Narrative: II. a. 1. B.

THE 2021 ARKANSAS LABOR MARKET AND ECONOMIC REPORT WAS PRODUCED BY THE OCCUPATIONAL/CAREER INFORMATION SECTION OF OF THE ARKANSAS DIVISION OF WORKFORCE SERVICE'S LABOR MARKET INFORMATION UNIT. THIS REPORT PROVIDES RELEVANT INFORMATION ABOUT THE ECONOMY OF ARKANSAS AND THE TEN (10) LOCAL WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT AREAS.

THIS REPORT MAY BE ACCESSED AT: https://www.discover.arkansas.gov/_docs/Publications/Economic-Report-OCI/Economic-Report.pdf

COVID-19
Some of the data in this economic report reflects the impact of COVID-19 while other data sets may not yet reflect the impact. It is unknown what the full impact of COVID-19 will be on the data.

Population

The state of Arkansas’ population shrunk to 3,011,542 in 2020, declining 4,262 from 2019 to 2020 but
increasing 21,132 from 2016 to 2020.  Of Arkansas’s 10 Local Workforce Development Areas (LWDAs), Northwest Arkansas saw the largest increase in population, adding 20,888 in 2020. The Eastern, North Central, Southeast, Southwest, West Central, and Western Arkansas LWDAs saw decreasing populations in 2020.

Age Distribution

An analysis of Arkansas’ population distribution by gender and age group for 2010, 2018 and 2030 revealed that between 2010-18 the number of people 65+ grew substantially while the younger population (under-20) reduced. In fact, the 65+ group increased its share of the total population from 14.4% in 2010 to 17.0% in 2018, a growth of about 90,000 people. During the same period, the under 20 age group went down from 27.3% to 26.0%, a net decrease of about 14,000. Based on the population projections, by 2030, 26.7% of the state population will be under age 20 while 20.3% will be age 65 or older resulting in the older population continuing to increase its share of the total population.

Racial and Ethnic Composition

This subsection describes the projected racial and ethnic composition of the state population from 2013-2060.  Four major ethno-racial groups are identified: whites, blacks, Hispanics, and other races. Hispanics are not a racial group but rather an ethnic group, which means that whites, blacks and other races are found in this group. In this study, the whites, blacks and other races groups exclude Hispanics.  The ethno-racial composition of the total population (all ages) and the younger population (under age 20) are examined.

Whites constitute the current and projected predominant population group in Arkansas. The under 20 age group is more diverse than the total population with whites constituting 63.7% of the under 20 population in 2018 as compared to 72.2% of the total population (all ages).

The white population group is expected to experience a decrease in its share of the total population from 72.2% in 2018 to a projected 68.1% in 2030, a decrease of about 4.1 percentage points.  The trend is also expected for the under age 20 population, with the share of the white group decreasing from 63.7% in 2018 to a projected 59.0% in 2030, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points.

The remaining three groups (blacks, Hispanics, and other races), all are expected to show an increase in their share of total population. However, the Hispanics are anticipated to experience the largest percentage growth going from 7.7% in 2018 to 10.1% in 2030.  This is also true for the under age 20 population with the Hispanic group growing from 11.6% in 2018 to 14.5% in 2030.

Urban-Rural

There are two different definitions that categorize urban and rural areas in the country, one developed by the US Census Bureau and the other by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The US Census Bureau defines urban and rural areas based strictly on population size and density and they do not necessarily follow municipal boundaries. The OMB follows a regional-economic concept to define counties or county-equivalent units as metropolitan, micropolitan or neither. A metropolitan area (MSA) consists of one or more counties with a core urban population of 50,000+ and a micropolitan area has a core urban population of at least 10,000 but less than 50,000. Metropolitan areas are categorized as urban while counties that are not part of a metropolitan area are considered rural.  

This subsection follows the OMB definition of urban and rural to classify the state counties into three major groups: metropolitan, micropolitan, and other rural.  The majority of the state population is urban. In 2010, about 60% of all Arkansans lived in metropolitan areas while about 40% lived in rural areas (micropolitan and other rural). Population estimates from 2010-18 show that metropolitan areas are growing steadily but modestly. On the other hand, the populations of the micropolitan and other rural areas keep shrinking.  In 2018, the share of all Arkansans living in urban areas grew to 62.5% while population in rural areas (micropolitan and other rural) decreased to 37.5%. 

