Narrative: II. a. 1. B.

Workforce Analysis

To gain a better understanding of the workforce trends in the State of Colorado, state level data was compiled to have a holistic view of the workforce. The FY 2014-15 Colorado Skills for Jobs Report and the Talent Pipeline Study were created to guide Colorado towards its workforce goals. These two documents, in addition to labor market data from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment (CDLE), were used to create the workforce analysis.

Employment and Unemployment

According to CDLE, the total civilian labor force (seasonally adjusted) for Colorado in December, 2017 was 3,050,118 of which 2,957,032 were employed, and 93,086 were unemployed, resulting in an unemployment rate of 3.1 percent, according to the Colorado LMI Gateway. Unemployment levels in Colorado, however, vary substantially based on individuals’ educational attainment. In 2014, unemployment in Colorado hovered at 4.4 percent for people with some college or an associate’s degree and at 3.1 percent for an adult with a bachelor’s degree or higher—lower than the unemployment rate for high school graduates (4.7 percent) and for those with less than a high school education (8.9 percent). Average earnings continue to be higher for those with higher levels of education.^[1]

Source: Current Population Survey, 2015; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 1-year Estimates

There are fluctuations in the unemployment rate by region of the state as well. A review of the unemployment rate for MSAs shows unemployment in December 2017 ranging from 3.2 percent (Boulder-Loungmont MSA and Fort Collins-Loveland MSA) to 5.6 percent in the Pueblo MSA.

Source: Colorado LMI Gateway, LAUS Unit, LAUS system output file

The 2015 Colorado Talent Pipeline Report explored the unemployment dynamics for special populations within the state’s workforce. The number of individuals identified with specific barriers is shown in the table below.

Unemployment rates and workforce participation rates for these populations vary from the overall state rates, in some cases significantly. The rates for veterans, low-income individuals, and individuals with disabilities is outlined in the table below. The table highlights that veterans have the lowest unemployment rate of groups with barriers at 4.8%, and a workforce participation rate of 76.4%. Individuals with disabilities participate in the workforce at a much lower rate, only 48.6% and unemployment is high at 13.2%. Low-income individuals also rate low in workforce participation at 54.5%, and high in unemployment at 18.8%.

Youth Unemployment: The youth unemployment rate (ages 16 to 19) remained quite elevated throughout and following the Great Recession; more recently it has seen improvement. Over the previous 12-month period (August 2014 to July 2015), the youth unemployment rate stood at 13.3 percent; whereas, the year preceding it stood at 20 percent. However, the rate is still very high for black youth, in particular, at 34.5 percent (Current Population Survey, 2015). In Colorado, 11.8 percent of youth ages 16 to 24 are not in school and not working; the national rate is 14.1 percent.^[2]

Veterans: Unemployment rates for veterans are slightly elevated as compared to non-veterans (4.3 percent to 3.2 percent unemployment) although the gap has narrowed considerably, having been a 2.1 percent gap the year prior. Employment services for recently separated veterans play a critical role in the successful transition from military to civilian employment. The Colorado Department of Labor and Employment provides specialized services that are available only for eligible veterans, such as individualized job search assistance and case management for veterans with a service-connected disability or other barriers to employment, vocational and work-based training, as well as job fairs and hiring events specifically for veterans. Veteran-specific services are provided by Veteran Employment Representatives (VER)—highly trained staff who are themselves veterans, and understand many of the challenges that veterans face.

One considerable veteran-specific issue is that many transitioning veterans have training and expertise in critical skill areas, but lack the civilian credentials necessary to obtain employment in their career field. The Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Department of Regulatory Agency and Department of Higher Education are working together to identify military occupations that need civilian credentialing and licensing, compare military training with civilian requirements, and develop pathways to expedite the training and credentialing process. Initially, this collaboration will focus on healthcare occupations, specifically focusing on Certified Nursing Assistant (CNA), Licensed Practical Nurse (LPN), and Dental Hygienist.^[4]

Individuals with Disabilities:

Frequently the first, and most intractable barrier underemployed or unemployed Coloradans with disabilities face is an overemphasis on what is expected that he or she cannot, should not, or is not doing. The lack of balance between a focus on functional limitation rather than on the person’s talent and ambitions is expensive and wasteful. The workforce development system in Colorado is committed to providing the high quality services necessary to prepare individuals with disabilities to compete for jobs and fully participate in Colorado’s workforce. Colorado currently ranks 9^th in the nation for employment of individuals with disabilities. There are just over 300,000 Coloradans with disabilities, representing 8.9% of the State’s population. 41.6% of these individuals are employed compared to 79.1% of Coloradans who do not have a disability. When compared nationally, Coloradans with disabilities fare slightly better than the national average.[5] However, there is still significant work to be done to improve the employment prospects of individuals with disabilities in Colorado, including encouraging participation in the workforce by individuals with disabilities through increased understanding of of the supports available to promote their success, and ensuring those who seek to work have opportunities to do so in competitive integrated employment.

