Narrative: II. a. 1. B.

Missouri gained 393,716 people between 2000 and 2010 to bring the total population to 5,988,927. The population added more males (213,300) than females (180,416). However, the total distribution remains unchanged with 49 percent of the population male and 51 percent female. The population is aging as the above chart illustrates. The percent of total population between the ages of 45 and 64 went from 22 percent of the 2000 population to 27 percent of the 2010 total population. These gains are countered by losses in the share of under 18 and between the ages of 35 and 44. Geographic Change With the most recent census, St. Louis and Kansas City remain the largest population centers for Missouri and show some shifting of populations further out from the urban core. Also over the decade a growing share of the state’s population shifted to the Ozarks, southwest Missouri, and the smaller metropolitan areas of Springfield, Columbia and Cape Girardeau. Counties in non-metropolitan areas grew over the decade in population by 80,853 residents. Taney (11,972) and Pulaski (11,109) represented the fastest growing counties outside of the major metro areas, increasing by 30% and 27% respectively. Twenty seven rural counties declined in population over the past decade. Pemiscot (-1,751) Scott (-1,231) and Dunklin (-1,202) declined the most in population for rural counties; while Atchison (-12%) and Carroll (-10%) experienced the highest percentage losses. Age Cohort Growth The population of Missouri experienced 7 percent growth between 2000 and 2010. The 45-64 age group, with a growth rate of 29 percent, far outpaced all other age cohorts. The 25-44 age group saw a decrease of 6.3 percent. The Missouri Office of Administration projects Missouri population growth out to 2030. By 2015 the 65 and Over and 25-44 cohorts are expected to outpace the state’s growth rate, with 13.2 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively. The 15-24 cohort is projected to decline by 3.4 percent between 2010 and 2015. Missourians between the ages of 15 and 64, generally considered the working age population, increased by 8.6 percent to 3,973,008 people between the years 2000 and 2010. In 2010, this group consisted of exactly two-thirds of the overall Missouri population. Segmented further, Missourians age 25 to 34 constitutes the young population able to fill the potential workforce gaps of the future. Nationally, over the course of the next two decades, it is projected that 10,000 Baby Boomers will reach retirement age per day. This labor shortage will leave a large gap to be filled by the 25 to 34 demographic. Migration In 2014, Missouri had nearly 173,300 migrants enter the state from other locations according to the U.S. Census 1-Year American Community Survey. Migrants from abroad totaled 19,960 whereas migrants from other states number 153,320. Illinois had the most migrants to the state at 24,210, followed by Kansas (18,850) and Texas (11,322). During the year 154,325 residents moved out of Missouri with most locating in Kansas (22,240), followed by Illinois (15,333) and Texas (11,921). From 2000 to 2010, 85 counties had a net migration increase. Of those counties, 44 had a net increase of more than 1,000 in-migrants during those 10 years. Sixteen of those counties are in the St. Louis (6), Springfield (5), and Kansas City (5) metro areas. St. Charles County (76,602) had the greatest influx of residents, followed by Clay (37,933), Greene (34,783), Boone (27,188) and Christian (23,137). Other large in-migration counties over the same period were, Jefferson (20,634), Jackson (19,278), Cass (17,386), Platte (15,541), and Lincoln (13,622) rounding out the top ten. St. Louis City and St. Louis County had the largest net out migration of any county, losing more than 28,895 and 17,361 residents respectively from 2000 to 2010. Minority Population Growth Missouri’s largest minority race category, Black or African American, experienced significant population increases during the 2000’s. The Black population grew 10.2 percent from 629,391 in 2000 to 693,391 in 2010. The state also added 2,300 American Indian and Alaska Native persons between 2000 and 2010, with most of the growth occurring in northeast Missouri. Missouri’s Asian and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander population experienced a large growth rate, of 61.1 percent, growing from 64,773 in 2000 to 104,344 in 2010. Texas (1688%), Ripley (717%) and Daviess (475%) counties reported enormous percent increases in their Black population since 2000. For a second straight decade St. Louis County reported the largest increase in persons (39,723), a 20.5 percent increase; followed by Jackson County with 8,976, a 5.9 percent increase; and St. Charles County with 7,325, a 95.9 percent increase. Twenty-seven Missouri counties more than doubled their Black population between 2000 and 2010. Five counties saw a loss of at least half of the Black population. St. Louis City experienced the largest decline in the number of Black persons, losing 21,106 persons. Missouri’s largest ethnic population, people of Hispanic or Latino Origin, grew by 79 percent from 118,592 in 2000 to 212,470 in 2010, down from the 92 percent growth of the previous decade. Missouri’s population of Hispanic or Latino Origin has more than tripled since 1990, and accounts for a growing percentage (3.5) of the state’s population compared to 2.1 percent of the 2000 population count. Seventeen counties exceed the state’s average concentration. Sullivan County, with 18.5 percent of its total population being of Hispanic or Latino Origin is the only county in Missouri to exceed the United States concentration of 16.3 percent. McDonald County, with 11.2 percent, is the only other county to exceed 10 percent of its total 2010 population being from Hispanic or Latino Origin. Current Minority Population The U.S. Census