Narrative: II. a. 1. A.

Gross Domestic Product

The broadest measure of economic activity is Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. This measure tracks the market value of goods and services produced within a nation or state within a set time period.  In 2018, Missouri’s GDP was $28.2 billion (in 2012 chained dollars), an increase of 2.3 percent from 2017. In comparison, the national GDP increased 2.9 percent during the same period.

Missouri’s GDP growth from 2017 to 2018 outperformed each of the contiguous states, with the exception of Tennessee, which had the highest GDP percentage growth at 3.0 percent.

Most industry sectors in Missouri show a trend of overall GDP growth 2008 to 2018. The greatest gains in the past 10 years have been in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry with 26.7 percent overall growth (2.2 percent annually). Other ten-year growth trends include annual growth in industries such as Utilities at about 1.7 percent annually, Health Care and Social Assistance at 1.5 percent annually and Wholesale Trade at 1.1 percent annual growth. During the past year, higher growth was seen in the industry sectors of Information (11.6 percent), Manufacturing (7.1 percent) and Wholesale Trade (6.7 percent).

Industry Diversification

A diversified economy has many industries and can better manage fluctuations in the business cycle. A balanced economy is capable of absorbing an economic shock through other industries present in the area compensating for the loss by helping to maintain economic stability for the state. 

Less diversified economies specialize in only a few industries. If a state economy has a disproportionate number of workers in one specific industry, the effects of hard times would negatively impact the state.

In 2017, Missouri’s economy ranked as the seventh most diversified among the 50 states on the diversification index at 2.9 percent, the same as the previous year. Texas was the most diversified at 2.5 percent (the lower the score, the state’s economy is more diversified; the higher the score, the state’s economy is more specialized). Only one neighboring state, Nebraska, is more diversified with a score of 2.7 percent, and the most specialized neighboring state is Iowa with a score of 4.7 percent.

Missouri Economic Research Information Center’s (MERIC) Economic Indicator Brief: Economic Diversity 2017 uses a modified Herfindahl Index to calculate the diversification scores and considers the number of industries in the state, the gross domestic product of each industry in the state, and the state’s total gross domestic product. The full methodology is included in the report.

Regional Economies

A portion of Missouri’s Annual Economic Report is dedicated to exploring the regional economies of the state. The economies of each region are very different, and the analysis provides data and information on the industries and workforce important to the area.

St. Louis and Kansas City have more than one workforce development area within their metropolitan statistical areas (MSA). The data for these areas is combined for analysis and reporting purposes.

Central Region

The Central Region is comprised of 19 counties in the center of the state. The region’s workforce numbers over 280,000 or 10.6 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The regional unemployment rate was 3.0 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.3 percent.

Industries in the Central Region with the highest levels of employment and increased employment from 2013 to 2018 are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Accommodation and Food Services, and Manufacturing. 

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the Central Region are Health Care and Social Assistance, Accommodation and Food Service, Educational Services, Administrative and Support, and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation with 1.0 as the national average. Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry. Industries with high LQs in the Central Region include those related to tourism such as Gasoline Stations, Accommodation, Food and Drinking Places, and a variety of stores. The industries of Credit Intermediation and Related Activities, Motor Vehicle Parts Dealers, Nursing and Residential Care, and Machinery Manufacturing also have notable LQs above the average.

Kansas City Region

The Kansas City Region is comprised of five counties in the west central portion of the state. The region’s workforce numbers over 600,000, or 20.3 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The regional unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.5 percent.

Industries in the Kansas City Region with the highest levels of employment and increased employment from 2013 to 2018 are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Accommodation and Food Services, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, and Manufacturing.

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the Kansas City Region are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, Accommodation and Food Services, Construction, Retail Trade, and Finance and Insurance. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation, with 1.0 as the national average. Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry. Industries with high LQs in the Kansas City Region include those related to manufacturing such as Transportation Equipment Manufacturing, Paper Manufacturing, and, Accommodation, Food and Drinking Places, and a variety of stores. The industries of Data Processing and Hosting, Support activities for Transportation, Professional and Technical Services, and Insurance Carriers and Related also have notable LQs above the average.

Northeast Region

The Northeast Region is comprised of 16 counties in the northeastern portion of the state. The region’s workforce numbers over 124,000 or 4.2 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The regional unemployment rate was 3.2 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.5 percent.