Metropolitan Areas

Out of eight metropolitan areas, Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Fort Smith, and Jonesboro are the most populated. In 2010, these four areas alone hosted close to half (49.6%) of the state population and in 2018, their share passed the halfway mark with 52.8% of all Arkansans living in these metropolitan areas.

In 2018, 21.1% of the state population lived in Pulaski, Faulkner and Saline counties in the LR-NLR-Conway metropolitan area. In the same year, within the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers area, Benton and Washington counties were the most populated sharing 16.9% of the total population. Between 2010 and 2018, most of the gains in the state urban population came from population growth in Benton and Washington.  During this period, these two counties alone increased their share of total population by 2.3 percentage points.

In general terms, the population in a geographic region can vary over time due to changes in several factors: number of births, deaths, and migration. For instance, in 2011, 52.6% of the population change (from the previous year) in the LR-NLR-Conway MSA was due to migration into the area.  Out of this, domestic migration accounted for 40.3% while international migration contributed 12.3%.  On the other hand, in 2016, 18.9% of the population change was due to domestic migration out of the region (hence a negative percentage) while 32.7% was due to international migration into the area.

The overall migration patterns for these two metro areas are different.  During this period, the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers area experienced consistently positive international and domestic migration accounting jointly for about 60% or more of their annual population change. On the other hand, domestic migration in the LR-NLR-Conway area has been decreasing over the years and at times has even been negative. Since 2014, annual international migration in this area has accounted for a larger share of population change compared to their domestic counterpart.

Industry

This section describes projected labor demand trends by industry sector for the state and Local Workforce Development Areas (WDA) for the decade of 2018-28.  The analysis is based on the long-term (2018-28) State and Local WDA industry projections published by the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services and the national long-term industry projections published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industries analyzed include all the 2-digit industry sectors defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), except for two – the self-employed and government sectors.

According to our data, labor demand in the state is expected to increase by 118,681 jobs between 2018-28, an 8.42 percent increase. Goods-Producing industries are expected to add 10,940 new jobs, while the Services-Providing industries should see most of the growth, with 100,981 new jobs being added. Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers could see 6,760 more jobs during this period.

The Natural Resources and Mining supersector is expected to gain 955 jobs during the projection period. Driving the growth is the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting sector, which could see a gain of 891 jobs over the projection period. However, Logging could see a loss of 306 jobs, placing among the Top 10 of the Top 20 Declining Industries list. The Mining sector is slated to experience a net gain of 64 jobs. While Support Activities for Mining could see a gain of 80 jobs, Oil and Gas Extraction is predicted to lose 65.

Construction is estimated to be the top and fastest growing among Goods-Producing supersectors, adding 5,967 jobs, or 11.75 percent to its workforce during the projection period. More than 66 percent of the growth could come in the Specialty Trade Contractors subsector, with a growth of 3,965 new jobs over the 10-year period. Driving this growth is Building Equipment Contractors, which is forecast to add 2,635 new jobs, an increase of 14.95 percent, making the Top 20 Growing
Industries list. On the negative side of the economy, Land Subdivision could see a loss of more than a third of its workforce, placing second in the state in percent decline.

The Manufacturing supersector is expected to increase employment by 4,018 jobs by 2028. Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing could see 3,027 of these jobs and the Food Manufacturing subsector is the driving force behind the growth, with a projected gain of 2,329. Animal Slaughtering and Processing is the top growing industry in Manufacturing, with a growth of 1,417 jobs. Fabric Mills is forecasted to be the fastest growing industry in the state between 2018 and 2028,
nearly tripling in size, as an influx of clothing and fabric manufacturing firms have expressed interest in the state over the years. However, on the negative side of the job market, several Non-Durable GoodsManufacturing industries, five, in all, made the Top 20 Declining Industries list. Leading the pack is Printing and Related Support Activities, with a loss of 413, placing fourth in the state in numeric decline. Apparel Knitting Mills is slated to be the fastest declining industry in Manufacturing, and third statewide, with a potential loss of 29.63 percent of its workforce.

