Narrative: II. a. 1. A.

Since 2012, several industry sectors in Missouri have continued to emerge and consistently increase overall employment, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, LEHD. Topping the list of increased employment between 2012 and 2016, both in overall number and percentage of increase are the industries of Healthcare and Social Assistance (42,516); Accommodation and Food Services (21,465); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services(20,973); Administrative and Support (14,707); Manufacturing (14, 120);and Construction (10,646).The long-term industry projections predict continued growth in these emerging industries over the next 10 years. The highest projected growth is found in the industries of Healthcare and Social Assistance (56,919); Accommodation and Food Services (17,734); Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (16,122); Educational Services (15,596); Administrative and Support (14,666); Retail Trade (14,285); Construction (12,445); and Finance and Insurance (12,204).

The demand for occupations required in the emerging industries is evident in the job postings by Missouri employers in the most recent edition of the Missouri Real-Time Labor Market Summary. In this summary, occupations are divided into categories based on the level of training typically required to successfully perform the work associated with the job.

Figure 1. - Now, Next and Later Occupations

Data for the top 10 jobs in each skill category are listed and are directly connected to the emerging industries. Occupations in Health Care; Accommodation and Food Services; Administrative and Support; and information technology (Professional, Scientific and Technical Services); and sales positions are generally among the top-posted occupations statewide and in each region.

Developing sector strategies and career pathways within these industries will ensure a qualified, educated workforce, allowing the industries to continue to grow and thrive in the state. Missouri contracted with Maher and Maher, a national consultant, to start its sector strategies initiative. Using data and research, each region chose a high-demand, high-growth industry, and the consultant guided the group through the process of working with industries, workforce professionals and education partners. Depending on the data and needs in each area, most regions chose to focus on the manufacturing industry, while others chose transportation; logistics and warehousing; and healthcare. The employment needs, including pinpointing the occupations that would be needed within the businesses in the region, as well as the knowledge, skills and abilities required to be successful on the job, was identified for the sector. By building regional knowledge and capacity, the regions can duplicate the process of sector strategies with additional high-demand industries.

Figure 2.- High-demand Industries by Region and Sector

As a part of Missouri’s Annual Economic Report, analysis is prepared for the regions, allowing a greater understanding of the industry and workforce in each area of the state. St. Louis and Kansas City have more than 1 workforce development area within the metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and the data for these areas is combined within the MSA. A summary of information for each region is included in the plan.

Central Region

The nineteen county Central Region is home to a workforce of over 276,000 employees, or 10 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment in the region increased 1.1 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2015 to the 3rd quarter of 2016, which is slightly less than Missouri’s employment growth rate of 1.3 percent. In April 2017, the unemployment rate in the region was 3.5 percent.

Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Public Administration; Educational Services and Manufacturing. The Central Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are slightly less than the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty-one percent of the Central Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high school diploma or equivalent.

Kansas City Region

The Kansas City Region is made of 5 counties and combines 2 workforce development areas. The Kansas City Region is home to nearly 541,000 employees, or 20 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment increased in the region by 2.8 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2015 to the 3rd quarter of 2016, which is the highest growth rate of any region in Missouri over that time. In April 2017, the unemployment rate in the region was 3.8 percent.

Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; and Manufacturing. The Kansas City Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are slightly above the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty-four percent of the Kansas City Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-seven percent of the workforce in region has a high school diploma or equivalent, compared to 88 percent for the State.

Northeast Region

The Northeast Region consists of 16 counties. The region’s workforce numbers just over 78,000 employees, or 3 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment in the region increased 1.3 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2015 to 3rd quarter of 2016, which matches Missouri’s growth rate over that time. In April 2017, the unemployment rate in the region was 3.7 percent.

Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Manufacturing; Educational Services; and Accommodation and Food Services. The Northeast Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are below the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Nineteen percent of the Northeast Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high school diploma or equivalent.

Northwest Region

The Northwest Region is made up of 18 counties. The region’s workforce numbers nearly 94,000 employees, or 4 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment in the region increased 0.8 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2015 to the 3rd quarter of 2016, which was below the Missouri growth rate of 1.3 percent. In April 2017, the unemployment rate in the region was 3.5 percent.

