Narrative: II. a. 1. A.

a) ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Louisiana is a major energy producing state. In 2017 Quarter 3, the Mining industry accounted for just over 5.3 percent of Louisiana’s $2.1 billion Gross Domestic Product (GDP), more than double the percentage of Mining-related GDP nationally.

Mining and Logging employment dropped steeply throughout 2015 and 2016, but has averaged roughly 35,000 jobs throughout 2017, despite over-the-year employment losses in the first ten months. Louisiana Workforce Commission (LWC) forecasts anticipate continued decline through 2018 and minimal change - a loss of 75 jobs - through 2024.

Despite the flagging Mining industry, Louisiana’s long term outlook is encouraging. The state expects a 7.1 percent rise in employment - over 146,000 new jobs - through 2024.

The Health Care and Social Assistance industry - a backbone of the state’s economy accounting for 7.5 percent of total real GDP in 2017 Quarter 3 - is the largest contributor to long term growth, accounting for nearly 30 percent of total forecasted growth through 2024.

Health Care and Social Assistance has grown over 11 percent since January 2012, and the industry has posted over-the-year gains every month since August 2006. Health Care and Social Assistance accounted for 13.6 percent of Louisiana’s total employment in December 2017, and the industry is further highlighted in Existing Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations below.

Despite the rocky past few years, Louisiana’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has continued to decline, reaching 4.6 percent in December 2017. Labor force participation declined through 2016, before making a small comeback in 2017 and ending the year at 58.7 percent.

Louisiana is home to nine Metropolitan Statistical Areas, with Hammond as the most recent addition. Three of the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) were moderately to severely impacted by the decline in oil prices. Several MSAs saw some stagnation in employment, while one saw meteoric increases. Below are the employment highlights of the nine MSAs and the eight regions encompassing them.

• The New Orleans region - Louisiana’s largest by employment - anticipates growth above the state average through 2018, although at 6.2 percent its long term growth is just below that expected by the state. Six of 22 industries in the region anticipate double digit growth through 2024. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment in the MSA, which covers the same parishes as the region, has remained somewhat stymied over the past three years, although the not seasonally adjusted (NSA) unemployment rate has steadily declined over the same time period.
• The Baton Rouge region, which includes both the Baton Rouge and Hammond MSAs, has a positive outlook, with both short and long term employment projections predicting growth outstripping that of the state. The Health Care and Social Assistance industry is poised to add the most jobs, with over 38,000 new jobs expected through 2024. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment has been on the rise in the MSA, despite a temporary 7,400 decline in August 2016 after the Baton Rouge flooding. The NSA unemployment rate in the MSA has experienced steady decline over the past three years.
• Both the three-parish Houma region and two-parish Houma MSA reflect the negative repercussions of declining oil prices. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment in the MSA has declined 15.6 percent since January 2015, although the losses have slowed considerably in 2017. The Houma region is one of two regions anticipating negative growth through 2018. Optimistically, employment is expected to rise 6.6 percent through 2024, and the unemployment rate has dropped considerably since mid-2016; as of December 2017 the rate was 4.1 percent.
• Lafayette is the second region hard-hit by the drop in oil prices: short term growth in the region is projected to be -2.2 percent. The long term outlook is stronger, with 7.3 percent employment growth anticipated through 2024. Much like Houma, seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment in the MSA declined considerable through mid-2016; the MSA lost nearly 11 percent of jobs between January 2015 and December 2017. However, employment appears to have stabilized at just fewer than 200,000 jobs over the past 18 months; the NSA unemployment rate has been on the decline during that same time period.
• The Lake Charles region leads the state in employment growth; a staggering 6.5 percent growth is expected through 2018, and 8.1 percent through 2024. Transportation and Warehousing is responsible for much of the long-term growth, while Construction drives much of the short-term growth. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment in the MSA has been on the rise over the past three years, with 13.3 percent more jobs in December 2017 than in January 2015. The unemployment rate mirrors the MSA’s boom; at 3.2 percent Lake Charles had the lowest rate of all the MSAs in December 2017.
• Despite a declining unemployment rate, the Alexandria MSA has also shown a modest 1.8 percent decline in seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment over the past three years. The region posts and unexceptional short and long term forecast, with both coming in just below state average. Despite that, the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services industry anticipates over 35 percent employment growth through 2024, and another four industries project double digit employment growth through the same time period.
• Shreveport was the third area noticeably affected by oil prices, although it was not nearly as hard hit as either Houma or Lake Charles. The MSA has seen a 3.9 percent decline in seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment over the past three years, although the NSA unemployment rate has slowly declined over the same time period. Short term growth is projected to be just below the state average, while long term growth is just over state average. Health Care and Social Assistance expects to add the most jobs through 2024, at over 6,300, or 15.1 percent growth.
• The Monroe MSA has tracked slow but steady growth over the past three years, with seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment rising 1.7 percent. The unemployment rate has nearly halved over that same time period, falling from 8 percent in January 2015 to 4.1 percent in December 2017. The Monroe region projects above average growth through 2018, with Health Care and Social Assistance expected to add 862 jobs. Long term growth is projected at 6.6 percent, below state average but not the smallest growth in the state.
• The Hammond MSA is Louisiana’s newest and smallest MSA. Composed of just Tangipahoa Parish, it is part of the Baton Rouge region. It is also the only MSA for which seasonally adjusted employment data is not available. The MSA has experienced a steady climb in not seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment, adding 2,600 jobs over the past three years. The unemployment rate, in keeping with state trend, has also fallen, although at 4.4 percent it was second highest in the state in December 2017.

