Located in:
- II. Strategic Elements
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include a Strategic Planning Elements section that analyzes the State’s current economic environment and identifies the State’s overall vision for its workforce development system. The required elements in this section allow the State to develop data-driven goals for preparing an educated and skilled workforce and to identify successful strategies for aligning workforce development programs. Unless otherwise noted, all Strategic Planning Elements apply to Combined State Plan partner programs included in the plan as well as to core programs.
- a. Economic, Workforce, and Workforce Development Activities Analysis
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the economic conditions, economic development strategies, and labor market in which the State’s workforce system and programs will operate.
- a. Economic, Workforce, and Workforce Development Activities Analysis
II. a. 1. B. Workforce Analysis (B.I - B.IV)
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the current workforce, including individuals with barriers to employment, as defined in section 3 of WIOA.* This population must include individuals with disabilities among other groups** in the State and across regions identified by the State. This includes: Individuals with barriers to employment include displaced homemakers; low-income individuals; Indians, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians; individuals with disabilities, including youth who are individuals with disabilities; older individuals; ex-offenders; homeless individuals, or homeless children and youths; youth who are in or have aged out of the foster care system; individuals who are English language learners, individuals who have low levels of literacy, and individuals facing substantial cultural barriers; farmworkers (as defined at section 167(i) of WIOA and Training and Employment Guidance Letter No. 35-14); individuals within 2 years of exhausting lifetime eligibility under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program; single parents (including single pregnant women); and long-term unemployed individuals. ** Veterans, unemployed workers, and youth, and others that the State may identify.
i. Employment and Unemployment
Provide an analysis of current employment and unemployment data, including labor force participation rates, and trends in the State.
ii. Labor Market Trends
Provide an analysis of key labor market trends, including across existing industries and occupations.iii. Education and Skill Levels of the Workforce
Provide an analysis of the educational and skill levels of the workforce.
iv. Skill Gaps
Describe apparent ‘skill gaps’.
Current Narrative:
Demographics
The demographic makeup of Arkansas’s citizenry is changing in fundamental ways, as outlined in the “Arkansas Demographic Research Brief” published by the Institute for Economic Advancement at the Center for Economic Development at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock. (http://www.aiea.ualr.edu/images/rokdownloads/DemoRes/Research%20Publications%20and%20Briefs/DemChar.pdf)
An aging workforce is the most dramatic change and the one which has the greatest implications for workforce in the state. The ratio of aged persons to youth is expected to rise from 49.2 percent in 2000 to 60.7 percent in 2020. This increase in the number and proportion of aged persons has big implications for health and social services, education, available workforce, and other areas. Reference Graph 7: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart7.html
Another major demographic change will be greater diversity in the state, with the non-white population expected to rise to 30 percent by 2020, from a low of 18.4 percent in 1970. This increase in proportion is in large part attributable to an influx of Hispanics in the state, with the Hispanic population growing by 337 percent between 1990 and 2000. Reference Graph 8: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart8.html
The other area of major change in the demographics of Arkansas is increasing urbanization. In 2000, 56.7 percent of Arkansans lived in urban areas, but this portion is expected to rise to 61 percent by 2020. Reference Graph 9: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart9.html
The population of Arkansas grew to 2,966,369 in 2014, adding 7,604 between 2013 and 2014 and 50,451 between 2010 and 2014. Arkansas’s civilian labor force decreased 6,800 between 2013 and 2014, but employment increased 9,600 over the same period. Compared to 2004, the size of the civilian labor force is up a slight 300 while employment is down 5,200. Unemployment decreased 16,400 between 2013 and 2014, with the unemployment rate dropping by 1.3 percent. Compared to ten years ago, unemployment has increased 5,200 with the unemployment rate increasing by four-tenths of a percentage point to 6.1 percent in 2014 (see the chart below). The State’s unemployment rate continued to drop throughout 2015, with November 2015 declining to 5.0 percent. The table below reports the Arkansas civilian labor force estimates as annual averages.
