Narrative: II. a. 1. B.

Based on population estimates from the American Community Survey, Missouri gained over 123,000 people between 2010 and 2015, bringing the total population to over 6,045,000. The total distribution between gender remains unchanged with 49 percent of the population male and 51 percent female.

Figure 8.

The population is aging as the above chart illustrates. Using American Community Survey five-year population estimates, the percent of total population over the age of 55 grew from 25 percent in 2010 to 28 percent in 2015. These gains are countered by losses in the share of under 20 and between the ages of 35 and 54.

Missourians age 25 to 34 constitutes the young population able to fill the potential workforce gaps of the future. Nationally, over the course of the next two decades, it is projected that 10,000 Baby Boomers will reach retirement age per day. This labor shortage will leave a large gap to be filled by the 25 to 34 demographic.

Geographic Change

St. Louis and Kansas City remain the largest population centers for Missouri and show some shifting of populations further out from the urban core. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, the largest number growth from 2010-2015 took place in Missouri’s more urban counties, as well as the smaller metropolitan areas of Springfield, Columbia and Cape Girardeau. St. Charles County experienced the highest growth (25,105), followed by Clay County (13,763) and Jackson County (13,392).

The population decreased in seventy-four counties plus the City of St. Louis over the five year period of 2010-2015. Three counties lost more than 1,000 residents, including the City of St. Louis (-3,680), Stone County (-1,265) and Dunklin County (-1,058).

Figure 9.

Population Change

Overall, Missouri’s population numbers are increasing according to the U.S. Census 1-Year American Community Survey. Between July 1, 2015 and July 1, 2016, the state experienced a net increase in population of nearly 17,000 due to births and deaths as well as migration of residents into the state. The total number of births was over 74,400, while the total deaths were nearly 58,700, for a net increase of 15,700. In addition, the net migration into the state totals over 2,100 residents.

In comparison, 43 states (including the District of Columbia) across the U.S. experienced total population growth. Only 2 states experienced a net population loss due to more deaths than births during the year. Thirty-two states experienced population growth, with more people moving into the state than leaving.

Minority Population Growth

Missouri’s largest minority race category, Black or African American, experienced population increases from 2010 to 2015. The Black population grew 3 percent from 674,741 in 2010 to 691,629 in 2015.

According to the American Community Survey, the state also added over 4,100 American Indian and Alaska Native persons from 2010 to 2015. Missouri’s Asian and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander population also grew during the same time period by over 22,000.

Figure 10.

Figure 11.

The Black population increased in 83 counties in Missouri between 2010 and 2015. St. Louis County reported the largest increase in population (5,996) followed by Clay County with 4,794 and St. Charles County with 2,279. St. Louis City experienced the largest decline in the number of the Black population, losing 7,470 people.

Missouri’s largest ethnic population, people of Hispanic or Latino origin, grew by 17 percent from 198,670 in 2010 to 233,046 in 2015. The highest increase of Hispanic population occurred in Jackson County (6,513), followed by St. Louis County (3,475) and Clay County (2,678).

Current Minority Population

The U.S. Census Bureau (2011-2015 American Survey, 5-Year Estimates) publishes population information for demographic groups. In 2015, Missouri’s total population numbered just over 6 million. The charts illustrate the percentage of the two largest minority groups in the state for that year.

Missouri has a significant population of Black or African American citizens. The state’s population of Black citizens is nearly 700,000, or 12 percent of the total population. The Missouri counties with the highest percentage of Black population include St. Louis City (47.5 percent), Pemiscot (26.8 percent), Mississippi (24.1 percent), Jackson (23.5 percent) and St. Louis County (23.3 percent).

Over 233,000 Hispanics called Missouri home, accounting for almost 4 percent of Missouri’s total population. Missouri counties with the highest Hispanic populations include Sullivan (18.3 percent), McDonald (11.3 percent), Pulaski (10.3 percent), Saline (9.2 percent), Jackson (8.7 percent) and Barry (8.5 percent).