Durable Goods Manufacturing is expecting a net gain of 991 jobs over the next 10 years. The largest increase in jobs should be seen in the Transportation Equipment Manufacturing subsector, with 1,222 jobs anticipated overall. Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing could see a 28.43 percent rise in jobs, placing the industry among the ten fastest growing industries in the state. The Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing subsector is also projected to add more than 1,000 jobs during the projection period. However, not all Durable Goods Manufacturing industries are slated to see so bright a future. The
Machinery Manufacturing subsector is estimated to lose 486 jobs, placing second in the state in numeric decline. In all, seven Durable Goods Manufacturing industries made the Top 20 Declining Industries list. Foundries is projected to be among the ten fastest declining industries in the state, with a loss of 16.35 percent of its workforce, or 260 jobs.

The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities supersector is projected to gain 10,752 jobs over the 10-year period. Wholesale Trade could see an increase of 2,119 jobs, with Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods, anticipating adding 1,659 jobs. Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers is estimated to add 256 new jobs, while Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods is expected to increase employment by 204. Retail Trade could increase by just 3,880 jobs over the projection period. The long-term outlook for General Merchandise Stores looks promising, with a net gain of 1,469 jobs, but will likely see a few bumps along the way. The Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers subsector is also set to experience strong growth, adding 1,266 new jobs. On the negative side of the labor market, Food and Beverage Stores is expected to lose 305 jobs between 2018 and 2028, possibly due to increased use of self-check-out and grocery pickup and delivery. Book, Periodical, and Music
Stores is slated to be the fastest declining among Retail Trade industries, and sixth statewide, with a loss of 21.97 percent of its workforce, due to online purchasing of these products as well as online streaming services.

The Transportation and Warehousing sector is projected to add 4,398 jobs. Truck Transportation is the biggest driver of this growth, adding 1,895 new jobs, making the Top 20 Growing Industries list. Warehousing and Storage is slated to increase by an additional 1,080 jobs. Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation is estimated to be the third fastest growing industry in the state, increasing by 40.09 percent between 2018 and 2028, while Support Activities for Rail Transportation could also be among the ten fastest growing industries in the state, with a 28.48 percent rise in jobs. Scenic and Sightseeing
Transportation is projected to lose 16.67 percent of its workforce during the 2018-2028 period. Utilities is expected to experience a net gain of 355 jobs by 2028. Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution is slated to add 300 jobs, while Natural Gas Distribution could cut 70 from its workforce.

Information is projected to be the only supersector to experience a net loss of jobs, with 665 being eliminated during the projection period, a 5.93 percent decline. The Telecommunications subsector could see a significant net loss of 754 jobs over the projection period, becoming the top declining industry in the state, and among the ten fastest declining, at a rate of 21.65 percent. Cable and Other Subscription Programming is slated to be the fastest declining industry in the state, losing 41.18
percent of its workforce.

One positive in the Information supersector is Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services, which is forecasted to gain 293 jobs, or 20.71 percent during the 2018-2028 projection period. The Financial Activities supersector is projected to add 5,958 new jobs, with the Finance and Insurance sector accounting for 4,940 of those new jobs. The Insurance Carriers and Related Activities subsector is estimated to add 4,103 jobs to its workforce. Driving this growth is Insurance Carriers, with a growth of 3,632, placing the industry among the ten highest growing industries in the state, also placing in the Top 20 Fastest Growing Industries list with a 21.61 percent growth. The Credit Intermediation and Related Activities subsector is estimated to add 622 new jobs to its workforce. The Real Estate and Rental and Leasing sector is predicted to increase by 1,018 jobs, or 7.48 percent growth. The majority of the gain is likely to occur in the Real Estate subsector, adding 986, or 10.39 percent to its workforce. Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works) is forecasted to lose 12.20 percent of its workforce, placing in the Top 20 Fastest Declining Industries list.

