Narrative: II. a. 1. A.

The State of Arkansas is in many ways a reflection of the changes facing the nation as a whole. Despite a population size of only one percent of the nation, seven of the Fortune 500 companies are headquartered here. This list includes the largest retailer in the world (Walmart), one of the largest food producers in the world (Tyson), and a national chain of gas stations (Murphy USA). The other four companies making that list, Murphy Oil, Dillard’s, Windstream, and J.B. Hunt, further demonstrate the diverse economic base of the state. Arkansas is also fortunate to be home to major operations with companies headquartered in other states such as Baxter International, Lockheed Martin, Hewlett–Packard, FedEx, Post Foods, Kimberly–Clark, and Nucor to name a few. Arkansas has been fortunate to host the creation of unique information and service provider companies, such as Acxiom, Southwest Power Pool, and the aforementioned Windstream. The Arkansas workforce is cosmopolitan, with workers from all corners of the globe that come for the opportunities available in the Natural State.

Arkansas has many natural wonders and is a popular tourist destination. However, its greatest strength is in its human capital. Arkansas continues to be a leader in the extraction of energy and minerals, timber production, and agriculture. These industries also lead to a large number of jobs in the areas of support for these industries as well as in production of value–added products such as Tyson and Murphy USA. However, as reflected in the national trend, the Arkansas economy will generate most of its revenue through service industries. Much of Arkansas is rural, and the majority of service industries are located in metropolitan areas. This creates even greater challenges for economic development in the state’s rural areas. Despite the challenges, rural areas of the state continue to be home to numerous contract manufacturers as well as manufacturers of unique products.

The Arkansas Economic Commission has identified 15 targeted industries for the state:

Advanced Food Manufacturing and Packaging; Aerospace/Aviation; Biosciences; Data Centers; Distribution and Logistics Services; Firearms and Ammunition; Paper and Timber Products; Regional Headquarters; Smart Grid Technologies (Power Electronics); Software Development and Data Management Services; Steel Production; Sustainable Building Products and Fixtures; Technical Support Services; Transportation Equipment Manufacturing; and Walmart Suppliers. http://www.arkansasedc.com/industries

These targeted industries represent the diversity of Arkansas enterprises, a product of the natural resources, labor force, and entrepreneurial spirit available in the state.

To prepare this report and provide workforce boards in the state with tools for development planning in their own areas, data were downloaded and prepared from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services Labor Market Information (LMI) website, http://www.discoverarkansas.net/ . These data were then turned into interactive visualizations, which are available at the following websites. These visualizations can be downloaded as an image or in PDF format. The goal is to help stakeholders at the state and local level better understand future industry and occupational needs and to provide workforce development boards with the tools needed to better serve their areas.

The data available at http://arkansasresearchcenter.org/arc/index.php?cID=153 includes:

• Industries in 2012
• Job Growth in 2022
• Projected Job Growth by Workforce Development Area
• Projected Job Growth by Industry
• Percent Workforce in 2022

These data demonstrate the current makeup of the workforce by major industry, as well as projections of the number of jobs these industries will need in 2022. To the right of the visualizations are "filters" to help explore the data choosing multiple regions to compare, such as United States vs Arkansas, Arkansas vs. workforce region, or directly compare regions.

The data available at http://arkansasresearchcenter.org/arc/index.php?cID=154 includes:

• Arkansas Occupations, Current and 2022 Projections, which includes data visualizations concerning occupations in Arkansas, both currently and projections for 2022. Occupations are listed by their Standard Occupation Code (SOC) title. The SOC system is hierarchical. SOC Major codes are the top level occupational areas, such as "Construction and Extraction Occupations." At the next level would be SOC Minor, one of which for the above would be "Construction Trades Workers." Finally there is SOC Detail, such as "Stonemasons" or "Carpenters." This web tool allows users to manipulate the data by indicating the level of detail desired.

While Arkansas’s current and future industry outlook is similar to the nation, there are important areas of distinction. Manufacturing employs a greater percentage of Arkansas workers, 11.95 percent, than at the national level of 8.2 percent. Health Care and Social Assistance is also larger at 12.97 percent in the state compared to 11.68 percent at the nation, in part because of high poverty and obesity rates in the state. Arkansas lags the nation in the number employed in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, 2.97 percent to 5.55 percent, but leads the nation in Management of Companies and Enterprises, 2.34 percent to 1.38 percent. These two areas are of special interest in Arkansas because they provide some of the highest wages in the state. Arkansas also leads in the percentage of workers in Transportation and Warehousing, 4.1 percent to 3 percent. J.B. Hunt, the fifth leading commercial carrier in the nation, recently announced an expansion that will create over 1,000 jobs in the next six years. Despite the large role Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting play in the state, surprisingly, there are actually a smaller percentage of Arkansas workers in those industries than at the national level. While manufacturing and transportation play a large role in the state’s economy and employ a large number of its workers, these industries are also subject to increased efficiency which can lead to fewer jobs. Reference Graph 1: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart1.html

While Arkansas’s current workforce is somewhat similar to the nation’s, there are dramatic differences between regions of the state. For example, the industries which employ the greatest percentage of workers in the Southeast region of the state are much different than both the state and the nation.