Figure 12.

Figure 13.

In comparison, Missouri’s Black and Hispanic population percentage is below that of the United States. Thirteen percent of the U.S. population is Black, compared to 12 percent of Missouri’s population. The Hispanic population has greater differences between the U.S. and Missouri numbers. Seventeen percent of the U.S. population is Hispanic compared to 4 percent in Missouri. All other race categories make up 11 percent of the U.S. population, compared to 3 percent of Missouri’s population.

Limited English Proficiency

According to the 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 6 percent (342,294) of Missouri’s population age five and over spoke a language other than English at home, much lower than the national rate of 21 percent. Spanish was the most common non-English languages spoken in homes both in Missouri and across the nation. Other common languages spoken at home included German, Chinese, and African in Missouri; Tagalog and Vietnamese in the United States.

Figure 14.

Figure 15.

Individuals with Disabilities

According to the American Community Survey 2011-2015 estimates, just over 14 percent, or 848,455 of Missourians and 12 percent (38,601,898) of the United States population age 18-64, had a disability. Ambulatory difficulty was the most prevalent disability type in Missouri at 6.5 percent, followed by Cognitive Difficulty (5.5%) and Independent Living Difficulty (4.4%).

Figure 16.

Employment and Unemployment

During the recession, the number of Missourians employed in the state decreased, while the number of unemployed increased to over 9 percent statewide. Over time, employers have become more confident in hiring workers, and the unemployment rate has decreased to a low of 3.9 percent in April 2017.

Figure 17.

Figure 18.

Even with the low unemployment rate statewide, Missouri still has pockets where the unemployment rate is high. The unemployment rate increased in 7 counties statewide.

Figure 19.

Missouri’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016 totaled nearly $264 billion. The Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing sector was the largest at 18 percent. Manufacturing and Professional and Business Services represented 13 percent of Missouri’s output, followed by Government at 12 percent. Over the past ten years, GDP has increased in real terms by 6 percent, while the nominal GDP growth has been 29 percent. Over the past 5 years, Missouri GDP increased 4 percent in real terms and 13 percent in nominal dollars. In 2015, Missouri had the seventh most diversified economy in the United States. This diversity allows Missouri to better withstand and recover from significant, unfavorable changes in any one sector.

Figure 20.

Although farm output in Missouri makes up a small percentage of the state’s total Gross Domestic Product, agriculture is an important part of Missouri’s economy. Missouri is second only to Texas in the total number of farms at just over 99,171 establishments and is a top ten producer of hogs (7th among states), cattle (3rd), poultry, and cotton (9th). Missouri’s grain production is ranked 11th in the nation and represents the state’s top valued commodity. Many of these products are exported or serve as feedstock to Missouri’s second largest production sector, food manufacturing, which in 2016 employed over 39,000 people in the state.

Missouri non-farm employment in April 2017 totaled almost 2.9 million workers and the top subsectors for jobs were in Trade; Transportation and Utilities; Educational and Health Services and Government. Over the past two years the Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities sector has seen the highest percentage growth (10.6 percent) while Professional and Business Services (6.5 percent) and Leisure and Hospitality (5.4 percent) rounded out the second and third spot. Manufacturing had declined by 45,000 jobs from 2007 to 2009, a decrease of 14.8 percent, but from 2015 to 2017 jobs rose by 3,900.

From April 2015 to April 2017, the subsector of Health Care and Social Assistance saw the largest increase in employment (15,800), followed by Accommodation and Food Services (15,500) and Food Services and Drinking Places (14,300). As a whole, Information (-3,900) had the largest decline, followed by Government positions (-3,400). Construction employment has begun a rebound, increasing by 4.2 percent after large decreases in employment dating to 2007.

Figure 21.