Bureau publishes population information for demographic groups by state and county. In 2013, Missouri’s total population numbered just over 6 million. The charts illustrate the percentage of the two largest minority groups in the state for that year. Missouri has a significant population of Black or African American citizens. The state’s population of Black citizens is 691,128, or nearly 12 percent of the total population. The Missouri counties with the highest percentage of Black population include St. Louis City (48.6 percent), Pemiscot (27.3 percent), Mississippi (24.0 percent), Jackson (23.8 percent) and St. Louis County (23.2 percent). An estimated 219,703 Hispanics called Missouri home, accounting for almost 4 percent of Missouri’s total population. Missouri counties with the highest Hispanic populations include Sullivan (18.4 percent), McDonald (11.3 percent), Pulaski (9.5 percent), Saline (8.7 percent), Jackson (8.4 percent) and Barry (7.9 percent). See 2013 Population Percentage Maps below. Special Workforce Considerations Along with the many unprecedented changes Missouri will make to implement WIOA, there are also some unprecedented considerations and challenges placed in the forefront of workforce analysis through the release of the Ferguson Commission report. Among the highest priority are “signature calls to action” in the report, four of the top five are firmly grounded in WIOA’s intent for creating viable and flexible talent development pipelines. Below are these calls for action and the implications for workforce needs. • Enhance collaboration between educational institutions and employers. • Ensure employer-educator collaboration to build a love of learning. These calls are what is intended by the facilitation and implementation of an industry and occupational sector strategy initiative. It will include employer engagement with workforce boards and local educational institutions aimed at achieving the collaboration needed for a talent pipeline where all are equally included. • Create an innovation education hub. While this recommendation is more definitive of a program solution that would evolve from the intended employer-educator engagement of WIOA, it is one example of a concrete action that Missouri’s WIOA implementation will support and contribute solutions toward. • Preferentially fund job training programs that show impact. The changes being implemented under WIOA with the Eligible Training Provider System will indirectly serve to move the system of funding training toward approving eligibility only for those that demonstrate significant levels of performance. While this system cannot provide preferential funding, it is being designed to impose performance thresholds prior to granting eligibility for training providers to receive job training funds. • Develop a state supported funding plan for public transit. Although this fifth signature call is outside the scope of action by a workforce development partnership, this call is recognized as a priority need and collaborative strategies supporting it are part of ongoing solution discussions among workforce, education and social services agencies. Of the seven other significant recommendations from the Ferguson report at least five are also embraced specifically by the design of a sector-based career pathways system under WIOA. These recommendations include: evaluating job training success and award accordingly, launching best practice driven job training programs, expanding funding for job training and wage support programs, implementing work-based learning opportunities, and identifying job training best practices. The remaining two recommendations are: ensuring college counseling for all high school students and prioritizing tax incentive programs for youth-serving job programs. These are program specific action steps that will be accommodated by WIOA and can be explored as part of the partnership implementation of new programs. Limited English Proficiency According to the 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 6.6 percent (245,246) of Missouri’s population aged five and over spoke a language other than English at home. The most common non-English languages spoken in Missouri homes were Spanish (2.8 percent), Other Indo-European Languages (1.9 percent), Asian and Pacific Island Languages (1.4 percent) and Other Languages (.5 percent). Individuals with Disabilities According to the American Community Survey 2009-2013 estimates, just over 12 percent, or 447,803 Missourians age 18-64, had a disability. Ambulatory difficulty was the most prevalent disability type at 6.5 percent of the state population. About 5.3 percent of the population had a cognitive disability, followed by 4.3 percent with challenges with independent living. Employment and Unemployment During the recession, the number of Missourians employed in the state decreased, while the number of unemployed increased to over 9 percent statewide. Over time, employers have become more confident in hiring workers, and the unemployment rate has decreased to a low of 5.3 percent in September 2015 to a low of 5.0 in October 2015. Even with the low unemployment rate statewide, Missouri still has pockets where the unemployment rate is high. The brighter news is that unemployment has decreased in every county during the past year. Missouri’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2014 totaled nearly $260 billion. The Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing sector was the largest at 19 percent. Manufacturing and Professional and Business Services represented 13 percent of Missouri’s output, followed by Government at 12 percent. Over the past ten years, GDP has increased in real terms by 6 percent, while the nominal GDP growth has been 32 percent. From 2009 to 2014, Missouri’s GDP increased by 4 percent in real terms, while it increased by 14 percent in nominal terms. In 2013, Missouri