Narrative: e. 2.

The 2018 State Agricultural Overview (dated 10/11/19) lists the top five Kansas crops, based on harvested acres, as wheat, corn for grain, soybeans, sorghum for grain, and hay & haylage.

• Wheat production for 2018 was 277 million bushels. Yield in 2018 was 38 bushels per acre. Acres harvested for grain totaled 7.3 million. A total of 7.7 million acres were planted to wheat in the fall of 2017 for harvest in 2018.
• Corn for grain production was 645 million bushels with a Yield of 129 bushels per acre. Acres harvested totaled 5M.
• Soybean production totaled 201.7 million bushels, with a yield of 43 bushels per acre. Area for harvest is at 4.7 million acres.
• Sorghum for grain production is at 233.2 million bushels, with a yield of 88 bushels per acre. Area harvested was 2.65 million acres.
• Hay & Haylage production is at 5.1 million tons, with a yield of 2.09 tons per acre. Area harvested was 2.46 million acres.

• Projected level of agricultural activity for the coming year

According to the NASS Prospective Planting & Stocks report dated March 29, 2019 planting of the major crops was forecast as follows:

• Wheat, 7 million acres, -9% from 2018
• Corn, 4.7 million acres, +5% from 2018
• Sorghum, 2.75 million acres, -2% from 2018
• Soybean, 4.95 million acres, +4% from 2018
• All Hay, 2.45 million acres, +4% from 2018
• Oats, 135,000 acres, +13% from 2018
• Cotton, 170,000 acres, +3% from 2018
• Canola, 29,000 acres, -38% from 2018

• Geographic area of activity

According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Kansas’ geographic area of cropland is primarily in local workforce development areas one and two. The area of prime activity for H-2A certifications also occurs in local areas one and two. There has been a steady increase in H-2A certifications in the past few years due to the underused Agricultural Recruitment System that utilizes our domestic Migrant Season Form workers.

Agricultural employers have shared the need for more domestic workers as they are predominantly hiring foreign workers. There is opportunity for local workforce centers to build relationships with their Agricultural employers to offer more services. Western Kansas has the largest number of Ag employers and can use the assistance of their local workforce centers to share the Ag job orders to their job seekers. Ag employers have shared concern of finding domestic workers that will take a job temporary in nature with no benefits and can be physically demanding.  However, at this point the primary focus will be training staff to intentionally keep Ag employment opportunities in mind along with other employment opportunities to share with their job seekers. With the current COVID-19 outbreak and many becoming unemployed it is important for the state to inform job seekers of all employment opportunities.  H2A job order training will be provided to staff to highlight that H2A job orders are for domestic workers and need to be referred to equally as other job orders in KANSASWORKs.

In PY18 145 requests for H-2A certifications were submitted. Breaking that down to local workforce development area, the statistics are as follows:

• Local Area 1 - 122 H-2A certification requests
• Local Area 2 - 16 H-2A certification requests
• Local Area 3 - 0 H-2A certification requests
• Local Area 4 - 1 H-2A certification request
• Local Area 5 - 6 H-2A certification requests

For PY2018 KANSASWORKS reports a total of 125 Migrant and Seasonal farmworkers in the system. With 67 of Migrant and Seasonal Farmworkers utilizing basic career services (other than self-service) and 58 utilizing individualized career services. These numbers should increase after statewide review of correctly identifying the state's MFSWs. KANSASWORKS Annual Report for PY2018 officially estimates at the minimum of 3,197 MSFWs in the State of Kansas throughout the calendar year of 2018. The estimate is provided by the Kansas Department of Health’s Statewide Farmworkers Health Program.

For program year 2017, there were 41 MSFWs registered, which is an increase of 3 from the previous program year.  For program year 2018, there were 125 MSFWs registered, which is an increase of 84 from the previous year.

The Migrant Indicators of Compliance Report summarized below demonstrates the percent of applicants that received services for MSFWs compared to Non-MSFW:  The number and percent of applicants who received services in Program Year 2018 who were migrant seasonal farm workers versus non migrant seasonal farm workers.  For total applicants there were 67 MSFW and 83,871 non-MSFW.  Of those, 14 MSFW or 18.89% and 27,721  non-MSFW  or 33% were referred to employment.  67 MSFW or 100% and 79,880 non-MSFW or 95% received labor exchange or staff assisted services.  6 M S F W or 9% and 4,373 non MSFW or 5% were referred to a support service.  10 MSFW or 12% and 12,777 non-MSFW or 15% received career guidance.  Zero MSFW or 0% and 58 non-MSFW or 9% received career guidance.

Minimum service level indicators are established to ensure that MSFWs receive the required employment services. Pursuant to 20 CFR 653.112(c), only the 20 most MSFW significant States are required to meet compliance levels. Significant States are required to meet at least four out of the seven minimum service level indicators each quarter. Kansas is not a significant state.

Projected number of MSFWs in the State for the coming year

Identifying the projected number of MSFWs is a challenge due to the limited outreach done towards MSFWs at the present time. Along with new outreach efforts, in-depth training within the Workforce Centers and collaborating with National Farmworkers Jobs Program Grantee SER and other partners who work with MSFWs the state will be able to gain accurate statistics for the following AOP. 