Labor Market Trends

Top Occupations and Skills

The top ten occupations were analyzed for skill needs using WorkKeys® scores. WorkKeys® skill scores, for Reading for Information, Applied Mathematics, and Locating Information, provide a standardized scoring system ranging from 3 to 7 (low to high) and are based on national foundational and personal assessments used to measure cognitive abilities and the work potential of individuals. The majority of the top ten occupations based solely on total openings require short-term on-the-job training. Registered Nurses and General and Operations Managers are the only two occupations that usually require a formal degree, while Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Drivers require training and specialized driver’s license. General and Operations Managers and Registered Nurses require the highest scores, at 5 for the WorkKeys® scores of Reading for Information and Applied Mathematics, and a score of 4 in the Locating Information section. Specific skills at this level might include applying technical terms and jargon and applying complex instructions that include conditionals to situations. The remaining eight occupations require scores of 3 or 4. These include specific skills such as converting simple money and time units and calculating averages, ratios, or rates using whole numbers and decimals.

Fastest Growing Jobs by Education Level

Long-term projections are used to identify the fastest growing occupations, thereby providing a perspective on the potential need for more job training and education resources. Fueled by the growth in Healthcare Practitioners and Education occupation groups, careers requiring a graduate degree are expected to experience the highest growth rates between 2014 and 2024. Growth in occupations requiring long-term On-the-Job Training (OJT) or apprenticeship programs, will be fueled by Construction and Installation, Maintenance and Repair occupations.

Figure 22.

Top Growing Occupations

Over the long-term, industry needs for certain occupations grow while others decline. These growing occupations will need trained workers to fill employer demand and will, in turn, offer job seekers bright prospects for employment.

Personal Care Aides have the largest growth openings (11,090), followed by Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers (9,584) and Registered Nurses (9,228) (See table on next page). When occupations are separated by typical education training levels, the mix of top ten occupations highlights the job growth needs of industry by shorter-term training, longer-term to associate’s degree, and bachelor’s degree or higher. These three different categories are named “Now”, “Next”, and “Later”.

Shorter-term training jobs include occupations in personal care (Personal Care Aides), food service (Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers), and office and administrative (Customer Service Representatives).

Jobs that typically require longer-term to an associate’s degree include occupations in healthcare support (Nursing Assistants), food service (Restaurant Cooks and Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers), and computers (Computer User Support Specialist).

Bachelor’s degree or higher occupations show top job growth in healthcare (Registered Nurses), management (General and Operations Manager), and computers (Computer Systems Analysts and Software Developers).

Figure 23.

Education and Skill Levels of the Workforce

SHORT-TERM PROJECTIONS

Employment by Education Level

Occupations typically requiring short-term on-the-job training (OJT) are projected to experience a large employment increase (+31,585) from 2016 to 2018. Occupations that do not typically require a formal education credential are also projected to experience a large employment increase (24,715) from 2016 to 2018. Workers in occupations that typically require a bachelor’s degree are projected to account for over 20 percent of total employment in 2018.

Figure 24.

Top Occupations by Education Level

The 2016-2018 short-term occupational projections are used to identify the top ten occupations based on total openings and level of education or training needed. Top occupations requiring short to moderate-term training include food preparation (Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers and Waiters and Waitresses) and sales occupations (Cashiers and Retail Salespersons).

Top occupations requiring long-term training to an associate’s degree include healthcare support (Nursing and Assistants) and food preparation occupations (Restaurant Cooks and First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers). Jobs that typically require an education of a bachelor’s degree or higher, include occupations in healthcare (Registered Nurses), management (General and Operations Managers), and education (Secondary and Elementary School Teachers).

Figure 25.

Top Occupations by Skill

The top ten occupations were analyzed for skill needs using WorkKeys® scores. WorkKeys® skill scores, for Reading for Information, Applied Mathematics, and Locating Information, provide a standardized scoring system ranging from 3 to 7 (low to high) and are based on national foundational and personal assessments used to measure cognitive abilities and the work potential of individuals.

