Narrative: II. a. 1. B.

(i) Employment and Unemployment

Figure 3: Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, LA (January 2015- December 2017)

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_03.jpg

Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES) Program.

Figure 4: Total Employment for Selected Sectors, Seasonally Adjusted, LA (2017)

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_04.jpg

Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES) Program.

Figure 5: Over the Year Change in Total Nonfarm and Private Sector Jobs Seasonally Adjusted (SA), LA

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_05.jpg

Source: Nonfarm, Private, and Government Employment Data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program

Figure 5 shows the over-the-year change in total nonfarm jobs in Louisiana. The state saw a slump in nonfarm jobs from mid-2015 but has been on the rise since April 2017. Another trend evident in Figure 5 is the decline in the number of jobs in the public sector. The difference between these data series represents the over-the-year change in all government employment in Louisiana. More clearly, Figure 6 demonstrates the year-over-year change in the number of total government employees (federal, state, and local) over the last four years.

Figure 6: Year over Year Change in Total Government Jobs (SA)http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_06.jpg

Source: Nonfarm, Private, and Government Employment Data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program

Figure 7: United States and Louisiana Employed to Unemployed Ratio

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_07.jpg

Source: Employment and Unemployment data produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program

While the labor force participation rate in Louisiana is below the national level, it mimics the overall trends found nationally. Similarly Louisiana’s employed to unemployed ratio—which compares the rate at which people are finding jobs to the rate at which they are being separated—reflects the national trend but at a higher level (Figure 9). While the US reached its pre-recession level of 19 percent in January 2016, Louisiana’s employment to unemployment ratio remains just below the 22.3 percent enjoyed in January 2008, although it breached 20 percent in November 2017.

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_07-RF.jpg

Figure 8: Initial Weekly UI Claims, January 2015 to January 2018

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_08.jpg

Source: Weekly Unemployment Claims produced by Louisiana Workforce Commission.

Figure 8 above illustrates the number of weekly initial unemployment insurance claims from January 2015 to January 2018. The green linear trend line marks the modest decline in weekly claims over the past three years. A significant jump in claims is visible in August 2016, likely a result of the Baton Rouge area flooding. Along with the graph on the following page, illustrating continued claims, the general trend in unemployment insurance claims suggests improving labor market conditions in Louisiana.

Figure 9:Continued Weekly UI Claims, January 2015 to January 2018

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_09.jpg

Source: Weekly Unemployment Claims produced by Louisiana Workforce Commission.

Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services (WPRS) Model

Changes to the U.S. economy—including the contraction of entire industries as a result of changes in technology and overseas competition—have led to increases in the length of unemployment. Unemployed workers are now less likely to be rehired by their previous employers and are at a greater risk of long-term unemployment than in the past. As a result, the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services (WPRS) system was established nationwide following the 1993 enactment of PL 103-152. Profiling is designed to identify UI claimants who are most likely to exhaust their regular benefits, so that they may receive reemployment services that will help them find a job more quickly.

Louisiana Workforce Commission’s Labor Market Information developed a model for profiling all new claimants for regular UI benefits. The WPRS system strengthens the link between Unemployment insurance and Employment Services for those most likely to exhaust benefits. The worker profiling model for Louisiana helps us achieve the objectives of reducing the weeks of UI benefits, reducing UI benefits per beneficiary, increasing earnings per beneficiary, and providing a management tool for targeting resources and aiding staff in understanding the customers they serve.

(ii) LABOR MARKET TRENDS

Figure 10: National and State Labor Force Participation Rate, January 2013-December 2017

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_10.jpg

Source: Labor Force data produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program.

The labor force participation rate is a measure of how well labor force growth has kept pace with population growth. Both nationally and in Louisiana, participation rates have experienced a slight decline in recent years. It is widely expected that this will continue in future periods as the baby boom population leaves the labor force and enters retirement.

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_10-RF.jpg

Figure 11: Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate in Louisiana (January 2013- December 2017)

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_11.jpg

Source: Labor Force data produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program.

Figure 12: Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate in U.S. (January 2013- December 2017)http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_12.jpg

Source: Labor Force data produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program.

Figures 11 and 12 above show the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate from January 2013 to December 2017. No recessions have occurred in this time period, although oil prices saw a strong decline that began in mid-2014. It is encouraging that in recent months Louisiana has experienced both a decline in the unemployment rate and growth in the labor force participation rate.

Table 12: Employment Status of the Civilian Non-Institutional Population, Annual Averages, Louisiana (June 2016-May 2017)

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_12.jpg

The Current Population Survey (CPS) provides estimates of the composition of the Civilian Non-Institutional Labor Force. The labor force is all individuals over the age of 16 that are employed or unemployed and actively seeking a job. The chart above provides some information on how different ethnic groups and genders are represented in Louisiana’s workforce. From this information, the proportion of each race in the labor force is approximately equal to the proportion of the race of the population. By gender, it is clear that males comprise a significantly larger proportion of the labor force than the total population.

Table 13: Civilians Not in the Labor Force by Sex and Age, Annual Averages, Louisiana (June 2016-May 2017)

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_13.jpg

Figure 13: Statewide Household Income Distribution, 2016

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_13.jpg

Purple poverty line represents a household of four making less than $23,850/year.

