutions to replace those industries. This has caused stagnation or decline in many communities as a large share of young people leave for southern Maine or other states in search of better job opportunities, leaving a generally older population behind. Several counties in Maine are among the oldest in the nation by median age. Jobs are increasingly concentrated in and around cities. This is primarily because the nature of stable and growing industries is to be in densely populated areas. Healthcare, the strongest growing industry in Maine, is mostly concentrated in and around hospitals, which are only found in places of population density. Law and accounting firms and other types of professional services, colleges, and other industries that comprise a rising share of jobs also are primarily found in cities. Employer Needs; Employment has shifted towards industries with a greater share of educated workers. Over the last two decades, industries recording employment gains had a higher share of workers with a bachelor’s degree than industries that shed jobs. The education, health, business, and professional services industries have a higher than average share of workers with a bachelor’s degree level. Conversely, manufacturing and construction, which have shed thousands of jobs, have a lower than average share of workers with a bachelor’s degree. To a large degree, the changing educational needs of employers reflect the changing nature of work; that is, the shifting occupational structure of the workplace. Changes that have been taking place and are expected to continue include: • Increase in higher level jobs and a decline in traditional manual occupations; • Movement from skills associated with manual dexterity towards skills associated with understanding and monitoring complex systems; • Shift away from routine processes toward coordination and collaboration; • Increase of general work skills required in many jobs such as the ability to use computers; • Expanded need for communication skills; • Jobs include a broader range of responsibilities. Even among production workers the demand for highly educated workers has grown. Since 1990 the share of production workers with some college or an associate’s degree and a bachelors’ degree rose by 15 percentage points and two percentage points, respectively, even as the number of workers fell by 52 percent. Approximately 80 percent of Maine students graduate from high school in four years, placing Maine above the national average for high school completion. However, only 65 percent of them enroll in some form of postsecondary education. University of Maine data suggest that a substantial number of students who do matriculate fail to complete a college degree. Forty—eight percent of those who start a University of Maine System bachelor’s degree program earn the credential. Just 26 percent of Maine students who start work on an associate’s degree earn it within three years. Occupational projections to 2022 indicate that 60 percent of net job growth is expected to occur in occupations requiring some form of postsecondary training or credential, including 35 of the 50 fastest growing occupations. Workers entering or returning to the job market with lower levels of education find a much more challenging environment to prosper in than was the case not many years ago. Plan Revision; Although the State Plan Deficiencies letter asked for more in this section, after a phone conversation with the Regional Office in Boston on 7/20/16, we were informed that this section does not need revision to the emerging sectors and occupations piece.