The majority of the top ten occupations based solely on total openings require short-term OJT. Registered Nurses and General and Operations Managers are the only two occupations that typically require an education beyond high school. General and Operations Managers and Registered Nurses require the highest median WorkKeys® scores, at 5 for the scores of Reading for Information and Applied Mathematics, and a score of 4 in the Locating Information section. Specific skills at these levels might include calculating percent discounts or markups, applying technical terms and jargon to a situation, or summarizing and comparing information and trends presented in workplace graphics. The remaining eight occupations require scores of 3 or 4. These include specific skills such as calculating sales tax or recognizing the application of complex instructions in company procedure documents.

Fastest Growing Jobs by Education Level

Fast growth in occupations means that they will provide a larger share of new positions in the future, thereby providing better employment prospects and more favorable conditions for mobility and advancement. Fueled by the growth in education and healthcare, occupations that typically require a graduate degree are projected to experience the fastest growth rate (3.8%) between 2016 and 2018.

Figure 26.

LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS

Jobs by Education Level

Occupations typically requiring short-term OJT are expected to account for the largest portion of 2014-2024 employment change.

Occupations requiring short-term OJT are projected to experience increased employment of over 62,000, or 5.2 percent growth. Employment in occupations that do not typically require a formal education credential are projected to experience an increase of almost 52,000 jobs by 2024. Increased employment is also projected for occupations that typically require high school diplomas and occupations that typically require bachelor’s degrees with over 45,000 jobs projected for each category.

Workers employed in occupations that typically require less than a postsecondary education are projected to make up almost 63 percent of total employment by 2024. The employment of occupations that typically require a bachelor’s degree is projected to make up over 21 percent of total employment by 2024.

Figure 27.

Top Occupations by Education Level

The 2014-2024 long-term occupational projections were used to identify the top ten occupations based on total openings and level of education or training needed. Top occupations requiring short to moderate-term training include service (Retail Salespersons) and support sector (Office Clerks) occupations. Occupations requiring at least long term OJT or as much as an associate’s degree include occupations in the fields of healthcare (Nursing Assistants), maintenance (General Maintenance and Repair Workers), and food service (Restaurant Cooks).The top occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher include occupations in the field of healthcare (Registered Nurses), management (General and Operations Managers), and education (School Teachers).

Figure 28.

Skills Gaps

Analysis of the skills and education gaps that employers have identified is an important step in determining what training issues need to be addressed. National business surveys point to skills gaps that have negatively impacted the economy, such as a 2011 manufacturing survey that indicated 74 percent of respondents had workforce shortages or skills deficiencies in skill production jobs, even with a large number of unemployed manufacturing workers available for hire . At the state level, MERIC has developed target industry competency models, conducted business surveys, and recently acquired a real-time labor market skills demand tool that provides valuable insight into the needs of Missouri employers.

Figure 29.

MERIC conducted Industry Competency Model analysis for many of the state’s targeted industry sectors, such as Energy, Information Technology, Transportation, and Life Sciences. In doing so, the reports revealed that workers will need to enhance their existing skills sets to meet the demands of new and evolving technologies used in these growing industry sectors, and employers seek a good skill mix of both technical and soft skills in their workers. Interdisciplinary knowledge is a key ingredient to success, especially in high-tech sectors. Proficiency in rules and regulations was also rated as highly important and necessary for work in today’s complex business environment.

The Industry Competency Model reports also highlighted issues related to the overall aging of the workforce. The imminent retirement of a large segment of workers across the targeted sectors could result in a shortage of this specialized labor pool. The ability to produce a sustainable pipeline of skilled workers will be important for the success of these sectors and the economy as a whole.

Missouri employers indicate through job advertisements the basic and specialized skills needed to be successful in their business. While these needed skills do not necessarily point to gaps, it does provide a snapshot of skill demand and reinforces some of findings from earlier surveys and competency model analysis. MERIC researchers analyzed over 416,000 online job advertisements from June 2016 to May 2017, using a tool from Burning Glass Technologies, to determine what skills were in greatest demand over the year.