Top industries in the region by employment include Manufacturing; Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; and Educational Services. The Northwest Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are below the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty percent of the Northwest Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high

The Ozark Region is composed of 7 counties in southwest Missouri. The region is home to a workforce of over 231,000, or 9 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment in the region grew 1.1 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2015 to the 3rd quarter of 2016, which was slightly less than the Missouri employment growth rate of 1.3 percent. In April 2017, the unemployment rate in the region was 3.6 percent.

Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Manufacturing; and Educational Services. The Ozark Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are below the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty percent of the Ozark Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in both the state and region has a high school diploma or equivalent.

South Central Region

The South Central Region consists of 12 counties. The region is home to a workforce of nearly 59,000 employees, or 2 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment in the region grew 0.2 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2015 to the 3rd quarter of 2016, which as below that of Missouri’s employment growth rate of 1.3 percent. In April 2017, unemployment in the region was 4.9 percent.

Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Manufacturing; Accommodation and Food Services; and Educational Services. The South Central occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are below that of Missouri. Sixteen percent of the South Central Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-seven percent of the workforce in the region has a high school diploma or equivalent, while 88 percent have achieved that level for the state.

Southeast Region

The Southeast Region consists of 13 counties. The region is home to a workforce of over 137,000, or 5 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment declined in the region 0.6 percent from the 3rd quarter 2015 to 3rd quarter 2016, which is below the statewide employment growth rate of 1.3 percent. In April 2017, the unemployment rate in the region was 4.7 percent.

Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Manufacturing; Accommodation and Food Services; and Educational Services. The Southeast Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are below that of Missouri. Seventeen percent of the Southeast Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-seven percent of the workforce in the region has a high school diploma or equivalent, while 88 percent have achieved that level for the state.

Southwest Region

The Southwest Region has 7 counties. The region is home to a workforce of over 109,000, or 4 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment declined in the region 0.1 percent, which is below the statewide employment growth rate of 1.3 percent. In April 2017, the unemployment rate in the region was 3.5 percent. Top industries in the region by employment include Manufacturing; Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; and Transportation and Warehousing. The Southwest Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are below that of Missouri. Seventeen percent of the Southwest Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-six percent of the workforce in the region has a high school diploma or equivalent, while 88 percent have achieved that level for the state.

St. Louis Region

The St. Louis Region is comprised of 5 counties and combines 4 workforce development areas. The St. Louis Region has a workforce of over 1,054,000 employees, or 40 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment in the region increased 1.3 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2015 to the 3rd quarter of 2016, matching the Missouri employment growth rate over that time period. In April 2017, the unemployment rate in the region was 3.6 percent.

Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; Manufacturing; and Administrative and Support Services. The St. Louis Region occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are above the state for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Twenty-five percent of the St. Louis Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-eight percent of the workforce in the St. Louis Region has a high school diploma or equivalent, matching that of Missouri.

West Central Region

The West Central Region is comprised of 13 counties. The region is home to a workforce of nearly 82,000 employees, or 3 percent of Missouri’s employment (QCEW, 3rd quarter 2016). Employment declined in the region 0.5 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2015 to the 3rd quarter of 2016, which is below the state growth rate of 1.3 percent. In April 2017, the unemployment rate in the region was 4.0 percent.

Top industries in the region by employment include Health Care and Social Assistance; Manufacturing; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; and Educational Services. The West Central occupational projections, as well as real-time data from job ads, support the need for occupations typically employed in the top industries.

The educational attainment levels for the region are below that of Missouri. Nineteen percent of the West Central Region workforce has a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared to 23 percent of Missouri’s workforce. Eighty-seven percent of the workforce in the region has a high school diploma or equivalent, while 88 percent have achieved that level for the state.

Real—Time Labor Market Analysis

In 2012 MERIC began using a new tool to assess current, or real—time, demand for occupations throughout the state. The tool, provided by Burning Glass Technologies, captures online job advertisements and aggregates those jobs by occupation and industry codes. While on—line advertisements do not represent all job openings, as other informal networks are also used, it does provide a broad picture of hiring activity and serves as one measure of current labor demand.

Industrial Demand Industry demand analysis from June 2016 through May 2017 showed that the Healthcare Industry (Hospitals and Ambulatory Health Care Services) was a top job advertiser, Truck Transportation; Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; and Food Services and Drinking Places rounded out the top five. A few of the industries, such as General Merchandise Stores and Administrative Services have high turnover rates so the large number of job advertisements can reflect the need to refill positions rather than to add new jobs. Other industries, such as Education Services; Credit Intermediation; and Insurance Carriers, with more modest turnover rates, employ large numbers of people and need to fill their vacancies.