had the fourth most diversified economy in the United States. This diversity allows Missouri to better withstand and recover from significant, unfavorable changes in any one sector. Although farm output in Missouri makes up a small percentage of the state’s total Gross Domestic Product, agriculture is an important part of Missouri’s economy. Missouri is second only to Texas in the total number of farms at just over 99,170 establishments and is a top ten producer of hogs (7th among states), cattle, poultry, and cotton (9th). Missouri’s grain production is ranked 11th in the nation and represents the state’s top valued commodity. Many of these products are exported or serve as feedstock to Missouri’s second largest production sector, food manufacturing, which in 2014 employed over 38,000 people in the state. Missouri non-farm employment in September 2015 totaled more than 2.7 million workers and the top subsectors for jobs were in Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, and Local Government. Over the past two years the Manufacturing sector has seen the highest percentage growth (4.1 percent) while Leisure and Hospitality (2.8 percent) and Trade, Transportation and Utilities (2.6 percent) rounded out the second and third spot. Manufacturing had declined by 45,000 jobs from 2007 to 2009, a decrease of 14.8 percent, but from 2013 to 2015 jobs rose by 10,300. From September 2013 to September 2015, the subsector of Durable Goods Manufacturing saw the largest increase in employment (11,500), followed by Health Care and Social Assistance (7,300) and Accommodation and Food Services (7,100). As a whole, Professional, Scientific, and Technical (-2,300) had the largest decline, followed by Government positions (-1,700). Construction employment has begun a rebound, increasing by 2.4 percent after large decreases in employment dating to 2007. Labor Market TrendsTop Occupations and Skills The top ten occupations were analyzed for skill needs using WorkKeys® scores. WorkKeys® skill scores, for Reading for Information, Applied Mathematics, and Locating Information, provide a standardized scoring system ranging from 3 to 7 (low to high) and are based on national foundational and personal assessments used to measure cognitive abilities and the work potential of individuals. The majority of the top ten occupations based solely on total openings require short-term on-the-job training. Registered Nurses and General and Operations Managers are the only two occupations that usually require a formal degree, while Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Drivers require training and specialized driver’s license. General and Operations Managers and Registered Nurses require the highest scores, at 5 for the WorkKeys® scores of Reading for Information and Applied Mathematics, and a score of 4 in the Locating Information section. Specific skills at this level might include applying technical terms and jargon and applying complex instructions that include conditionals to situations. The remaining eight occupations require scores of 3 or 4. These include specific skills such as converting simple money and time units and calculating averages, ratios, or rates using whole numbers and decimals. Fastest Growing Jobs by Education Level Long-term projections are used to identify the fastest growing occupations, thereby providing a perspective on the potential need for more job training and education resources. Fueled by the growth in Healthcare occupations, careers requiring an Associate’s degree are expected to experience the highest growth rates between 2012 and 2022. Growth in occupations requiring post high school training, or long-term On-the-Job Training (OJT), will be fueled by Construction and Transportation occupations. Social Sciences occupations will dominate the growth of master’s degree jobs. Top Growing Occupations Over the long-term, industry needs for certain occupations grow while others decline. These growing occupations will need trained workers to fill employer demand and will, in turn, offer job seekers bright prospects for employment. Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers have the largest growth openings (9,826), followed by Personal Care Aides (9,073) and Registered Nurses (8,019) (See table on next page). When occupations are separated by typical education training levels, the mix of top ten occupations highlights the job growth needs of industry by shorter-term training, longer-term to associate’s degree, and bachelor’s degree or higher. Shorter-term training jobs include occupations in retail and food service (Combined Food Preparation and Serving and Retail Salespersons), healthcare (Personal Care and Home Health Aides and Medical Secretaries), office services (Office Clerks and Customer Service Representatives), and in logistics (Truck Drivers and Freight and Stock Movers). Longer-Term to Associate’s degree occupations, sometimes referred to as Middle Skill jobs, show that in addition to Registered Nurses, other healthcare occupations (Nursing Assistants and Licensed Practical Nurses) have high growth openings. Construction-related jobs (Carpenters and Electricians) are in the top ten due to the need to replace the large number of jobs lost in this industry over the last few years as construction activity picks back up over the decade. Bachelor’s degree or higher occupations show top job growth in management (General and Operations Managers and Market Research), financial fields (Accountants/Auditors and Cost Estimators), followed by jobs in education (Elementary and Middle School Teachers). Strong growth can also been seen in information technology (Computer Systems Analysts and Software Developers). Education and Skill Levels of the WorkforceSHORT-TERM PROJECTIONSEmployment by Education Level Occupations typically requiring short-term On-The-Job Training (OJT) and moderate-term OJT will experience the