Industries in the Northeast Region with the highest levels of employment and increased employment from 2013 to 2018 are Manufacturing, Accommodation and Food Services, Construction, and Transportation and Warehousing.

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the Northeast Region are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Educational Services, Transportation and Warehousing, Administrative and Support, and Construction. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation, with 1.0 as the national average. Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry. Industries with high LQs in the Northeast Region include those related to transportation such as Gasoline Stations, Truck Transportation, and Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Repair and Maintenance and agriculture with Crop Production and Animal Production. The industries of Nonmetallic Product Manufacturing, Nursing and Residential Care, Building Materials and Garden Supplies, and Heavy and Civil Engineering also have notable LQs above the average.

Northwest Region

The Northwest Region is comprised of 18 counties in the northwestern portion of the state. The region’s workforce numbers over 123,500 or 4.2 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The regional unemployment rate was 3.0 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.4 percent.

Industries in the Northwest Region with the highest levels of employment and increased employment from 2013 to 2018 are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Construction, and Wholesale Trade.

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the Northwest Region are Manufacturing, Health Care and Social Assistance, Administrative and Support, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, and Transportation and Warehousing. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation, with 1.0 as the national average. Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry. Industries with high LQs in the Northwest Region include those related to manufacturing like Food Manufacturing, Fabricated Metal Manufacturing, and Chemical Manufacturing. The industries of Gasoline Stations, Building Materials and Garden Supplies, Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation, and Merchandise Wholesales, Nondurable Goods also have notable LQs above the average.

Ozark Region

The Ozark Region is comprised of seven counties in the southwest quadrant of the state. The region’s workforce numbers over 262,600 or 8.9 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The regional unemployment rate was 3.1 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.0 percent.

In the Ozark Region, each of the top 10 industries based on 2018 employment have grown since 2013. Industries in the Ozark Region with the highest levels of employment and increased employment from 2013 to 2018 are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Accommodation and Food Services, Educational Services, and Manufacturing. The fastest growing industry is Professional, Scientific and Technical Services. 

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the Ozark Region are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Educational Services, Administrative and Support, and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation, with 1.0 as the national average. Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry. Industries with high LQs in the Ozark Region include those related to tourism such as Performing Arts and Spectator Sports, Accommodation, Gasoline Stations, Amusement, Gambling and Recreation and a variety of stores. The industries of Truck Transportation, Telecommunications and Hospitals also have notable LQs above the average.

South Central Region

The South Central Region is comprised of 12 counties in the center of the southern portion of Missouri. The region’s workforce numbers over 78,900 or 2.7 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The regional unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.5 percent.

Industries in South Central Region with the highest levels of employment from 2013 to 2018 are Health Care and Social Assistance, Manufacturing, Retail Trade, Educational Services, and Accommodation and Food Services. Even though these industries are the top employers for the region, some have experienced slight decreases in employment during the five-year period.

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the South Central Region are Health Care and Social Assistance, Administrative and Support, Accommodation and Food Service, Transportation and Warehousing, and Finance and Insurance. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation, with 1.0 as the national average. Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry. Industries with high LQs in the South Central Region include those related to wood products such as Wood Product Manufacturing and Forestry and Logging, and manufacturing like Machinery Manufacturing and Fabricated Metal Manufacturing. Gasoline Stations, Social Assistance, General Merchandise Stores, and Nursing and Residential Care also have notable LQs above the average.

Southeast Region

The Southeast Region is comprised of 13 counties in the southeastern portion of the state. The region’s workforce numbers over 159,800 or 5.4 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The regional unemployment rate was 3.6 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.5 percent.

Industries in the Southeast Region with the highest levels of employment and increased employment from 2013 to 2018 are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Educational Services, Accommodation and Food Services, and Construction. 

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the Southeast Region are Health Care and Social Assistance, Administrative and Support, Accommodation and Food Service, Retail Trade, and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation, with 1.0 as the national average.  Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry. Industries with high LQs in the Southeast Region include those related to agriculture such as Crop Production and Agricultural Support Activities and in manufacturing like Wood Product Manufacturing, Nonmetallic Product Manufacturing, and Electronic and Appliance Manufacturing. The industries of Mining, Truck Transportation, Social Assistance, Nursing and Residential Care, and General Merchandise Stores also have notable LQs above the average.