| 2014 | 2013 | 2004 | 1-Year Change | 10-Year Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civilian Labor Force | 1,300,600 | 1,307,400 | 1,300,300 | -6,800 | 300 |
| Employment | 1,220,900 | 1,211,300 | 1,226,100 | 9,600 | -5,200 |
| Unemployment | 79,700 | 96,100 | 74,200 | -16,400 | 5,500 |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.1 | 7.4 | 5.7 | -1.3 | 0.4 |
Graph 10 shows the number of employed Arkansans from January 2005 to November 2015. Notice the decline at the start of the recession in 2008 and the steady increase that began towards the end of 2013. The number of employed has still not rebounded to pre-recession levels. Reference Graph 10: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart10.html
The table below shows Labor Force data calculated by the U.S. Census Bureau (based on the 2010-2014 American Community Survey). Labor Force data is included for various demographics, including age, race, sex, poverty status, disability status, and educational attainment. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
| Subject | Total Estimate | In Labor Force Estimate | Employed Estimate | Unemployment Rate Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population 16 years and over | 2,315,782 | 59.2% | 54.1% | 8.4% |
| AGE | ||||
| 16 to 19 years | 159,995 | 36.4% | 26.5% | 27.2% |
| 20 to 24 years | 205,824 | 72.8% | 61.2% | 15.2% |
| 25 to 44 years | 749,130 | 79.2% | 72.3% | 8.2% |
| 45 to 54 years | 395,446 | 74.7% | 70.2% | 5.8% |
| 55 to 64 years | 363,212 | 57.3% | 54.9% | 4.2% |
| 65 to 74 years | 251,769 | 22.2% | 21.3% | 4.3% |
| 75 years and over | 190,406 | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% |
| RACE AND HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN | ||||
| One race | 2,280,871 | 59.3% | 54.1% | 8.4% |
| White | 1,852,561 | 58.9% | 54.5% | 7.1% |
| Black or African American | 339,996 | 59.0% | 49.6% | 15.6% |
| American Indian and Alaska Native | 14,585 | 58.4% | 52.2% | 10.1% |
| Asian | 30,146 | 65.5% | 61.5% | 5.9% |
| Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander | 3,763 | 72.5% | 60.3% | 16.8% |
| Some other race | 39,820 | 72.6% | 67.2% | 7.2% |
| Two or more races | 34,911 | 56.4% | 49.5% | 11.6% |
| Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race) | 125,760 | 69.4% | 64.1% | 7.1% |
| White alone, not Hispanic or Latino | 1,771,732 | 58.5% | 54.1% | 7.1% |
| Population 20 to 64 years | 1,713,612 | 72.7% | 66.8% | 7.8% |
| SEX | ||||
| Male | 847,492 | 77.9% | 71.1% | 8.1% |
| Female | 866,120 | 67.7% | 62.6% | 7.4% |
| With own children under 6 years | 142,086 | 67.6% | 60.3% | 10.8% |
| POVERTY STATUS IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS | ||||
| Below poverty level | 293,401 | 50.5% | 36.5% | 27.7% |
| DISABILITY STATUS | ||||
| With any disability | 255,291 | 36.0% | 30.5% | 15.3% |
| EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT | ||||
| Population 25 to 64 years | 1,507,788 | 72.7% | 67.6% | 6.8% |
| Less than high school graduate | 200,172 | 55.6% | 48.9% | 12.0% |
| High school graduate (includes equivalency) | 516,823 | 69.2% | 63.4% | 8.3% |
| Some college or associate’s degree | 460,803 | 75.6% | 70.1% | 6.8% |
| Bachelor’s degree or higher | 329,990 | 84.7% | 82.0% | 2.8% |
| PERCENT IMPUTED | ||||
| Employment status for population 16 years and over | 5.7% | (X) | (X) | (X) |
The State of Arkansas had 1,157,630 average covered employees in 2014. Of those, 82.7 percent worked in the private sector, 1.7 percent worked in Federal Government, 6.1 percent worked in State Government, and 9.5 percent worked in Local Government.