When considering all occupations, common skills are listed the most in job advertisements and show that basic business fundamentals, communication, organization and writing skills are the most cited. Problem solving and physical demand complete the list of top five common skills.

Analysis of specific occupational clusters shows more targeted skill needs in jobs related to healthcare, information technology, finance, engineering and manufacturing. Many of these occupational clusters relate to the industries Missouri has targeted for economic growth.

Basic skills cover a broad range of topics, such as reading and writing, applied math, logic flows, information gathering, ethics, etc., and mainly relate to the educational efforts of primary and secondary schools, institutions of higher learning, and workforce training programs. From the workers’ standpoint, many of these skills are hopefully gained through education and early work opportunities as a younger person however evidence from skills gap analysis suggest this is still a challenge. Partnerships by educators, businesses, workforce and economic developers should continue to focus efforts on this issue as these basic skills form the foundation for successful, occupation-specific training to follow.

Specific occupational skills are learned through longer-term employment in an industry which provides training or through the more formal education of apprenticeships, community colleges, or four-year universities. Attaining these skills, outside of business experience and training, presents some challenges to job seekers, particularly those who have been unemployed for a long time period, and to educational institutions. Job seekers need affordable, flexible training alternatives, especially if the person needs to work while gaining new skills. Education providers work to keep up with industry trends and technology while also needing to adapt to new, cost-effective learning methods. As with basic skill development, stakeholders in a healthy, growing economy must also partner to meet the needs of both workers and business.

Missouri’s opportunities for long-term economic growth will increasingly depend on a well educated, flexible workforce that responds quickly to changing business needs. Targeted efforts to prepare workers start at a young age, are honed through higher education and work experience, and are sustained by a culture and ability to embrace life-long learning. Taking bold, and sometimes difficult, steps to equip Missouri’s workforce for success will be one of the strongest economic development tools a state can have in retaining and attracting the industries of the future.

Occupational projections predict the number of workers needed in different educational and skill levels. In Missouri, the projections support the need for workers at all different skill and education levels. Through sector strategies, career pathways can minimize skills gaps since they are validated with the businesses in the area, leading to the success of the workforce.

Through occupational projections we see the base skill level of the workforce, as well as increases and decreases in the need for those occupations. Using data from the projections, the charts below combine occupations by education and skill level, and illustrate the employment growth and need for educated and skilled workers at all levels over the 10 year projection period. From the charts, we see that a majority of projected openings are replacement openings. Therefore, there will be a continued need to replace workers that move to a different occupation along their career pathway. Using the information learned in the sector strategies process, the workforce and educational system must be prepared to meet the local demands and prepare individuals for careers at different levels of training and education.

Figure 30.

Figure 31.

Sector strategies and career pathways reinforce the need for workers at all levels. Within the career pathways, an individual has multiple entry and exit points based on their current skills and knowledge, as well as the person’s willingness and capacity to continue their education and training to advance along the pathway.

Through sector strategies, partnerships between all parties within the workforce system are formed. Career pathways are developed through the collaboration of employers, the education system, and workforce system. Within the career pathways, an individual has multiple entry and exit points based on current skills and knowledge, as well as the person’s willingness and capacity to continue to learn on the job, or through formal classroom education and/or training programs. The continued efforts of all WIOA partners ensure that all eligible persons, including those with disabilities, obtain skills to become or remain employed in high-demand, well-paid occupations.

MERIC, the WIOA agency leadership and the Sector Strategy research will strive to incorporate real-time feed-back from employers about the current status of labor market information in each region and for the state.

__________________________________ Source: Boiling Point? The skills gap in U.S. manufacturing. Deloitte Consulting and the Manufacturing Institute, 2011. Complete report at http://www.themanufacturinginstitute.org. Missouri Economic Report. Missouri Economic Research and Information Center (MERIC) Full report at https://www.missourieconomy.org/economic_report/index.stm