The Professional and Business Services supersector is expected to add 18,915 jobs by 2028. The Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector should anticipate 5,114 jobs over the projection period. Driving job growth is Computer Systems Design and Related Services, which is estimated to gain 1,899 of those jobs, placing in the Top 20 Growing Industries list. Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services is forecast to be in the Top 20 Fastest Growing Industries list, raising employment by 21.90 percent. The Management of Companies and Enterprises sector could add 5,613 new jobs
between 2018 and 2028, an increase of 16.14 percent. The Administrative and Support and Waste Management and
Remediation Services sector could see a growth of 8,188 new jobs. Within the sector, Employment Services should see the most growth with an estimated 3,349 new jobs, placing among the ten highest growing in the state. One downside is Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services, slated to lose 89 jobs, or 24.18 percent of its workforce, fourth in the state.

Education and Health Services is projected to be the top growing supersector in the state, with 36,472 new jobs being added by 2028, a 12.19 percent rise in employment. Educational Services could see a growth of 5,166 jobs. Elementary and Secondary Schools should see most of this growth with 3,241 jobs anticipated to be added. Health Care and Social Assistance is forecasted to be the top and fastest growing sector, with 31,306 jobs expected. Of those jobs, 13,315 could be found in the Ambulatory Health Care Services. Individual and Family Services is projected to be the top growing industry in Education
and Health Services, adding 7,108 new jobs, the second highest in the state and among the ten fastest. Home Health Care Services is slated to add 35.16 percent to its workforce, placing fourth in the state in percent growth. In all, seven industries in Education and Health Servicesmade the Top 20 Growing Industries list and six industries made the Top 20 Fastest Growing Industries list.

At 13.44 percent, the Leisure and Hospitality supersector would be the fastest growing in the state, equivalent to 15,915 new jobs during the projection period. Most of the growth is likely to come in the Accommodation and Food Services sector, which is projected to add 14,715 new jobs, a 13.75 percent increase. Driving this growth is Restaurants and Other Eating Places, which is forecast to add 13,387 new jobs between 2018 and 2028, becoming the top growing industry in the state. The Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation sector is estimated to add 1,200 jobs.

The Other Services (Except Government) supersector could add 7,079 new jobs by 2028, an increase of 11.77 percent.  Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations could lead the supersector with 6,023 jobs. Grantmaking and Giving Services could increase employment by 53.66 percent, second fastest in the state. Religious Organizations is anticipated to add the most jobs, with 3,028 new jobs between 2018 and 2028. Drycleaning and Laundry Services is slated to lose 112 jobs, while Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance is forecasted to lose 14.22 percent of its workforce.  The Government supersector is projected to grow by 6,555 jobs during the 10-year period. State, Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals should see 2,507 new jobs, while Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals could see a growth of 4,322 new jobs, placing both on the Top 20 Growing Industries list. However,
Postal Service should see a decrease of 314 jobs by 2028 as small short-term gains likely will not be enough to offset long-term losses. Federal Government, Excluding Post Office is expected to gain 40 jobs.

Local Workforce Development Areas

Arkansas is divided into ten local Workforce Development Areas. We analyzed these ten areas along with their projected percent and numeric change in total employment for all sectors between 2016-2026. The Northwest WDA is expected to grow at the fastest rate (14.2%) and also add the most number of jobs (37,546). The North Central WDA is next with a growth rate of 13.8%adding 9,158 jobs. The other WDAs that are expected to experience more than 10% growth were Central WDA, West Central WDA, and Northwest WDA.  As expected, those WDAs located in the Mississippi Delta Region, the Eastern WDA and Southeast WDA experience the least percentage growth.

The majority of the jobs across all industry sectors are located in three local Workforce Development Areas – Northwest, Little Rock and Central. The three areas together account for about 51.2 % of all WDA jobs with the Northwest taking the largest share. Apart from jobs in Health Care and Social Assistance, the majority of the jobs in the large industry sectors are located in the Northwest. The Little Rock Area accounts for the largest number of jobs in Health Care and Social Assistance. Among the medium-sized industry sectors, most of the jobs in Transportation and Warehousing and Management of Companies and Enterprises are located in the Northwest.

1. Central Arkansas LWDA

The Central Arkansas LWDA saw a decrease in the labor force of 3,372 to 251,378 from 2019 to 2020, but the labor
force increased by 3,389 over the 2016 to 2020 period. Employment decreased by 10,460 between 2019 and 2020 and decreased by 3,130 over the five-year period. The LWDA has seen an increase in unemployment over the same time periods.

