Narrative: II. a. 1. A.

Since the end of the recession in 2010, several industry sectors in Missouri have continued to emerge and consistently increase overall employment, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, LEHD. Topping the list of increased employment between 2010 and 2015, both in overall number and percentage of increase are the industries of Healthcare and Social Assistance (50,959); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; (23,992); Accommodation and Food Services (18,918); Administrative and Support (16,517); and Transportation and Warehousing (8,737). Although the total number of employees in Retail Trade (7,268) and Wholesale Trade (6,240) are increasing significantly, the percentages are lower than the top five growth industries in the state. The short-term industry projections predict continued growth in these emerging industries over the next 2 years. The highest projected growth is found in the industries of Healthcare and Social Assistance (14,435); Administrative and Support (9,801); Retail Trade (7,740); Manufacturing (6,950), with the highest level of growth in Transportation Equipment Manufacturing and Machinery Manufacturing; and Accommodation and Food Services (6,741). The demand for occupations required in the emerging industries is evident in the job postings by Missouri employers in the most recent edition of the Missouri Real-Time Labor Market Summary. In this summary, occupations are divided into categories based on the level of training typically required to successfully perform the work associated with the job. Data for the top 10 jobs in each skill category are listed and are directly connected to the emerging industries. Occupations in Health Care; Transportation and Warehousing; and information technology (Professional, Scientific and Technical Services); and sales positions are generally among the top-posted occupations statewide and in each region. Developing sector strategies and career pathways within these industries will ensure a qualified, educated workforce, allowing the industries to continue to grow and thrive in the state. Missouri contracted with Maher and Maher, a national consultant, to start its sector strategies initiative. Using data and research, each region chose a high-demand, high-growth industry, and the consultant guided the group through the process of working with industries, workforce professionals and education partners. Depending on the data and needs in each area, most regions chose to focus on the manufacturing industry, while others chose transportation, logistics and warehousing; healthcare; and tourism, retail and hospitality. The employment needs, including pinpointing the occupations that would be needed within the businesses in the region, as well as the knowledge, skills and abilities required to be successful on the job, was identified for the sector. By building regional knowledge and capacity, the regions can duplicate the process of sector strategies with additional high-demand industries. Analysis is prepared for the regions, allowing a greater understanding of the industry and workforce in each area of the state. St. Louis and Kansas City have more than 1 workforce development area within the metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and the data for these areas is combined within the MSA. Central Region The nineteen county Central Region is home to a workforce of over 270,000 employees, or 11 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell below 4 percent, and employment increased in the region by 1.3 percent, slightly less than the statewide employment increases of 1.9 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Accommodation and Food Services; Educational Services and Manufacturing. The Central Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are slightly less than the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty-one percent of the Central Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high school diploma or equivalent. Kansas City Region The Kansas City Region is made of 5 counties and combines 2 workforce development areas. The Kansas City Region is home to over 525,000 of Missouri’s workforce, or 20 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell to 4 percent, and employment increased in the region by 2.9 percent, which is the highest growth rate of any region in Missouri. Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; and Manufacturing. The Kansas City Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are above the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty-five percent of the Kansas City Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high school diploma or equivalent. Northeast Region The Northeast Region consists of 16 counties. The region’s workforce numbers over 77,000, or 3 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell to 4 percent, and employment increased in the region by 0.5 percent, less than the statewide employment increases of 1.9 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Manufacturing; Accommodation and Food Services; and Educational Services. The Northeast Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are below the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Nineteen percent of the Northeast Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high school diploma or equivalent. Northwest Region The Northwest Region is made up of 18 counties. The region’s workforce numbers nearly 93,000, or 4 