All nine MSAs and eight regions are making strides to put the state on target to reach its projected employment of just over 2 million jobs through 2018. The continually declining unemployment rate in all MSAs is another positive sign that the state is slowly regaining the ground lost to falling oil prices.

The Louisiana Workforce Commission’s Helping Individuals Reach Employment (HiRE) Platform, and the Louisiana Occupational Information System (LOIS), are the state’s Virtual Labor Market Information Web Portal. This interactive site provides users with access to the latest Louisiana labor force, wages, population, industry employment, training schools, training programs, report for completion rates, projections, demographics, nonfarm employment, employer database, unemployment claimants, industry staffing patterns, licensed occupations, demand occupations, and career products. The LMI tables and charts and figures that follow provide projections for Louisiana’s long term industry growth.

Sources: The preceding section cited data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Current Employment Statistics Program, the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, and LWC Short Term and Long Term Industry Projections.

i. EXISTING DEMAND INDUSTRY SECTORS AND OCCUPATIONS^[1]

Louisiana’s short term and long term employment projections suggest that the annual average workforce demand will increase at 1.2 percent, the same rate as the national annual average workforce demand. Table 1 shows short term and long term growth for the state and its eight regions. The Lake Charles region anticipates the most growth in the short term, while the Baton Rouge region predicts the most through 2024.

Table 1: Short Term and Long Term Industry Growth by Region

*Regional Labor Market Area

Table 2 highlights the ten fastest growing industry subsectors in Louisiana through 2018. While Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing has the highest rate, Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction is expected to add the most jobs.

Table 2: Short Term Growth Rate in Top Louisiana Industries

*North American Industry Classification System

In Table 3, various subsectors of the healthcare and transportation industries dominate the top growing subsectors in Louisiana. Healthcare and Social Assistance enjoys projected double digit growth in all eight regions across the state, and Professional and Technical Services projects the same in seven of the eight regions.

High demand occupations are those with three, four, or five star rankings as determined by the Louisiana Workforce Commission. LWC’s star ratings system takes into account wages, job openings, employment, and projected growth for over six hundred occupations, both statewide and regionally. Table 4 shows some of the highest rated occupations sorted by employment.

Table 4: Top 20 High-Demand Occupations by Employment

1. EMERGING DEMAND INDUSTRY SECTORS AND OCCUPATIONS^[2]

Figure 1: 2024 Industry Projections for Louisiana, Two-Digit NAICS

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_01.jpg

Figure 1 provides projections on what industries are expected to experience the greatest growth by 2024. The highest growth occupation according to these projections will be the medical field. The aging of the baby boom generation will necessitate more people working to care for this segment of the population. Specifically, these projections show the Health Care and Social Assistance Industry growing by 41,446 through 2024. Table 5 echoes these results.

Table 5: 2024 Industry Projections for Louisiana, Highest Forecasted Growth Jobs

Table 6: 2024 Occupational Projections for Louisiana, Highest Forecasted Growth Jobs

Figure 2: Projected Employment through 2024 in the Health Care and Social Assistance Industry

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_02.jpg