From 2019 to 2020, unemployment increased by 7,088, and from 2016 to 2020, unemployment increased by 6,519. The LWDA’s unemployment rate rose by 2.6 percent over the five-year period. In 2021, the unemployment rate decreased by six-tenths of a percent from January to 4.4 percent in July 2021.

Registered Nurses is projected to be the top growing occupation in the Central Arkansas LWDA between 2020 and 2022, adding 124 jobs, increasing its workforce to 3,233 jobs. Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers is anticipated to be the fastest growing occupation, raising employment levels 6.52 percent to 147. Fast Food and Counter Workers could be the top declining occupation during the 2020-2022 projection period, with a loss of 859 jobs, a 10.01 percent drop.

However, Audio and Video Equipment Technicians, is slated to lose 40.40 percent of its workforce during the same time frame, becoming the fastest declining occupation. Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations is slated to gain 212
jobs from first quarter 2020 and first quarter 2022, becoming the top growing major group.

2. City of Little Rock LWDA

This LWDA holds the distinction of being the only LWDA comprised of a single metropolitan and geographical area. The City of Little Rock Local Workforce Development Area’s (LWDA) population decreased by 569 between 2018 and 2019, bringing the population to 197,312. The City of Little Rock’s population grew by 369 between 2015 and 2019. The area is the county seat of Pulaski County and includes part of the Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway Metropolitan Statistical Area.

Registered Nurses was estimated to have the most employees in Little Rock with 8,070 employed in 2020 with an average wage of $69,901. Retail Salespersons is the second largest occupation with 7,280 employed, earning an average wage of $29,149. General and Operations Managers, with an estimated employment of 4,650, had the highest average wage of the 10 largest occupations, earning $107,178 annually.

Dentists, General topped the Occupations Paying the Most list with an annual salary of $208,418. Biological Science Teachers, Postsecondary, with an average annual salary of $200,227, ranked second on the Occupations Paying the Most list. The entry wage estimate for employers of all sizes was $24,173 for 2020. The median wage estimate for employers with 250-499 employees was $36,916, while wages for experienced workers averaged $63,286 for employers in all size categories.

3. Eastern Arkansas LWDA

The labor force in the Eastern Arkansas LWDA decreased by 509 to 45,734 in 2020 from 2019, and has decreased by 2,331 from 2016 to 2020. Employment decreased from 2019 to 2020, losing 1,967 workers to 42,116. Unemployment saw an increase from 2019 to 2020, having 1,458 more unemployed, enough to change the unemployment rate from 4.7 percent to 7.9 percent. Since the beginning of 2021, the unemployment rate fluctuated from 6.9 percent in January to 6.2 percent in April, ending July 2021 at 6.5 percent.

Fast Food and Counter Workers was estimated to have the most employees in Eastern Arkansas with 1,470 employed
in 2020 with an average wage of $21,807. Cashiers was the second largest occupation with 1,280 employed, earning an average wage of $24,757. Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education, with an estimated employment of 640, had the highest average wage of the 10 largest occupations, earning $49,594 annually.

4. North Central Arkansas LWDA

The North Central Arkansas LWDA labor force decreased by 152 from 2019 to 2020 and decreased by 937 between 2016 and 2020. Employment fell by 1,894 while unemployment increased by 1,760 from 2019 to 2020. The unemployment rate increased to 6.5 percent or 1.8 percent from 2019 to 2020. The unemployment rate fluctuated in 2021, but ended at 5.0 percent in July.

Fast Food and Counter Workers was estimated to have the most employees in North Central Arkansas with 2,570 employed
in 2020 with an average wage of $21,806. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers was the second largest occupation with 2,200 employed, earning an average wage of $35,150. General and Operations Managers, with an estimated employment
of 1,130, had the highest average wage of the 10 largest occupations, earning $71,575 annually.

5. Northeast Arkansas LWDA

The Northeast Arkansas LWDA labor force decreased to 112,157 in 2020, or by 11,006 since 2019, and decreased over the 2016-2020 period by 7,505. Employment decreased by 4,087 while unemployment increased by 3,081 from 2019 to 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1 percent, an increase of 2.6 percent from 2019 to 2020. The area’s unemployment rate settled to 4.8% by July 2021.