A greater percentage of workers in the Southeast are in Manufacturing, 17.62 percent, and, not surprisingly, a much larger percentage of workers in this very rural area of the state are employed in Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting. The most dramatic difference is that while Health and Social Assistance employs 12.97 percent at the state level, only about 4 percent of workers in the Southeast are employed in that industry. This is somewhat counterintuitive since the Southeast is an area of the state with especially high rates of poverty. Each region of the state has something of a unique makeup of industries in its area, with its own challenges for meeting the needs of employers in that region. Reference Graph 2: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart2.html

Looking at industry projections for Arkansas and its local workforce development areas, these differences become even more readily apparent.

The Northwest local area is projected to continue to employ the largest number of Arkansans, over 300,000, and to have robust growth of 12.8 percent. However, the Central local area is projected to grow at a higher rate of 15.2 percent but will employ only about 200,000 workers. The North Central (13.83 percent), West Central (12.2 percent), and Northeast (12.14 percent) local areas are projected to have job growth at rates higher than the state average of 10.46 percent, while all other local areas will have below average growth. The Southeast local area is projected to have only 2.82 percent growth in jobs. The largest city in the Southeast, Pine Bluff, declined in population by 6.6 percent between 2000 and 2010 and declined another 4.43 percent between 2010 and 2013, earning it the title of one of the “Fastest Shrinking Cities” in the nation. While the projected growth of jobs in Arkansas by 2022 is similar to the projected growth rate of the nation, the industry sectors which will lead the growth vary greatly between local areas of the state.

Reference Graph 3: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart3.html The bubble chart below shows each of Arkansas’s local workforce development areas. The size of the bubble represents the number of jobs expected to be added to those local areas by 2022. The vertical axis represents the total number of jobs in those local areas, and the horizontal axis represents the percent of growth by local area.

A look at a specific industry sector such as manufacturing also demonstrates the different needs of employers in those local areas. While the Northwest is projected to continue to have the most workers employed in manufacturing, almost 35,000, the projected growth of 5.3 percent and addition of 1,766 manufacturing jobs is less than the 12.1 percent growth and addition of 2,350 jobs in the Northeast local area. The Southeast is projected to lose 685 jobs in that sector by 2022, a decline rate of 4.6 percent. Reference Graph 4 at: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart4.html

Manufacturing in Arkansas is very diverse, with the production of guided missiles, specialty petroleum products, railcars, heavy equipment, medical supplies, recreational boats, turbine blades, steel pipe, commercial trucks, tires, etc. This is in addition to the manufacturing of food products which is in virtually every region of the state, but also varies from the production of chips and cereal products in the Northeast, poultry products in the Northwest, and beef and pork processing in the West Central local area. What manufacturers in the state need in terms of a skilled workforce varies greatly by region, and the same is true for all other industry sectors. It is important that workforce development in the state be regionally focused and centered on the industry needs in those local areas.

The industries which will have the greatest rate of growth vary greatly between the national, state, and regional levels. Reference Graph 5: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart5.html

In this example of the industry sectors which are projected to have a rate of growth of 10 percent or higher, what is most striking about Arkansas projections is that construction is not a top area of growth for the state, even though it is projected to grow 28.8 percent at the national level. Arkansas’s second highest area of growth at 21.2 percent will be in Accommodation and Food Services, while this industry is expected to grow only 8 percent at the national level. There are much greater differences between the regions of the state.

The industries which will have the lowest rates of growth vary even more.

The five Arkansas industries projected to have a growth of less than 6.5 percent by 2022 are manufacturing, information, agriculture, utilities and federal employment. While manufacturing is projected to have a modest growth of 4.47 percent in the state, at the national level manufacturing is projected to lose jobs with a rate of –4.6 percent. In addition to these five state industries, at the national level, educational services, local government, and management of companies/enterprises are also projected to have less than a 6.5 percent growth rate. Reference Graph 6: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart6.html