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell to 3.6 percent, and employment increased in the region by 0.8 percent, less than the statewide employment increases of 1.9 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Manufacturing; Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Educational Services; and Accommodation and Food Services. The Northwest Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are below the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty percent of the Northwest Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high school diploma or equivalent. Ozark Region The Ozark Region is composed of 7 counties in southwest Missouri. The region is home to a workforce of over 228,000, or 9 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell to 3.7 percent, and employment increased in the region 2.6 percent, higher than the statewide employment increases of 1.9 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Manufacturing; and Educational Services. The Ozark Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are below the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty percent of the Ozark Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high school diploma or equivalent. South Central Region The South Central Region consists of 12 counties. The region is home to a workforce of almost 58,700, or 6 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell to 5.6 percent, and employment decreased in the region -0.4 percent, compared to statewide employment increases of 1.9 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Manufacturing; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; and Educational Services. The South Central occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are below that of Missouri. Sixteen percent of the South Central Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-seven percent of the workforce in the region has a high school diploma or equivalent, while 88 percent have achieved that level for the state. Southeast Region The Southeast Region consists of 13 counties. The region is home to a workforce of nearly 138,000, or 5 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell to 4.7 percent, and employment increased in the region 0.2 percent, lower than the statewide employment increases of 1.9 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Manufacturing; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; and Educational Services. The Southeast Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are below that of Missouri. Seventeen percent of the Southeast Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-seven percent of the workforce in the region has a high school diploma or equivalent, while 88 percent have achieved that level for the state. Southwest Region The Southwest Region has 7 counties. The region is home to a workforce of over 109,000, or 4 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell to 3.5 percent, and employment increased in the region 1.1 percent, lower than the statewide employment increases of 1.9 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Manufacturing; Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; and Transportation and Warehousing. The Southwest Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are below that of Missouri. Seventeen percent of the Southwest Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-seven percent of the workforce in the region has a high school diploma or equivalent, while 88 percent have achieved that level for the state. St. Louis Region The St. Louis Region is comprised of 5 counties and combines 4 workforce development areas. The St. Louis Region has a workforce of over 1,040,000, or 40 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell to 3.6 percent, and employment increased in the region 2.1 percent, slightly above the statewide employment increases of 1.9 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Manufacturing; and Administrative and Support Services. The St. Louis Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are above the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty-five percent of the St. Louis Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high school diploma or equivalent. West Central Region The West Central Region is comprised of 13 counties. The region is home to a workforce of over 82,000, or 3 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2015). By the end of 2015, unemployment in the region fell to 4.3 percent, and employment increased in the region 1.0 percent, lower than the statewide employment increases of 1.9 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Manufacturing; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; and Educational Services. The West Central occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries. The educational attainment levels for the region are below that of Missouri. Eighteen percent of the West Central Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-seven percent of the workforce in the region has a high school diploma or equivalent, while 88 percent have achieved that level for the state. Missouri’s WIOA partnership includes a functional bureau of state government housed within the Department of Economic Development called the Missouri Economic Research Information Center (MERIC). The following economic analysis has been prepared to explain Missouri’s economic conditions and trends, as well as to explain pertinent industrial and occupational demand.