Retail Salespersons was estimated to have the most employees in Northeast Arkansas with 3,610 employed in 2020 with an
average wage of $27,873. Fast Food and Counter Workers was the second largest occupation with 3,340 employed, earning an average wage of $21,899. General and Operations Managers, with an estimated employment of 1,620, had the highest average wage of the 10 largest occupations, earning $87,320 annually.

Physicians, All Other and Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric topped the Occupations Paying the Most list with an annual salary of $289,269. Obstetricians and Gynecologists, with an average annual salary of $259,610, ranked second on the Occupations Paying the Most list.

6. Northwest Arkansas LWDA

The Northwest Arkansas LWDA labor force increased but employment decreased from 2019 to 2020, with the labor force gaining 3,311 to 330,952 and employment decreasing by 3,362 to 315,358. Unemployment increased by 6,673 to 15,594 in 2020, and has seen an increase of 6,135 since 2016. The unemployment rate rose from 2019 to 2020 by two percent to 4.7 percent. The area’s unemployment rate increased by a total of 1.7 percent from 2016. The unemployment rate ended July 2021 at 3.3 percent.

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers was estimated to have the most employees in Northwest Arkansas with 12,870
employed in 2020 with an average wage of $49,135. Retail Salespersons was the second largest occupation with 9,770 employed, earning an average wage of $28,893. General and Operations Managers, with an estimated employment of 5,410, had the highest average wage of the 10 largest occupations, earning $93,665 annually.

Physicians, All Other and Ophthalmologists, Except Pediatric topped the Occupations Paying the Most list with an annual salary of $246,185. Nurse Anesthetists, with an average annual salary of $234,037, ranked second on the Occupations Paying the Most list.

Educational Services is slated to add 1,611 jobs between 2020 and 2022, becoming the top growing industry in the Northwest Arkansas LWDA, moving employment to 30,219. Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries is predicted to be the fastest growing industry, increasing by 22.53 percent. On the negative side of the economy, Food Services and Drinking Places is forecast to cut 2,594 jobs during the 2020-2022 projection period, a 10.53 percent reduction, because of the pandemic effects on the industry.

Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries could see a worse outcome, potentially losing 60.43 percent of its workforce, dropping to 129 jobs by 2022. Professional and Business Services leads all supersectors in Northwest Arkansas in numeric change, with 2,506 new jobs, a 4.98 percent gain, moving employment from 50,356 in 2020 to 52,862 in 2022.

7. Southeast Arkansas LWDA

Southeast Arkansas saw a decrease in the labor force of 1,573 to 79,951 from 2019 to 2020, and employment decreased by 3,319 to 74,352 for the same time period. Both the labor force and employment have decreased since 2016 by 2,209 and 3,570 respectively. Unemployment increased by 1,746 to 5,599 from 2019 to 2020 and the unemployment rate increased to 7.0 percent in 2020. After starting at 6.6 percent in January 2021, the unemployment rate fell by four-tenths of a percent to 6.2
percent in July 2021.

Fast Food and Counter Workers was estimated to have the most employees in Southeast Arkansas with 2,900 employed in 2019 with an average wage of $22,085. Home Health and Personal Care Aides was the second largest occupation with 1,770
employed, earning an average wage of $22,401. Registered Nurses, with an estimated employment of 1,340, had the
highest average wage of the 10 largest occupations, earning $59,787 annually.

Audiologists topped the Occupations Paying the Most list with an annual salary of $286,493. Anesthesiologists, with an average annual salary of $278,709, ranked second on the Occupations Paying the Most list.

8. Southwest Arkansas LWDA

The Southwest Arkansas LWDA labor force decreased from 2019 to 2020 by 1,547 to 91,140, while employment decreased by 3,378 to 85,184. Over the five-year period from 2016 to 2020, the area has seen a decrease of 2,643 in the labor force and decrease of 4,210 in employment. Unemployment increased by 1,831 from 2019 to 2020, and increased by 1,570 over the five-year period. The unemployment rate rose by two percent from 2019 to 2020 to 6.5 percent. After various fluctuations in the
unemployment rate during 2021, the rate settled at 5.4 percent in July 2021.

Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing is estimated to be the top growing industry in Southwest Arkansas, adding 319 jobs, for an employment level of 2,769. Mining (Except Oil and Gas) could raise employment levels by 40.20 percent, moving from 301 jobs in 2020 to 422 in 2022.

On the negative side of the labor market, Educational Services is slated to lose 246 jobs, dropping employment to 7,996. Private Households is forecast to cut 154 jobs, or 27.55 percent of its workforce, dropping from 154 jobs in 2020 to 405 in 2022, becoming the fastest declining industry in the area. Government is estimated to be the only supersector to experience job gain, with a projected gain of 106 new jobs between 2020 and 2022, a 1.77 percent rise in employment to a level of 6,107.

9. West Central LWDA

In 2020, the labor force and employment decreased in the West Central Arkansas LWDA. The labor force decreased by 1,914 to a total of 130,485, while employment increased 5,138 to a total of 121,956. The labor force decreased by 1,343 from 2016 to 2020 and employment decreased by 3,936. Unemployment increased from 2019 to 2020 by 3,224 to 8,529. This caused the unemployment rate to rise from 4.0 percent to 6.5 percent. The unemployment rate fluctuated through 2021, but dropped back to 5.2 percent by July 2021.

Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations is predicted to be the top growing major group adding 330 new jobs and increasing employment levels to 9,336. Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries is slated to be the fastest growing industry in West Central Arkansas, raising employment by 25.70 percent as an increase in casino operations could drive the area’s economy.

As many other areas have shown, Food Services and Drinking places have taken a hit during the pandemic and is predicted to experience a net loss of 1,176 jobs, dropping to 8,879 employment. Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries is slated to lose 34.12 percent of the workforce, becoming the fastest declining industry. Other Services (Except Government) is
forecast to be the top growing supersector, adding 281 jobs between 2020 and 2022, a 2.58 percent rise in employment.

10. Western Arkansas LWDA

The Western Arkansas LWDA labor force decreased by 1,037 to 111,094 and employment decreased by 3,681 to 104,581 from 2019 to 2020. Over the 2016-2020 period, the labor force decreased by 2,510 while employment decreased by 4,559. Unemployment and the unemployment rate both increased significantly from 2016 to 2020. Unemployment increased by 2,049 to 6,513 unemployed, while the unemployment rate rose by 2.4 percent to 5.9 percent. The area’s unemployment rate fluctuated through 2021, ending at 4.2 percent in July.

Administrative and Support Services leads the Western Arkansas WDA region in numeric growth, adding an anticipated 480 new jobs, and moving employment levels to 6,259. Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing is slated to ramp up employment soon, increasing by 25.72 percent. On the negative side of the labor market, Food Services and Drinking Places is predicted to lose 514 jobs, dropping employment to 7.258, becoming the top declining industry.

Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries is estimated to cut 59.57 percent from its workforce during the projection period, dropping employment below 50. Professional and Business Services is slated to be the top growing supersector, adding 534 jobs between 2020 and 2022, a 5.41 percent rise in employment.

Labor Force and Unemployment Rate

The labor force decreased by 8,346 between 2019 and 2020 and employment decreased by 41,946 over the same period. Unemployment increased by 33,600 from 2019 to 2020, and has seen an increase of 28,940 since 2016. The state’s unemployment rate rose by 2.6 percent from 2019 to 2020. Over the 2016-2020 period, the unemployment rate rose 2.2 percentage points to 6.1 percent for 2020. The state’s unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in July 2021.

The State's monthly unemployment rate remained lower than the U.S. unemployment rate during the first six months of calendar 2021.   In January 2021, the Arkansas unemployment rate was 4.6%, compared to the U.S. unemployment rate of 6.3%. This trend continued in July 2021, as the Arkansas rate was 4.3% compared to the national rate of 5.4%.

Median Household/Per Capita Personal Income

Arkansas’ median household income was $47,597 in 2019 which increased by $1,871 from 2018 to 2019 but is below the national median household income of $62,843 for 2020. Arkansas’ per capita personal income in 2020 was $47,109, an increase of $2,527 from 2019. Over the 2016-2020 period, the per capita personal income increased by $7,363. The state’s per capita personal income is below the United States per capita personal income of $59,729.