Figure 3.

Occupational Demand

Job analysis highlights the top ten occupations Missouri employers advertised for in the past year. Truck Drivers were in the greatest demand, followed by Registered Nurses. Several sales and administrative occupations such as Sales Representatives; Retail Salespersons; Supervisors of Retail Salespersons; Customer Service Representatives and Managers are represented on the list. Two technical occupations, Software Developers and General Maintenance and Repair Workers, are also in high demand.

Real-Time Labor Market Analysis provides a snapshot of current labor demand that is particularly helpful to current job seekers interested in who is hiring and for what occupations. MERIC has developed products, like the Real Time Labor Market Summary, using this tool. The Labor Market Summary provides both a regional and statewide snapshot of data found in job ads and is published every quarter. MERIC and DWD will continue to explore how this data can inform workforce and economic development efforts to meet the needs of businesses around the state.

Figure 4.

Short—Term Projections

MERIC develops short—term employment projections based on industry trends and staffing patterns. Of the top ten industries that are projected to have the largest employment growth between 2016 and 2018, three are in the sector of Health Care and Social Assistance, and two are in the Construction sector. Other industry sectors that are represented in the top ten include the Educational Services; Food Service; and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services.

Industry analysis leads to occupational projections which were developed for the state and two major workforce regions of St. Louis and Kansas City. The top job openings take into account both growth and replacement needs for an occupation over time. For example, a large amount of job openings that employers fill come from the need to replace workers who have moved into other positions or left the workforce entirely. Of the top ten occupations with the most total openings over the short-term projections period, nine have more replacement openings than growth openings.

The top ten occupations for the 2014 to 2016 time period include five from the service industry: Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers (9,703); Cashiers (9,053); Retail Salespersons (8,234); Waiters and Waitresses (7,384); and Customer Service Representatives (4,051). With relatively low wages, these service sector occupations have large amounts of turnover.

Figure 5.

Long—Term Projections

MERIC develops long—term employment projections based on industry trends and staffing patterns. The table below shows the industries projected to have largest employment growth from 2014-2024.

Figure 6.

Between 2014 and 2024, the industries that are projected to experience the largest employment growth are Restaurants (17,241), General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (13, 286), and Individual and Family Services (12,360).

The long—term statewide occupational projections show that the occupations with the most total job openings are in Food Services and Sales. Total openings are a combination of growth openings and replacement openings. Cashiers, for example, are projected to have employment of 71,762 by 2024, which is only 1,944 jobs more than in 2014. This means that of the 31, 650 projected total openings, only 1,944 are due to new job growth while 29,706 openings are due to replacement needs. Total openings are important to job seekers as they search for employment opportunities and may indicate where new training needs may exist to ensure that workers are reached to fill vacant positions.

Figure 7.

The recession and prolonged recovery displaced a large number of workers and made it difficult for young job seekers entering the labor force as fewer openings and delayed retirements increased job competition. This has been true for the nation as a whole and for Missouri as well. Employers through this difficult economy have looked for ways to increase worker productivity to keep cost down and the business doors open. This need for higher productivity is not new but did accelerate through the recession and means that employers will increasingly demand higher levels of basic and specialized skills as hiring activity continues to pick up.

MERIC has worked with the St. Louis Community College since 2009 to survey businesses in the state’s largest regional economy about workforce needs. In the State of the St. Louis Workforce Report, surveyed employers indicated that the largest challenge to continued employment growth was the shortage of workers with knowledge or skills. Employers indicated that finding workers, even with college degrees, with adequate basic skills was a challenge. Throughout the workforce, job applicants often lacked basic personal effectiveness competencies such as communication and interpersonal skills, work ethic, discipline, critical thinking and problem solving, and the ability to think creatively. Many jobs in an economy are entry level in nature, such as Retail Salespeople and Food Service workers, that require little technical training but do require basic skills. Many businesses need these workers, as is indicated in the job openings data, and realize that many of these occupations face high turnover rates largely due to lower wages. While these lower skilled jobs are plentiful and offer an opportunity for the challenged job seekers, employers still expect applicants to have common business skills of professionalism, communication, and problem solving abilities.