Kansas is a leader in wheat, grain, sorghum and beef production. The dairy sector is rapidly expanding in Kansas and other sectors of animal agriculture are growing as well. Farmers and ranchers across the state are responding to demand from consumers to raise healthy, wholesome food and are also continuously striving to do better, raising more food using fewer resources.

Agriculture is a critical part of Kansas’ past, and it is a key economic driver in our present, but it also holds great potential for our future.  

Increasingly, agricultural resources provide raw materials for a broad range of nonfood products, such as chemicals, fibers, construction materials, lubricants and fuels.  Developing and commercializing bio-based and bioenergy products provide new and expanded markets for agricultural feedstocks, it reduces our nation’s dependence on petroleum and other imported materials, and it helps diversify agriculture. As the world population grows and as demand for animal protein increases, Kansas farmers and ranchers will play a critical role in feeding Kansas families and families around the world.

Agriculture and agriculture related industries support 245,539 jobs, or 12.7% of the entire workforce in the state. The total final sales of all products in these sectors is approximately 65.7 billion dollars. Another metric used to calculate the importance of sectors in an economy is their value added as a percentage of GRP. Total value added by the 68 sectors is approximately 21.8 billion dollars, or 13.4% of the GRP.

Estimated Economic Contribution of Agriculture and Agriculture Related Sectors  

Sixty-eight agriculture and agriculture related sectors were analyzed to determine their overall contribution to the Kansas economy. These 68 sectors have a total direct output of approximately $ 46.9 billion and support 134,057 jobs in Kansas. Running the model for all 68 sectors simultaneously produces the following results:

Below is a summary of 2019 Adjusted Agriculture, Food and Food Processing Sector Contribution to overall Kansas Economy:  The Direct Effect, Employment 134,057, 7.0% Employment, Total Value Added $11,460,174,958, 7.1% of Gross Regional Product, and Output $46,384,549,519.  The Indirect Effect, Employment, 56,598, 2.9% Employment, Total Value Added, $6,098,781,727, 3.8% Gross Regional Product, and Output $2,080,816,993.  The Induced Effect, Employment 54,884, 2.8% Employment, Total Value Added $4,221,207,037, 2.6% Gross Regional Product, and Output $7,266,713,167.  The Total Effect, Employment 245,539, 12.7% Employment, Total Value Added $21,780,163,722, 13.4% Gross Regional Product, and Output $65,732,079,679.

Source: https://www.agriculture.ks.gov/docs/default-source/ag-marketing/ag-contribution-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=b1e989c1_4

The Effect of Kansas Agriculture on Kansas Economy

• Agriculture is the largest economic driver in Kansas, valued at nearly $65.7 billion, accounting for 42.3 percent of the state's total economy (5-year average). 
• The agriculture sector in Kansas employs 248,216 people through direct, indirect and induced effect careers, or 12.6 percent of the entire workforce in the state. 
• If food retail and ethanol production are included, the economic contribution rises to over $80 billion, and employs more than 21% of the workforce.
• In Kansas, there are 45,759,319 acres of farmland, which accounts for 87.5 percent of all Kansas land. More than 21 million acres in Kansas is harvested for crops and over 14 million is pastureland for grazing animals.
• Agriculture in Kansas is not just about growing crops and raising animals. The Kansas agricultural sector includes renewable energy production, food processing, research and education, agribusiness and more.
• Kansas is part of the animal health corridor. Between Columbia, Missouri and Manhattan, Kansas sits the single largest concentration of animal health interests in the world.
• Kansas farmers and ranchers are feeding the world. Kansas exports nearly $3.8 billion in agricultural products. The leading exports are beef, wheat, soybeans and corn.

The following tables document top industries affected by employment and output, as well as a listing of all industries that were analyzed.

In the top ten by employment, Beef cattle ranching and farming, including feedlots and dual-purpose ranching and farming is the top employer in the agriculture industry with 42,501 employees. This table also shows the amount of jobs that are created by the agriculture industry in Kansas.

The Beef cattle ranching and farming, including feedlots and dual-purpose ranching and farming industry directly contributes approximately $ 7.9 billion to the Kansas economy. This table also shows how much revenue is generated in other industries by having a strong agriculture industry.