Nonfarm Payroll Job Trends
Between 2013 and 2014, the average number of nonfarm payroll jobs rose 12,600. Eight major industry sectors posted over-the-year growth, while three sectors declined. Professional and business services added 4,700 jobs, mostly in administrative and support services (+3,200). Jobs in trade, transportation, and utilities rose 3,500. Most of the hiring occurred in retail trade (+2,600). Leisure and hospitality added 3,400 jobs between 2013 and 2014, largely in food services (+2,800). The largest annual decline occurred in government, down 1,500. Losses in local government (-1,800) more than offset minor gains in state government (+600).
Compared to 2004, average nonfarm payroll employment in 2014 increased 30,700. All the growth was in service providing industries (+83,400), which was partially offset by the losses in goods producing industries (-52,800). Seven major industry sectors expanded between 2004 and 2014, while four sectors declined. Educational and health services reported the largest increase, adding 29,600 jobs. Most of the hiring was in health care and social assistance (+27,800). Jobs in professional and business services rose 25,400, with growth seen across all three sub-sectors. Leisure and hospitality added 17,400 jobs over the decade, mostly in food services (+15,800). Government expanded by 13,000 jobs, largely attributed to gains in state government (+10,900). The largest decline between 2004 and 2014 occurred in manufacturing, which lost 49,100 jobs. Most of the loss was in durable goods manufacturing (-31,400). Smaller declines were reported in information (-6,100), construction (-5,500), and financial activities (-1,200). The table below reports the Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Jobs as annual averages.
| NAICS Industry | 2014 | 2013 | 2004 | 1 Year Change | 10 Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Nonfarm | 1,188,800 | 1,176,200 | 1,158,100 | 12,600 | 30,700 |
| Goods Producing | 209,400 | 207,700 | 262,200 | 1,700 | -52,800 |
| Natural Resources and Mining | 8,900 | 9,500 | 7,000 | -600 | 1,900 |
| Construction | 45,900 | 45,500 | 51,400 | 400 | -5,500 |
| Specialty Trade Contractors | 28,900 | 28,500 | 30,000 | 400 | -1,100 |
| Service-Providing | 979,300 | 968,500 | 895,900 | 10,800 | 83,400 |
| Manufacturing | 154,700 | 152,800 | 203,800 | 1,900 | -49,100 |
| Durable Goods Manufacturing | 76,700 | 75,600 | 108,100 | 1,100 | -31,400 |
| Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing | 78,000 | 77,200 | 95,700 | 800 | -17,700 |
| Trade, Transportation and Utilities | 244,800 | 241,300 | 242,000 | 3,500 | 2,800 |
| Wholesale Trade | 46,600 | 46,700 | 46,200 | -100 | 400 |
| Retail Trade | 135,900 | 133,300 | 130,800 | 2,600 | 5,100 |
| Transportation, Warehouse, and Utilities | 62,300 | 61,300 | 65,000 | 1,000 | -2,700 |
| Information | 13,700 | 14,200 | 19,800 | -500 | -6,100 |
| Financial Activities | 49,700 | 49,600 | 50,900 | 100 | -1,200 |
| Finance and Insurance | 36,800 | 36,400 | 37,600 | 400 | -800 |
| Real Estate and Rental and Leasing | 12,900 | 13,100 | 13,300 | -200 | -400 |
| Professional and Business Services | 133,600 | 128,900 | 108,200 | 4,700 | 25,400 |
| Professional, Scientific, and Technical | 40,300 | 39,900 | 33,700 | 400 | 6,600 |
| Management of Companies | 32,500 | 31,400 | 23,000 | 1,100 | 9,500 |
| Administrative and Support Services | 60,800 | 57,600 | 51,500 | 3,200 | 9,300 |
| Education and Health Services | 172,200 | 171,500 | 142,600 | 700 | 29,600 |
| Educational Services | 13,700 | 13,700 | 11,900 | 0 | 1,800 |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 158,400 | 157,800 | 130,600 | 600 | 27,800 |
| Ambulatory Health Care | 49,300 | 48,500 | 39,600 | 800 | 9,700 |
| Social Assistance | 36,900 | 36,300 | 23,600 | 600 | 13,300 |
| Leisure and Hospitality | 108,300 | 104,900 | 90,900 | 3,400 | 17,400 |
| Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation | 10,600 | 10,000 | 9,100 | 600 | 1,500 |
| Accommodation Services | 11,000 | 11,100 | 10,900 | -100 | 100 |
| Food Services | 86,700 | 83,900 | 70,900 | 2,800 | 15,800 |
| Other Services | 43,800 | 43,200 | 41,300 | 600 | 2,500 |