Southwest Region

The Southwest Region is comprised of seven counties in the southwestern corner of the state. The region’s workforce numbers over 132,800 or 4.5 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The regional unemployment rate was 2.9 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.5 percent.

Industries in the Southwest Region with the highest levels of employment and increased employment from 2013 to 2018 are Manufacturing, Retail Trade, Educational Services, Accommodation and Food Services, Construction, and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. 

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the Southwest Region are Health Care and Social Assistance, Administrative and Support, Educational Services, Manufacturing, and Construction. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation, with 1.0 as the national average. Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry.

Industries with high LQs in the Southwest Region include those related to manufacturing such as Food Manufacturing, Electronic and Appliance Manufacturing, Fabricated Metal Manufacturing, Wood Product Manufacturing, and Furniture Manufacturing. The transportation and warehousing industry also has high LQs in the Truck Transportation and Warehousing and Storage sectors. The industries of Animal Production, Gasoline Stations and General Merchandise Stores also have notable LQs above the average.

St. Louis Region

The St. Louis Region is comprised of five counties in the Eastern part of the state. The region’s workforce numbers over 1,036,000 or 35.1 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The regional unemployment rate was 3.0 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.3 percent.

Industries in the St. Louis Region with the highest levels of employment and increased employment from 2013 to 2018 are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Accommodation and Food Services, Manufacturing, Administrative and Support, and Professional, scientific, and Technical Services. 

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the St. Louis Region are Health Care and Social Assistance, Accommodation and Food Service, Administrative and Support, Educational Services, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, and Finance and Insurance. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation, with 1.0 as the national average. Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry. Industries with high LQs in the St. Louis Region include those related to information such as Data Processing and Hosting, Broadcasting (except internet), and Telecommunications. The industries of Management of Companies, Chemical Manufacturing, Beverage and Tobacco Manufacturing, Hospitals, Securities, Commodities, and Investments, Printing Support and Machinery Manufacturing also have notable LQs above the average.

West Central Region

The West Central Region is comprised of 13 counties in the west central part of Missouri. The region’s workforce has 122,800 employees or 4.2 percent of Missouri’s total employment. The region’s unemployment rate was 3.6 percent in 2018, and the preliminary rate for June 2019 is 3.5 percent.

Industries in the West Central Region with the highest levels of employment and increased employment from 2013 to 2018 are Health Care and Social Assistance, Manufacturing, Accommodation and Food Services, and Public Administration. 

Industries projected to experience the highest percentages of growth through 2026 in the West Central Region are Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Education Services, Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals, and Manufacturing. Occupational projections for the highest number of total openings, as well as the highest percentage of growth, are occupations that would typically support these industries.

Location Quotient (LQ) is an analysis of industry concentrations within a geographic region compared to the nation, with 1.0 as the national average. Industries with an LQ greater than 1.0 indicate a higher concentration, thus requiring more than the average number of skilled workers to support the industry.  Industries with high LQs in the West Central Region include those related to manufacturing, like Food Manufacturing, Fabricated Metal Manufacturing, and Machinery Manufacturing and those related to agriculture, such as Animal Production and Agricultural Support Activities.  The industries of Nursing and Residential Care, Building Materials and Garden Supplies, and Motor Vehicle Parts Dealers also have notable LQs above the average.

Current Industry Demand

Several of Missouri’s industries have grown steadily. Over the past 10 years, seven industry groups have increased employment at a pace higher than Missouri’s average growth rate of 6.4 percent. Those industries are Health Care and Social Assistance (73,200 at 19.5 percent), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (38,584 at 32.0 percent), Administrative and Support (24,229 at 18.1 percent), Accommodation and Food Services (12,684 at 9.9 percent), Finance and Insurance (10,618 at 9.1 percent), Transportation and Warehousing (7,925 at 8.8 percent), and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (2,416 at 26.1 percent).  During the same 10 years, additional industries lost employment during the first half of the period between 2009 and 2014 but continue to gain employment over the last five years. These industries are Manufacturing, Educational Services and Construction.

The industries identified as currently in-demand also align with the findings of Missouri’s 2018 initiatives, Best in Midwest and Talent for Tomorrow. Statewide and regional data for the initiatives include an analysis of labor market information and industry data, while incorporating stakeholder feedback gathered through meetings held across the state. The work of some industries identified through this process, Information Technology and Agriculture, cross between many different industry sectors.