highest employment increase from 2014 to 2016: short-term OJT (+ 12,053) and moderate-term OJT (+8,636). Workers in occupations that require just a bachelor’s degree will account for over 17 percent of the total employment in 2016. Top Occupations by Education Level The 2014-2016 short-term occupations projections are used to identify the top ten occupations based on total openings and level of education or training needed. Top occupations requiring short to moderate-term training include service and support occupations. Healthcare occupations dominate the top new openings requiring long-term training to an associate’s degree, while the remainder of the occupations represent a variety of career options. The top occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher include Education, Information Technology and Management and Business occupations. Top Occupations by Skill The top ten occupations were analyzed for skill needs using WorkKeys® scores. WorkKeys® skill scores, for Reading for Information, Applied Mathematics, and Locating Information, provide a standardized scoring system ranging from 3 to 7 (low to high) and are based on national foundational and personal assessments used to measure cognitive abilities and the work potential of individuals. The majority of the top ten occupations based solely on total openings require short-term OJT. Registered Nurses and General and Operations Managers are the only two occupations that usually require a formal degree, while Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Drivers require training and specialized driver’s license. General and Operations Managers and Registered Nurses require the highest scores, at 5 for the WorkKeys® scores of Reading for Information and Applied Mathematics, and a score of 4 in the Locating Information section. Specific skills at this level might include applying technical terms and jargon and applying complex instructions that include conditionals to situations. The remaining eight occupations require scores of 3 or 4. These include specific skills such as converting simple money and time units and calculating averages, ratios, or rates using whole numbers and decimals. Fastest Growing Jobs by Education Level Fast growth in occupations means that they will provide a larger share of new positions in the future, thereby providing better employment prospects and more favorable conditions for mobility and advancement. Fueled by the growth in Healthcare, Technical and Education occupations, careers requiring Moderate-Term Training (1.7 percent) are expected to experience the largest growth rates over the short term. LONG-TERM PROJECTIONSJobs by Education Level Occupations typically requiring short-term OJT are expected to account for the largest portion of 2022 employment change. Occupations requiring short-term OJT are projected to experience the highest number of increased employment at over 88,000, or 7.6 percent growth. Employment in occupations requiring an associate’s degree or long-term OJT is also expected to grow by approximately 40,000, or 8.5 percent. Increased employment is also anticipated for occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree. Employment for this education level is projected to increase by over 10,000, or 7.8 percent. As estimated for the year 2022, sixty-six percent of workers in Missouri will be employed in occupations that require no formal postsecondary education (includes short-term OJT to work experience in a related occupation). Workers in occupations that require just a bachelor’s degree will account for over 17 percent of the total employment in 2022. Top Occupations by Education Level The 2012-2022 long-term occupations projections were used to identify the top ten occupations based on total openings and level of education or training needed. Top occupations requiring short to moderate-term training include service and support sector occupations. Healthcare, Supervisor and Maintenance and Carpenter occupations dominate the top new openings requiring at least long-term training or as much as an Associate’s degree. The top occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher include Education, Information Technology and Business and Financial occupations. Skills Gaps Analysis of the skills and education gaps that employers have identified is an important step in determining what training issues need to be addressed. National business surveys point to skills gaps that have negatively impacted the economy, such as a 2011 manufacturing survey that indicated 74 percent of respondents had workforce shortages or skills deficiencies in skill production jobs, even with a large number of unemployed manufacturing workers available for hire . At the state level, MERIC has developed target industry competency models, conducted business surveys, and recently acquired a real-time labor market skills demand tool that provides valuable insight into the needs of Missouri employers. MERIC conducted Industry Competency Model analysis for many of the state’s targeted industry sectors, such as Energy, Information Technology, Transportation, and Life Sciences. In doing so, the reports revealed that workers will need to enhance their existing skills sets to meet the demands of new and evolving technologies used in these growing industry sectors, and employers seek a good skill mix of both technical and soft skills in their workers. Interdisciplinary knowledge is a key ingredient to success, especially in high-tech sectors. Proficiency in rules and regulations was also rated as highly important and necessary for work in today’s complex business environment. The Industry Competency Model reports also highlighted issues related to the overall aging of the workforce. The imminent retirement of a large segment of workers across the targeted sectors could result in a shortage of this specialized labor pool. The ability to produce a