| Government | 213,400 | 214,900 | 200,400 | -1,500 | 13,000 |
| Federal Government | 20,200 | 20,400 | 20,800 | -200 | -600 |
| State Government | 77,400 | 76,800 | 66,500 | 600 | 10,900 |
| Local Government | 115,900 | 117,700 | 113,100 | -1,800 | 2,800 |
The job market in Arkansas is predicted to improve between 2014 and 2016 with 29,413 new jobs, an increase of 2.27 percent. Goods-producing industries are estimated to see a net gain of 3,122 jobs, while the service-providing industries are forecasted to increase 25,105. Arkansas’s self-employed ranks are estimated to experience a net gain of 1,186, an increase of slightly less than one percent. Professional and business services is projected to be the top growing major industry sector, adding 7,798 jobs to total 138,918.
Employment Projections by Skill and Education
Despite the vibrant business environment in Arkansas, it is difficult to ignore the disparity of prosperity and opportunity between regions in the state as well as groups of workers within those regions. This disparity among workers persists in even the most prosperous areas of the state and is seemingly institutionalized in the poorer regions. There are three key indicators of Arkansas’s workforce competiveness among other states in the union; it is 49th in the number of citizens with a bachelor’s degree, 46th in terms of poverty, and number one in terms of obesity rates. The challenges facing Arkansas in developing a dynamic and educated workforce to compete in a global marketplace are daunting. The barriers to prosperity are especially concentrated in historically poor regions of the state, as well as areas of poverty even within the state’s more prosperous areas.
One of the greatest challenges facing Arkansas’s workforce is the fact that it has one of the lowest levels of education in the nation. For example, the US Census Bureau has Arkansas ranked at 49th in the number of adults with a bachelor degree or more (https://www.census.gov/prod/2012pubs/p20-566.pdf?cssp=SERP). While nationwide 27.9 percent percent of Americans age 25 and older have a bachelor’s degree or more, only 18.9 percent of Arkansans have a bachelor’s or more, with West Virginia being the only state with a lower percentage of 17.3 percent.
What is even more striking is the disparity in education among different groups in the state. The ACT profile for the high school graduating class of 2015 has 28 percent of students in the nation scoring at or above ACT’s benchmark for college readiness, but only 21 percent of Arkansas 2015 graduates met that standard. However, only 4 percent of African Americans in the state met all four benchmarks, and only 14 percent of Latinos met those standards.
Arkansas finds itself lagging in educational attainment compared to most other states in the nation, and increasingly, the U.S. finds itself lagging behind an increasing number of nations. It is clear the twin forces of automation and globalization continue to create more opportunities for those with postsecondary education while the number of occupations available for those with a high school diploma or less continues to decrease. This is a global phenomenon, which a report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Skills Outlook 2013 demonstrates (http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/8713011e.pdf?expires=1462995223&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=DE0E588B16C9CD0BBB5885ED7E88BA41)
As a southern state, some areas of Arkansas may be in what Tony Carnevale, research professor and director for the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, describes as in a “low-wage/low-skill equilibrium,” where the supply of skills and demand for skills are balanced at low-education and low wage levels (https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/DecadeBehind.FullReport.073112.pdf). In such areas, low educational achievement is both a cause and consequence of the industries and occupations in those areas. Areas where the majority of occupations require little education provide fewer incentives for those seeking to improve their employment through education.