Real–Time Labor Market Analysis

In 2012 MERIC began using a new tool to assess current, or real–time, demand for occupations throughout the state. The tool, provided by Burning Glass Technologies, captures online job advertisements and aggregates those jobs by occupation and industry codes. While on–line advertisements do not represent all job openings, as other informal networks are also used, it does provide a broad picture of hiring activity and serves as one measure of current labor demand.

Industrial Demand

Industry demand analysis from November 2014 through October 2015 showed that the Healthcare Industry (Hospitals and Ambulatory Health Care Services) was a top job advertisement. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services along with Insurance Carriers and Related Activities also had a high number of job advertisers. Educational Services rounded out the top five. A few of the industries, such as Food Services, General Merchandise Stores and Administrative Services have high turnover rates so the large number of job advertisements can reflect the need to refill positions rather than to add new jobs.

Occupational Demand

Job analysis highlights the top ten occupations Missouri employers advertised for in the past year. Truck Drivers were in the greatest demand, followed by Registered Nurses, Retail Salespersons and Software Developers. Sales Representatives and Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers followed. Several Administrative occupations, such as Secretaries and Human Resources Specialists also made the list.

Real–Time Labor Market Analysis provides a snapshot of current labor demand that is particularly helpful to current job seekers interested in who is hiring and for what occupations. MERIC has developed products, like the Real Time Labor Market Summary, using this tool. The Labor Market Summary provides both a regional and statewide snapshot of data found in job ads and is published every other month. MERIC and DWD will continue to explore how this data can inform workforce and economic development efforts to meet the needs of businesses around the state.

Short–Term Projections

MERIC develops short–term employment projections based on industry trends and staffing patterns. The top ten industries expected to have job openings over the projections period of 2010 to 2012 included the health care sectors of Ambulatory Health Care, Nursing and Residential Care, Hospitals, and Social Assistance Services. Other sectors included Administrative and Support Services, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Specialty Trade Contractors, Food Services, Durable Good Wholesalers, and Transportation Equipment Manufacturers.

Industry analysis leads to occupational projections which were developed for the state and two major workforce regions, St. Louis and Kansas City. The top job openings take into account both growth and replacement needs for an occupation over time. For example, a large amount of job openings that employers fill come from the need to replace workers who have moved into other positions or left the business entirely. In the top ten list below, all occupations have more replacement openings than growth openings.

The top ten occupations for the 2014 to 2016 time period include five from the service industry: Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers (8,938); Cashiers (8,407); Retail Salespersons (6,755); Waiters and Waitresses (5,896); and Customer Service Representatives (3,654). With relatively low wages, these service sector occupations have large amounts of turnover.

Long–Term Projections

MERIC develops long–term employment projections based on industry trends and staffing patterns. The information below describes the industries projected to have the most job openings from 2012 to 2022 based on both growth and replacement needs.

For the 2012–2022 time period, the top industries of net change statewide are projected to be Restaurants (16,223); General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (14,564); Employment Services (12,326); Individual and Family Services (9,832); and Building Equipment Contractors (9,690).

The long–term statewide occupational projections show that the top job openings are in the Food and Retail Service Industries. The definition of Total Openings is the projected new growth along with replacement needs. Cashiers, for example, shows a total projected employment of 71,037 for 2022, only 678 more than the 2012 estimate of 70,359 jobs. This means of the 31,096 job openings over 10 years, 30,418 are replacement openings due to turnover while only 678 are new. Total openings are important to job seekers while new jobs indicate where new training needs may be.

The recession and prolonged recovery displaced a large number of workers and made it difficult for young job seekers entering the labor force as fewer openings and delayed retirements increased job competition. This has been true for the nation as a whole and for Missouri as well. Employers through this difficult economy have looked for ways to increase worker productivity to keep cost down and the business doors open. This need for higher productivity is not new but did accelerate through the recession and means that employers will increasingly demand higher levels of basic and specialized skills as hiring activity continues to pick up.

MERIC worked with the St. Louis Community College in 2015 to survey businesses in the state’s largest regional economy about workforce needs. In the State of the St. Louis Workforce Report, surveyed employers indicated that the largest challenge to continued employment growth was the shortage of workers with knowledge or skills. Employers indicated that finding workers, even with college degrees, with adequate basic skills was a challenge. Throughout the workforce, job applicants often lacked basic personal effectiveness competencies such as communication skills, work ethic, discipline, critical thinking or interpersonal skills.

Many jobs in an economy are entry level in nature, such as Retail Salespeople and Food Service workers, that require little technical training but do require basic skills. Many businesses need these workers, as is indicated in the job openings data, and realize that many of these occupations face high turnover rates largely due to lower wages. While these lower skilled jobs are plentiful and offer an opportunity for the challenged job seekers, employers still expect applicants to have common business skills of professionalism, communication, and problem solving abilities.