sustainable pipeline of skilled workers will be important for the success of these sectors and the economy as a whole. Missouri employers indicate through job advertisements the basic and specialized skills needed to be successful in their business. While these needed skills do not necessarily point to gaps, it does provide a snapshot of skill demand and reinforces some of findings from earlier surveys and competency model analysis. MERIC researchers analyzed over 376,000 online job advertisements from November 2014 to October 2015, using a tool from Burning Glass Technologies, to determine what skills were in greatest demand over the year. When considering all occupations, common skills are listed the most in job advertisements and show that basic business fundamentals, communication, organization and writing skills are the most cited. Customer service skills and problem solving complete the list of top five common skills. Analysis of specific occupational clusters shows more targeted skill needs in jobs related to healthcare, information technology, finance, engineering and manufacturing. Many of these occupational clusters relate to the industries Missouri has targeted for economic growth. Basic skills cover a broad range of topics, such as reading and writing, applied math, logic flows, information gathering, ethics, etc., and mainly relate to the educational efforts of primary and secondary schools, institutions of higher learning, and workforce training programs. From the workers’ standpoint, many of these skills are hopefully gained through education and early work opportunities as a younger person however evidence from skills gap analysis suggest this is still a challenge. Partnerships by educators, businesses, workforce and economic developers should continue to focus efforts on this issue as these basic skills form the foundation for successful, occupation-specific training to follow. Specific occupational skills are learned through longer-term employment in an industry which provides training or through the more formal education of apprenticeships, community colleges, or four-year universities. Attaining these skills, outside of business experience and training, presents some challenges to job seekers, particularly those who have been unemployed for a long time period, and to educational institutions. Job seekers need affordable, flexible training alternatives, especially if the person needs to work while gaining new skills. Education providers work to keep up with industry trends and technology while also needing to adapt to new, cost-effective learning methods. As with basic skill development, stakeholders in a healthy, growing economy must also partner to meet the needs of both workers and business. Missouri’s opportunities for long-term economic growth will increasingly depend on a well educated, flexible workforce that responds quickly to changing business needs. Targeted efforts to prepare workers start at a young age, are honed through higher education and work experience, and are sustained by a culture and ability to embrace life-long learning. Taking bold, and sometimes difficult, steps to equip Missouri’s workforce for success will be one of the strongest economic development tools a state can have in retaining and attracting the industries of the future.

Occupational projections predict the number of workers needed in different educational and skill levels. In Missouri, the projections support the need for workers at all different skill and education levels. Through sector strategies, career pathways can minimize skills gaps since they are validated with the businesses in the area, leading to the success of the workforce. Through occupational projections we see the base skill level of the workforce, as well as increases and decreases in the need for those occupations. Using data from the projections, the charts below combine occupations by education and skill level, and illustrate the employment growth and need for educated and skilled workers at all levels over the 10 year projection period. From the charts, we see that a majority of the need will be replacing workers that move to a different occupation along the individual’s career pathway. Using the information learned in the sector strategies process, the workforce and educational system must be prepared to meet the local demands and prepare individuals for careers at different levels of training and education. Sector strategies and career pathways are reinforce the need for workers at all levels. Within the career pathways, an individual has multiple entry and exit points based on their current skills and knowledge, as well as the person’s willingness and capacity to continue their education and training to advance along the pathway. Through sector strategies, partnerships between all parties within the workforce system are formed. Career pathways are developed through the collaboration of employers, the education system, and workforce system. Within the career pathways, an individual has multiple entry and exit points based on current skills and knowledge, as well as the person’s willingness and capacity to continue to learn on the job, or through formal classroom education and/or training programs. The continued efforts of all WIOA partners ensure that all eligible persons, including those with disabilities, obtain skills to become or remain employed in high-demand, well-paid occupations. MERIC, the WIOA agency leadership and the Sector Strategy research will strive to incorporate real-time feed-back from employers about the current status of labor market information in each region and for the state. ___________________ Source: Boiling Point? The skills gap in U.S. manufacturing. Deloitte Consulting and the Manufacturing Institute, 2011. Complete report at http://www.themanufacturinginstitute.org Full report at http://www.missourieconomy.org/pdfs/2011_sostl.pdf