Areas with low levels of educational attainment in the state continue to have a higher concentration of jobs in manufacturing, utilities, and transportation. However, long-term job growth in these industries is easily compromised by the productivity growth that increases output with fewer workers. Manufacturing jobs are also susceptible to both global and regional competition, which have been demonstrated by the high number of trade certified company layoffs and closures in Arkansas. However, other companies in Arkansas have recently announced expansions which will create thousands of jobs.
While the majority of jobs in the Arkansas economy are low-skilled jobs (those that require a high school diploma or less), it is the middle-skill jobs that are projected to be the fastest growing skill group with a growth rate of 13.35 percent. Middle-skill jobs are defined as occupations that require more than a high school diploma, but less than a bachelor’s degree. Middle-skilled jobs are estimated to increase 21,390 and have 53,262 openings between 2012 and 2022. As seen on the chart below, the ratio of middle-skill job employment to total state employment is projected to go up from 12.33 percent in 2012 to 12.65 percent in 2022. The rate for low-skilled jobs is expected to fall slightly, as a percent of total employment.
Arkansas 2012-2022 Projections by Skill-Level
| Skill | 2012 | 2022 | Net Growth | Percent Growth | Growth Openings | Replacement Openings | Total Openings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle | 160,185 | 181,575 | 21,390 | 13.35% | 21,627 | 31,635 | 53,262 |
| Low | 915,470 | 1,002,034 | 86,564 | 9.46% | 90,828 | 220,022 | 310,850 |
| High | 223,533 | 251,526 | 27,993 | 12.56% | 28,079 | 46,864 | 74,943 |
Source: Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Assignments
Reference Graphs 11 and 12: http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart11.html and http://dws.arkansas.gov/WorkForcePlan/chart12.html
Every education category is projected to see positive net growth between 2014 and 2016. Occupations requiring less than a high school education are expected to add the most jobs during the projection period, adding 11,205 jobs. Jobs requiring a high school diploma or equivalent are estimated to increase 10,597. At 3.22 percent, jobs requiring less than a high school education are projected to be the fastest growing educational group. Occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree are expected to grow by 4,264 jobs or 2.28 percent. Growth in occupations requiring a master’s degree or doctoral or professional degree are estimated to be 2.02 percent and 2.55 percent respectively. Educational attainment of the State’s population aged 25 years and over shows that 83.7 percent have earned a high school diploma/equivalent or higher, while 20.1 percent have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher.
Projected Employment by Educational Attainment (2014-2016)
| Education Title | 2014 Estimated Employment | 2016Projected Employment | Net Growth | Percent Growth | Annual Openings-Growth | Annual Openings-Replacement | Annual Openings-Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doctoral or professional degree | 29,315 | 30,062 | 747 | 2.55% | 393 | 548 | 941 |
| Master’s degree | 18,769 | 19,148 | 379 | 2.02% | 214 | 358 | 572 |
| Bachelor’s degree | 187,025 | 191,289 | 4,264 | 2.28% | 1,663 | 3,584 | 5,247 |
| Associate’s degree | 43,336 | 43,900 | 564 | 1.30% | 486 | 827 | 1,313 |
| Postsecondary non-degree award | 99,501 | 100,989 | 1,488 | 1.50% | 972 | 1,850 | 2,822 |
| Some college, no degree | 13,398 | 13,567 | 169 | 1.26% | 45 | 280 | 325 |
| High school diploma or equivalent | 558,687 | 569,284 | 10,597 | 1.90% | 3,734 | 11,533 | 15,267 |
| Less than high school | 347,741 | 358,946 | 11,205 | 3.22% | 3,130 | 10,939 | 14,069 |
In the chart below (based on employment in 2012), the workers (red bar) are an estimate of the number of people in the labor force who have obtained the level of education needed for the occupation. The jobs (blue bar) are an estimate of the number actually employed in the occupation. For both middle-skilled and high-skilled occupations, the number of workers trained for those occupations is higher than those employed in the occupation. The gap for middle-skilled occupations is high, with 398,458 trained for the occupation and 160,185 actually in the occupation. For high-skilled jobs, the gap is much lower. The gap for low-skilled jobs is reversed, where the people actually working in these jobs is much higher than those who have trained for these jobs. This can be interpreted to mean that a large number of workers trained in middle and high-skilled occupations are employed in lower-skilled occupations. The charts below indicate roughly more than 250,000 workers are underemployed, with the majority affecting middle-skilled occupations.