The Division of Vocational Rehabilitation (DVR) leads the way by providing the full range of rehabilitation services, including one-on-one vocational guidance and counseling, necessary to understand and mitigate the ways a disability impedes the capacity to show and apply talent at work. In Fiscal Year 2016, DVR assisted 2,294 Coloradans with disabilities to secure, retain or regain employment. These workers earned an average of $12.66 an hour working 29.14 hours a week on average. DVR further works with employers and community partners to increase opportunities for employment, career advancement and economic gain for eligible Coloradans with disabilities. In addition to the work of DVR, all Workforce Centers are compliant with Section 188 of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act, ensuring physical and programmatic access to all services and benefits available throughout the workforce development system. Ensuring Physical and programmatic accessibility is also a component of the state’s certification policy for one-stop centers, which will help to further ensure that all customers can access services in all parts of the state.

When individuals with disabilities can access services effectively and efficiently, they not only benefit from being productive members of the workforce, but the state benefits from a population that relies less heavily on social services; it is crucial to sustain a supply of capable workers that will continue to grow Colorado business while attracting others to the state.

Long-term Unemployed: The long-term unemployed, (individuals out of work for 26+ weeks), face a unique combination of social, emotional, and skill deficiencies caused by the duration of their unemployment. These deficiencies require intensive “wraparound” services to address these issues effectively, while rapidly moving individuals to paid work experience and reemployment. Currently, there are 27,400 individuals considered long-term unemployed; during the same period the year before there were 54,000 individuals who were considered long-term unemployed.

The share of long-term unemployed out of all unemployed persons also continues to decrease: currently, the long-term unemployed make up nearly one-quarter of all unemployed (Current Population Survey, 2015). Credit for this drop can be attributed to Colorado’s improved economy, as well as to concentrated public and private initiatives. For example, Governor Hickenlooper’s Hire4Colorado Campaign challenged businesses to give the long-term unemployed an opportunity to prove themselves and also increased awareness of services available through workforce centers for long-term unemployed individuals. There have also been targeted efforts by a number of agencies and organizations to impact specific populations such as veterans, older citizens, youth and others with challenges to obtaining employment.^[3]

Labor Market Trends

The FY 2014-15 Colorado Skills for Jobs Report notes that by the year 2020, it is estimated that 64 percent of all jobs, nationally, will require post-secondary education. In Colorado, however, 74 percent of all jobs statewide will require some level of post-secondary education or training by the year 2020, well exceeding the national average. Relative to the rest of the nation, Colorado has a highly educated adult population. It is estimated that 68 percent of adults have some college experience or a postsecondary credential, while 46 percent have an associate’s degree or higher.^[6]

More jobs are expected to require higher levels of education in the coming years. To meet emerging employer demand, Colorado will need to increase postsecondary credential production by 2% per year or about 1,000 additional degrees/credentials annually, according to the FY 2014-15 Colorado Skills for Jobs Report, in order to meet the goal set by the Colorado Department of Higher Education of 66 percent post-secondary certificate or degree attainment level for Coloradans ages 25 to 34 by 2025.^[1]

Additionally, comprehensive state level data show that several industries and occupations are on the incline while others will continue to decline over the next 10 years.

Health care and social assistance will add an additional 83,382 jobs to the economy. The subsectors that will experience the most growth are:

• General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (9,701 additional jobs)
• Offices of Physicians (6,315 additional jobs)
• Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities (10,283 additional jobs)
• Home Health Care Services (8,641 additional jobs)

Professional, scientific and technical services will add an additional 66,059 jobs. The engineering services subsector will add an additional 8,731 jobs over the next ten years while the subsectors of Computer Systems Design Services, Custom Computer Programming Services, Offices of Lawyers and Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Biotechnology) will add 11,196; 8,571; 2,731 and 2,302 jobs respectively.

Although these industries are not listed as a top employment sector within Colorado, their projected growth between 2015 and 2025 is worth noting. Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction industry will grow over 55% by 2025 and the Management of Companies and Enterprises industry will increase by 49%.

Industries that are on the decline include crop and animal production, utilities and information. Each of these industries combined are projected to lose approximately 6,000 jobs over the next ten years.