Current Occupational Demand

Current occupational demand can be attained through the job ads placed by employers. From July 2018–June 2019, over 500,000 online job ads were placed for jobs located in Missouri according to Labor Insight/Burning Glass. 

Job ads were placed for positions at every skill and education level. Missouri uses a system of Now, Next and Later to categorize jobs according to the typical education and experience required for success on the job. Now jobs typically require a high school education or less and short-term training. Next jobs typically require moderate- to long-term training or experience or education beyond high school. Later jobs typically require a bachelor’s degree or higher education.

Now occupations with the highest number of job postings include Retail Salespersons, Customer Service Representatives, Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Food Preparation and Serving Workers, and Janitors and Cleaners. Occupations with the most job postings in the Next category are Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, Sales Representatives, Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers, Maintenance and Repair Workers, and Secretaries and Administrative Assistants.  Later occupations with the highest number of job postings are Registered Nurses, Computer Occupations, Software Developers, Managers, and Medical and Health Services Managers. 

Many of the occupations with the most job postings also appear on the list of jobs with the highest number of projected openings through 2026. The jobs with high numbers of job postings and high numbers of projected annual openings are identified with the arrow.

 Missouri Workforce 2019 Survey

In April through June of 2019, over 1,600 Missouri companies were surveyed to gauge the state of Missouri’s workforce from the employers’ point of view. Companies were randomly selected from a categorized list of Missouri businesses queried from the Reference USA employer database.   Employers surveyed represented the mix of industries found in Missouri and were equally located in metro and non-metro areas of the state. The questions help with understanding hiring trends, skill needs and shortages, experience, and education requirements of Missouri employers. 

A portion of the survey questions asked employers about changes in employment levels, both within the past 12 months. The responses from employers were very similar, and in fact, within 2 percentage points of the state average.  Almost half of employers reported that employment levels remained the same as the year before. Employment increased slightly for 22 percent of businesses and significantly for an additional 8 percent. Twenty-one percent of employers report decreases in employment.

Employers were also asked about planned employment growth during the next year. Nearly half of employers plan to maintain current employment over the next 12 months. Almost one-third of employers plan to slightly increase employment while 4 percent plan significant employment increases. Over the next year, 15 percent of employers plan slight decreases and 3 percent significant decreases in their workforce.

Industry Projections

The long-term industry projections help determine the industries that are expected to add positions within their organizations over time. The latest round of projections are through the ten-year period ending in 2026. 

The projections reveal several industries with both high employment numbers and above average growth rates compared to the state average. The top five industries by numeric employment change are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, Food Services and Drinking Places, Social Assistance, Ambulatory Health Care Services, and Educational Services. 

 Occupational Projections

Job openings occur due to three reasons – exits, transfers and growth. Exits occur as people leave the workforce for reasons such as retirement. Transfers occur when workers leave one occupation for a different occupation. Occupational growth occurs as businesses grow and need more workers to serve their customers. 

Emerging occupations can be identified through growth openings. The chart below identifies occupations that have the highest number of growth openings and higher than the state average growth rates. The total number of openings indicates the projected number of vacancies that businesses will need to fill annually.

Growth openings are projected at all education and training levels and are listed by the highest number of growth openings. The highest number of growth openings in Now occupations are Personal Care Aides, Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Janitors and Cleaners, Home Health Aides, and Construction Laborers. The largest growth in Next occupations is in the occupations of Nursing Assistants, Cooks, Medical Secretaries, Maintenance and Repair Workers, and Computer User Support Specialists. Later occupations with the highest growth are Registered Nurses, Software Developers, General and Operations Managers, Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists, and Computer Systems Analysts. These occupations are consistent with the industries identified as emerging industries.

Real-Time Labor Market Data

Job ads placed by employers offer another source of information on the knowledge, skills and certifications requested by Missouri’s employers. Labor Insight/Burning Glass is a data tool that spiders to over 35,000 different web sites with job ads. The information found in the ads are placed in a database that can be queried to gain intelligence on employer needs.

Ten industries growing faster than the state average over the last 5 and 10 years were identified in the Economic Analysis section of the Missouri Combined State Plan. These industries are listed below with the specialized skills, certifications and software and programming requested most by employers in job ads.  

In the software and programming category, Microsoft Office and its products such as Word, Excel, Powerpoint, and Access ranked at the top of the list across all industries. Industry-specific programs identified in the job ads are listed in the table.