Source: https://www.agriculture.ks.gov/docs/default-source/default-document-library/ag-contribution-2018-with-retail-ethanol-combined-update-final.pdf?sfvrsn=49078bc1_0

• The USDA Economic Research Service projects growth in soybean demand, but record inventories will dampen prices. Both of the major components of soybean demand, domestic crushing and exports, are expected to increase in 2019/20. Soybeans used for crushing—to produce soybean oil and meal—are forecast to total 2.115 billion bushels, up from the 2018/19 forecast due to a slight increase for domestic soybean meal use. On the 2019/20 export side, replete supplies, a drop in prices, and reduced competition from Brazil are expected to increase U.S. soybean exports to 1.875 billion bushels. While total demand for U.S. soybeans (domestic utilization, and exports) is forecasted to increase, the record level of stocks carried over from 2018/19 means only a small reduction in stocks is expected. (https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2019/august/soybean-demand-projected-to-grow-in-201920-but-record-inventories-dampen-prices/)
• One real-world impact from the nation’s wettest 12-month period has been a painfully slow 2019 planting pace for many major U.S. row crops. Soils in prime agricultural regions of the Plains and Midwest, which initially became saturated last autumn and were periodically blanketed with heavy snow during the winter of 2018-19, have remained wet into the 2019 planting season amid relentless spring rainfall. Exceptionally wet spring conditions are especially detrimental for planting operations for a variety of reasons, including concerns about soil compaction during seeding operations and the inability of saturated soils to support heavy farm equipment. https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2019/06/14/nations-wettest-12-month-period-record-slows-down-2019-planting-season
• Farm credit conditions in the Federal Reserve’s Tenth District continued to deteriorate steadily in the third quarter of 2019. Despite a slight increase in the price of some agricultural commodities and additional support from government payments, farm income and loan repayment rates declined at a modest pace. Lower net farm income creates tighter budget situations for farmers. According to District bankers, agricultural economic conditions in the quarter were influenced by uncertainty about crop production, agricultural trade and other factors that contributed to commodity price fluctuations. Persistent weaknesses in the sector put further pressure on farm finances and signs of modest increases in credit stress remained. Farmland values, however, remained stable, and provided ongoing support for the sector. https://www.kansascityfed.org/en/research/indicatorsdata/agcreditsurvey/articles/2019/11-14-2019/farm-finances-continue-to-weaken-amid-ongoing-uncertainty
• Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies continue to increase as farmers and ranchers struggle with a prolonged downturn in the farm economy that’s been made worse by unfair retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agriculture as well as two consecutive years of adverse planting, growing and harvesting conditions. There’s been an increase in farm bankruptcies in 2019 and Kansas is one of three states in second place for the most farm bankruptcies.    in Kansas.  https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-bankruptcies-rise-again
• Farm income fell in the third quarter from a year ago in each of the seven rural states covered by the Kansas City Fed, according to its survey of agricultural credit conditions. The report cited the trade war, volatile crop prices and disruptions at a major beef processing facility. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-11-14/farm-finances-worsen-trade-war
• Negotiations with Beijing on a partial trade deal that could provide relief from retaliatory tariffs hitting American farmers. The trade talks have bogged down as Trump seeks assurances that Beijing will deliver on commitments on agricultural purchases. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-11-14/farm-finances-worsen-trade-war
• New technology could decrease the workforce demand in agriculture. A 2013 report by the National Agricultural and Rural Development Policy Center -- an agency funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture -- indicates that agriculture is vulnerable to "labor supply shocks, which could increase costs and threaten the ability of some farmers to harvest labor-intensive crops.” The reality for U.S. agriculture is that it may be faced with a shrinking work force willing to do physically-demanding and less-compensated farm jobs. http://www.kansasagconnection.com/story-state.php?Id=1257&yr=2019
• Kansas has a large contrast in precipitation amounts across the state with yearly precipitation on the western side of the state one-third of the southeast corner of the state. The climate is transitional between the humid east and the semiarid and arid western portion. This transitional pattern greatly affects agricultural practices in Kansas. From the middle of the state west surface water is often in short supply.  Irrigation systems draw water from underground to produce most cereal and grain crops. 
  Frost and freeze patterns are also of issue in Kansas. Freeze dates are very significant for agricultural producers, because most crops grown in Kansas have very limited resistance to frost. The agricultural significance of a late frost in the spring can be devastating, because this is the time when most field crops are in the most vulnerable stage of their development. These seedlings have very little resistance to freeze effects, and they can be damaged by freezing, or dried up when soil water is frozen. More mature crops can also be damaged by freezing, resulting in reduced yields or even loss of the crop if the freeze is very severe. Since freeze-control measures, such as those used for orchard crops, are not feasible for field crops like the ones produced in Kansas, farmers must be very careful to plant their crops at the proper times to minimize the dangers of frost.
  https://www.k-state.edu/ksclimate/documents/kgsed.pdf  (pages 4-5 & 17-18)
• Plenty of scientific evidence does suggest that as warming continues to contribute to both extreme weather and a rise in sea level, floodplains in this country are expected to nearly double by the end of the century. Droughts, wildfires and storms of all kinds have worsened over the last few years. Flooding this year caused at least $15 million in damage to Kansas infrastructure, including 11 dams, and led to $3.8 million in federal flood insurance claims. About 1.3 billion gallons of sewage flowed into Kansas waterways in May. FEMA is still assessing damage to infrastructure. https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article237345159.html
• The 2018 Executive Summary from the Kansas Farm Management Association mentions many of the above issues on page 6 of the summary and says with continued expectations for market prices at levels that are below cost of production farm managers need to carefully assess their financial position and make necessary adjustments.  https://www.agmanager.info/kfma/whole-farm-analysis/kfma-executive-summary/2018-executive-summary