Source: Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program.

(iii) EDUCATION AND SKILL LEVELS OF THE WORKFORCE

Table 14: Educational Attainment of the Population Aged 18 to 24 Years

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_14.jpg

Tables 14 and 15 highlight the educational achievements of Louisiana’s population. Table 14 looks at a younger cohort, aged 18 to 24, who may still be in postsecondary education. Their relative age likely accounts for the low percentage of Bachelor’s degree or higher completers, and the high percentage of ‘some college or associate’s degree’ completers.

Table 15 studies a slightly older population more likely to have left the educational system. Louisiana’s women lead the charge in education, with over 50 percent of high school diplomas, Associate’s degrees, Bachelor’s degrees, and Master’s degrees held by women. Of the nearly 500,000 Louisianans who did not graduate high school, 53.7 percent are men.

Table 15: Educational Attainment of the Population Aged 25 Years and Over

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_15.jpg

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_16.jpg*Disabilities are not mutually exclusive

Source: 2016 ACS 1-Year Survey, Table B18120

Over 384,000 Louisianans aged 16 to 64, or 13.7 percent of the state’s population, live with one or more disabilities. Residents with disabilities account for 15.1 percent of the unemployed and only 6.4 percent of the employed population; 31.2 percent of those not in the labor force also have at least one disability.

Table 16 highlights the rates at which various disability characteristics appear in the employed, unemployed, and not in the labor force populations. Disability characteristics are not mutually exclusive, meaning one individual may have multiple difficulties, accounting for the high percentages.

Table 17: Labor Force Status of Veterans Aged 18 to 64

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_17.jpg

Table 17 breaks out the labor force status of Louisiana veterans aged 18 to 64. Veterans in Louisiana have a fairly high labor force participation rate, with over 70 percent of those aged 18 to 64 part of the labor force. Veterans account for 5.2 percent of Louisiana’s population and a proportional 5.3 percent of Louisiana’s labor force; only 4.8 percent of those not in the labor force are veterans.

Table 18 compares incarceration rates statewide and nationally. Louisiana has the highest incarceration rate in the nation, with 762 of every 100,000 residents behind bars in 2016. 99.9 percent of those incarcerated have sentences in excess of one year.^[1]

Table 18: 2016 Year End Population Jurisdiction Population Rates (Per 100,000 U.S. Residents)

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_18.jpg

In 2016 the state had 16,404 releases and 15,968 total admissions to the prison system. 65 percent of the admissions were new court commitments, and 34.4 percent were parole violators. 91.8 percent of the releases were conditional; another 6.7 percent of releases were unconditional. Another 0.8 percent of releases were attributable to death and 0.6 were AWOL/escape, according to the Bureau of Justice

(iv) SKILL GAPS

Table 19: Public Postsecondary Education Program Completers by Degree Level with Projected Annual Openings

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_19.jpg

Source: Annual Projected Openings from LWC’s Long Term Occupational Projections. Louisiana Board of Regents Degrees and Certificates Awarded by Degree, Degree Level, Gender, Race, and Citizenship.

Table 19 shows the number of completers from Louisiana’s public postsecondary education programs by degree level for academic years 2012 through 2016. The academic years are labeled by the year in which they begin, so 2016 is the school year beginning in June 2016 and ending in May 2017.

The completer data are compared to the number of annual openings from LWC’s long-term projections, which provide an approximation of what skill levels may show gaps in the future. ‘Some Postsecondary, No Degree’ awards show the largest gap, with half as many graduates in 2016 as annual projected openings through 2024. Bachelor’s degrees show another large skills mismatch, with nearly 19,000 graduates in 2016-2017, and only 8,540 annual projected openings.

Below is further breakdown of degrees awarded by occupational category. The same comparison is drawn between 2016 graduates and annual projected job openings through 2024. Construction occupations that do not require post-secondary education are excluded from the Annual Projected Openings to provide better comparison for Construction occupation post-secondary completers.

Table 20:Public Postsecondary Education Program Completers by Occupational Group with Projected Annual Openings

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_20.jpg

Louisiana has 113 occupations with high demand (3, 4, or 5 stars) and high base year employment (employment greater than or equal to 2,500). Table 21 shows the star ratings, ten year growth, and education levels required of each occupation.

http://www.laworks.net/Downloads/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Table_21.pdf

Source: LWC’s Long Term Occupational Projections

Figure 14 shows the top ten most frequently appearing knowledge, skills, and abilities associated with these 113 occupations. These represent the skills, knowledge, and abilities needed by the workforce through 2024.

Figure 14: Key Knowledge Areas of Top Occupations

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_14.jpg

Source: O*net Online Summary Report, www.onetonline.org

Figure 15: Key Skills of Top Occupations

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_15.jpg

Source: O*net Online Summary Report, www.onetonline.org

Figure 16: Key Abilities of Top Occupations

http://www.laworks.net/Images/WIOA/2018StatePlan-Figure_16.jpg

Source: O*net Online Summary Report, www.onetonline.org

[1] Bureau of Justice Statistics Corrections Statistical Analysis Tool