The chart below includes five high-demand occupations that require middle-skill training.
High Demand Middle-Skill Occupations (by Industry and Wage)
| High-Demand Middle-Skilled Jobs | Industry | 2014 Wages |
|---|---|---|
| Registered Nurses | Healthcare | $ 56,480 |
| First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers | Manufacturing | $ 50,240 |
| Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians | Aerospace | $ 43,240 |
| Computer User Support Specialists | Information Technology | $ 41,210 |
| Heavy and Tractor Trailer Truck Drivers | Trucking | $ 36,350 |
Skill Gaps
Recent surveys of employers attending statewide regional advisory council meetings of the Career and Technical Education program indicated that the skills needed by employers fall into four groups - 1) soft skills, 2) basic/core skills, 3) technical skills and 4) education programming and promotion. Of the responding employers, 91 percent indicated that soft skills and basic core skills were needed and only nine percent indicated that technical skills were an issue. Many employers indicated that if they could find workers that had the soft, basic core skills, they could train them for the technical skills needed.
- Soft Skills refers to areas including attendance, ownership, initiative, attitude, work ethic, perspective, teamwork, customer service, dress code, and professionalism
- Basis /Core Skills refers to interviewing, resumes, computer skills (MS Office software), math, problem solving, communication, writing, reading, troubleshooting, critical thinking, and attention to detail
- Technical Skills refers to a particular job skill such as electronics, maintenance, tool & die, certified nursing assistant, welding, technical certifications, robotics, equipment and computer programming, computer aided design, math, biology, chemistry, and drawings and schematics.
- Education Programming and Promotion refers to demonstrations by employers at schools, internships, job shadowing, apprenticeships, tours, mentoring, job/career fairs, concurrent credit, equipment donations, and work-based learning for students, teachers, counselors, career coaches, parents, and administrators.
In addition to the data collected at the regional advisory councils, the Arkansas State Chamber conducted a survey of business leaders in order to better understand the employment needs of Arkansas manufacturing and trade businesses. The online survey included 168 respondents representing manufacturing, construction, transportation, utilities, agriculture, forestry, mining, wholesale trade, and other related industries. The results of the survey were analyzed and four key items were identified by the Chamber:
- Lack of Qualified Workers - 82 percent of companies regularly have jobs or positions that they are not able to fill with qualified workers based on specific skill sets.
- Reasonable Education Requirements - 84 percent of companies are looking for an educational attainment of two-year degree or less.
- High Wage Jobs Available - 44 percent of average, entry level salaries for open positions are between $31,000 and $50,000.
- Lack of Partnerships - Employers are aware of training programs, but too many are not partnering with them for recruiting purposes.
The survey also collected data from the respondents related to key skills required, key recruiting efforts, and key problem areas.
- Key skills required
- CAD
- Computer Programming
- Blueprint Reading
- Electrical
- Engineering
- Fork Lift Operation
- Machining
- Welding
- CNC Programming
- Tool & Die
- Trucking
- Key recruiting efforts
- Workforce Centers
- Word of Mouth/Employee Referrals - best employees come through this way
- Temp Agencies
- Newspaper Ads
- Training Certification Schools
- Online Advertising (Monster, Craig’s List, Career Builder)
- Key problem areas
- Attendance
- Problem Solving/Analytical Thinking
- Interpersonal Skills/Teamwork
- Following Directions/Reading & Using Information
- Basic Computer Skills
- Drugs