Education and Skill Levels of the Workforce

It is important to note that there are significant disparities in educational attainment by race ethnicity. Identifying these gaps is important in addressing overall workforce preparedness due to its impact on the development of the state economy. In Colorado, 19 percent of Hispanic adults have a college degree, whereas 53 percent of non-Hispanic white adults have a degree. By 2040, the non-white share of the working adult population (ages 25 to 64) is projected to be 43 percent. Due to these statistics, Colorado foresees needing additional support for those in underserved populations due to the impact of educational attainment on the long term sustainability of the workforce.^[2]

According to the Colorado Skills for Jobs Report, one variable that complicates analysis of a state’s workforce supply are interstate migration patterns. On average, three-quarters of Colorado residents graduating from a public postsecondary institution are found in our workforce within the year following graduation. However, entry into the state’s workforce varies based on residency status, program major and degree level. Some graduates will continue their education and delay entry into the workforce, some will pursue opportunities out-of-state, and some will leave and then return to the state for employment years later. Typically, people with higher levels of education tend to have higher levels of geographic mobility, so while Colorado may lose a portion of educated Coloradans to out-of-state opportunities, the state still attracts a large share of highly educated people. While Colorado has consistently been able to attract qualified talent from outside of Colorado, the state must also anticipate an increase in interstate and global competition for these workers as older skilled workers continue to retire in large numbers.

Skill Gaps

During the development of the Colorado Talent Pipeline Report, the Colorado Department of Education, Department of Higher Education, and the Colorado Workforce Development Council collaborated to identify the skills that will ensure Coloradans are prepared for work or education beyond high school. Through facilitated discussions with business and industry, education, higher education, non-profit organizations, government stakeholders, and students, core skills were identified for more than 100 established, industry-developed competencies that are necessary for success beyond high school. These core skills are included below^[1] and will be a focus on the workforce and education programs driven by sector partnerships and career pathways in the state. Across industry, as measured by O*NET scores, the most in-demand skills include:

• Critical thinking
• Active listening
• Reading comprehension
• Speaking
• Judgment and decision making
• Complex problem solving.

Colorado’s Graduation Guidelines are intended to assist students in gaining work-ready skills while in high school. At the secondary level, the goal is for all students to understand and articulate their individual skill-set, how they relate to potential careers and jobs, and graduate with these in-demand skills from high school. Colorado industry representatives are clear that students who graduate from high school and seek to work in Colorado need in-demand skills that meet business, industry, and higher education standards. Graduation guidelines are a roadmap to help students and their families plan for success after high school by demonstrating their knowledge, skills and abilities to enter the workforce, military or higher education without significant training or remediation. The expected K-12 Outcomes include Academic Competencies, Professional Competencies, Entrepreneurial Competencies, Personal Competencies, and Civic Compentencies. As shown below, each of the most needed skills aligns with at least one of the expected K-12 Outcomes.

While the opportunity therefore exists for students to exit the K-12 system with necessary skills, employers communicate that they struggle finding individuals who have the necessary professional competencies to perform, even in low-skill jobs. Additionally, as stated above, eighty-eight percent of the job openings in the top jobs list are for occupations that typically require some level of formal postsecondary education or training for entry, whether it is an employer-sponsored formal training program, apprenticeship, certificate or degree. Colorado continually works with industries to identify the skills and competencies needed for critical occupations. This process is done with education at the table so that training providers can make informed decisions about program and curriculum shifts that may be needed to ensure in-demand skills are being taught to students.

Additionally, there are discrepancies in supply and demand at individual occupation levels, however there appears to be a shortage of completions for computer-related occupations, various skilled trades and science technicians in particular[1]. Data also shows that Colorado is not producing enough graduates trained to enter financial occupations, computer-related occupations or healthcare occupations.[2] STEM occupations are most likely to have supply-demand gaps. Eighty-six percent of bachelor’s level finance occupations and 87 percent of graduate level healthcare occupations are defined as STEM. All bachelor’s level computer-related and air transportation occupations are defined as STEM.[3]

Occupation groups that may not maintain current graduate-level educational attainment levels of workers include financial and IT workers. Many of these occupation areas— such as finance, engineering, architecture and skilled healthcare practitioners—are occupation clusters that tend to be more skewed to older age workers.[4]

The potential deficits in completions for the graduate/professional level group of healthcare practitioners is complicated by the fact that many of these jobs requires upwards of ten years of schooling, and the healthcare industry will continue to evolve in staffing structures as practices and technology change.[5]

[1] Colorado Job Skills Report

[2] IBID

[3] IBID

[4] IBID

[5] IBID

[1] Ibid

[1] FY 2014-15 Colorado Skills for Jobs Report

[2] Ibid

[1] Ibid

[2] Colorado Talent Pipeline Report, 2015

[3] Ibid

[4] Ibid

[5] Houtenville, Andrew J., Ph.D., Brucker, Debra L., Ph.D. & Lauer, Eric A. MPH, 2016. Annual Compendium of Disability Statistics: 2015. Durham, NH: University of New Hampshire, Institute on Disability

[6] FY 2014-15 Colorado Skills for Jobs Report