Employment

In 2020, whites made up 77.8 percent of the labor force while the total of all minority groups made up 22.2 percent of the labor force. The unemployment rate for all races, including Hispanics, was 6.1 percent. The unemployment rate for all minority groups combined was 9.3 percent. Hispanics of all races made up 7.3 percent of the labor force, with an unemployment rate of 5.4 percent.

Education

Five of the eight education categories are projected to see positive net growth between 2020 and 2022. Occupations requiring no formal education are projected to lose 10,346 jobs during the projection period. Jobs requiring a high school diploma or equivalent are expected to lose 5,297 jobs during the projection period and had the highest educational attainment in 2019 at 34.9 percent. Occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree are expected to grow by 3,488 jobs and 15.1 percent of the population 25 years and over had a bachelor’s degree in 2019. Growth in occupations requiring a master’s degree or doctoral or professional degree is expected to be 495 and 261 jobs respectively. Educational attainment of the state’s population aged 25 years and over shows that 87.5 percent have earned at least a high school diploma or equivalent, up 1.3 percent from 2018.

Wages

Fast Food and Counter Workers was estimated to have the most employees across the state with 36,650 employed in 2020 with an average wage of $22,210. Retail Salespersons was the second largest occupation with 36,030 employed, earning an average wage of $28,090. General and Operations Managers, with an estimated employment of 20,400, had the highest average wage of the 10 largest occupations, earning $91,530 annually.

Obstetricians and Gynecologists topped the Occupations Paying the Most list with an annual salary of $258,940.
Anesthesiologists, with an average annual salary of $234,970, ranked second on the Occupations Paying the Most list.
The entry wage estimate for employers of all sizes was $23,087 for 2020. The median wage estimate for employers
with 250-499 employees was $35,939, while wages for experienced workers averaged $55,624 for employers in all
size categories. Of the 1,177,860 estimated employees, 218,812 made less than $11 an hour while 277,468 made more than $26 an hour. Employees making between $16 and $20.99 totaled 200,881.

Skills Gap Analysis

As illustrated in the University of Arkansas' Workforce System Evaluation Report, the strategies for identifying skills gaps differ across Local Workforce Areas. Some Local Areas rely upon employers to articulate their needs, while others utilize data from the state's Labor Market Information (LMI) Unit at: www.discover.arkansas.gov, combined with conducting in-person meetings with local industry and business leaders as well as consulting with local and regional Chambers of Commerce.

Services to address these skills gaps, once identified, include career services, occupational skills training, and supportive services to assist participants who have an interest in a demand occupation obtain the skill set needed to become employed in a demand occupation and maintain employment.

Additionally, claimants complete the ACT Work Keys curriculum and attempt to earn the Career Readiness Certificate (CRC) in order to meet their employment goals and to help determine what areas need improvement. The Workforce Center staff, in collaboration with the employer, determines which level rating on the (CRC) is needed for the job posting. Applicants
who meet this level on the CRC can apply for this job and the employer has crucial information at the beginning of the interview process. If an applicant is not currently meeting a required level on the CRC, they are referred to the local Adult Education facility to improve their skill sets and retest for the CRC.

Finally, services such as On the Job Training (OJT) and Work Experience are offered to participants assist in their career search. These services are planned, structured learning experiences that takes place in a workplace for a limited period of time. They also leads to employers hiring customers who do not initially have the required skill set but gain the necessary skills and experience during the process.  These services are used as targeted recruiting to help employers build a pipeline of trained workers.

Populations with Barriers to Employment

State WIOA Policy PY17-06, WIOA Populations with Barriers to Employment, provides guidance to Local Workforce Areas in serving these populations. The guidance includes the populations, as defined in WIOA section 3(24), and provides detailed charts that articulates many of the issues that these populations may face that are obstacles to attaining employment that leads to self-sufficency. Addtionally, there is information included regarding solutions to these barriers, population identification, and outreach solutions.

This policy may be found at:

https://www.dws.arkansas.gov/src/files/PY17-06-WIOA-Barriers-to-Employment-Issuance-.pdf

On a monthly basis, a query of the WIOA database is ran to identify the number of program participants with these barriers, by local workforce development area. This information is distributed to each of the ten local workforce development areas for analysis and the development of additional outreach strategies designed to increase their participation in the workforce development system.