Located in:
- II. Strategic Elements
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include a Strategic Planning Elements section that analyzes the State’s current economic environment and identifies the State’s overall vision for its workforce development system. The required elements in this section allow the State to develop data-driven goals for preparing an educated and skilled workforce and to identify successful strategies for aligning workforce development programs to support economic growth. Unless otherwise noted, all Strategic Planning Elements apply to Combined State Plan partner programs included in the plan as well as to core programs.
- a. Economic, Workforce, and Workforce Development Activities Analysis
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the economic conditions, economic development strategies, and labor market in which the State’s workforce system and programs will operate.
- a. Economic, Workforce, and Workforce Development Activities Analysis
II. a. 1. A. Economic Analysis
The Unified or Combined State Plan must include an analysis of the economic conditions and trends in the State, including sub-State regions and any specific economic areas identified by the State. This must include—
i. Existing Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations
Provide an analysis of the industries and occupations for which there is existing demand.
ii. Emerging Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations
Provide an analysis of the industries and occupations for which demand is emerging.
iii. Employers’ Employment Needs
With regard to the industry sectors and occupations identified in (A)(i) and (ii), provide an assessment of the employment needs of employers, including a description of the knowledge, skills, and abilities required, including credentials and licenses.
Current Narrative:
II. a. 1. A. Economic Analysis
In 2019 Quarter 1, Louisiana’s Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction industry accounted for 4.4 percent of Louisiana’s $260.4 billion Gross Domestic Product (GDP), nearly three times the percentage of mining-related GDP nationally.
Mining and Logging has lost 3,714 jobs from 2016 Q1, to 2019 Q1, a 9.6 percent decrease. Louisiana Workforce Commission’s (LWC) forecasts anticipate continued decline through 2026– with a projected loss of 1,599 jobs. Overall, Louisiana’s long-term outlook is encouraging. The state expects an 8.3 percent rise in employment - over 168,208 new jobs - through 2026.
The Health Care and Social Assistance industry - a backbone of the state’s economy accounting for 7.6 percent of Louisiana’s GDP in 2019 Quarter 1 - is the largest contributor to long term employment growth, accounting for 20.2 percent of total forecasted new job growth through 2026.
Health Care and Social Assistance employment has grown 3.5 percent from 2016 Q1 to 2019 Q1. Health Care and Social Assistance accounted for 16 percent of Louisiana’s total employment in 2019 Q1, and the industry is further highlighted in Existing Demand Industry Sectors and Occupations below.
Louisiana’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has continued to decline, reaching 4.3 percent in June 2019. Labor force participation declined drastically in 2015 and 2016 but has stabilized, reaching 58.6 percent in June 2019.
Louisiana is home to eight Regional Labor Market Areas (RLMAs). Positive employment growth is projected for all RLMAs through 2026. Below are the employment highlights the eight regions:
- RLMA 1: New Orleans-Louisiana’s largest by nonfarm employment.
- Anticipates 8.2% projected growth through 2026. Three industries that anticipate the most growth are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (14.9% projected increase); Health Care and Social Assistance (11.9% projected increase); and Accommodation and Food Services (11.5% increase).
- RLMA 2: Baton Rouge
- Anticipates 10.1% projected growth through 2026. Three industries that anticipate the most growth are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (20.2% projected increase); Administrative and Waste Services (16.7% projected increase); and Accommodation and Food Services (14.8% projected increase).
- RLMA 3: Houma
- Anticipates 5.8% projected growth through 2026. Three industries that anticipate the most growth are Accommodation and Food Services (11.1% projected increase); Construction (10.6% projected increase); and Health Care and Social Assistance (10.1 % increase).
- RLMA 4: Lafayette
- Anticipates 6.0% projected growth through 2026. Three industries that anticipate the most growth are: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (12% projected increase); Health Care and Social Assistance (10.3% projected increase); and Construction (10% projected increase).
- RLMA 5: Lake Charles- Anticipates the highest projected growth in the state.
- Anticipates 13% projected growth through 2026. Three industries that anticipate the most growth are: Construction (26.1% projected increase); Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (25.8% projected increase); and Health Care and Social Assistance (15.6% projected increase).
- RLMA 6: Alexandria
- Anticipates 5.1% projected growth through 2026. Three industries that anticipate the most growth are: Health Care and Social Assistance (9.0% projected increase); Construction (8.1% projected increase); and Accommodation and Food Services (7.6% projected increase).
- RLMA 7: Shreveport
- Anticipates 6.8% growth through 2026. Three industries that anticipate the most growth are: Accommodation and Food Services (15.4% projected increase); Administrative and Waste Services (9.8% projected increase), and Health Care and Social Assistance (8.8% projected increase).
- RLMA 8: Monroe
- Anticipates 8% growth through 2026. Three industries that anticipate the most growth are: Administrative and Waste Services (17.9% projected increase); Health Care and Social Assistance (13.2% increase); and Accommodation and Food Services (12.6% projected increase).
The Louisiana Workforce Commission’s Louisiana Occupational Information System (LOIS), is the state’s Virtual Labor Market Information Web Portal. This interactive site provides users with access to the latest Louisiana labor force, wages, population, industry employment, training schools, training programs, report for completion rates, projections, demographics, nonfarm employment, employer database, unemployment claimants, industry staffing patterns, licensed occupations, demand occupations, and career products. The LMI tables and charts and figures that follow provide projections for Louisiana’s long-term industry growth.
Sources: The preceding section cited data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Current Employment Statistics Program, the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, and LWC Long Term Industry Projections.
(i) EXISTING DEMAND INDUSTRY SECTORS AND OCCUPATIONS[1]
Louisiana’s long-term employment projections suggest 8.3 percent growth in employment by 2026 in comparison to the projected growth rate of the United States of 6.6 percent.
Table 1 shows long term growth for the state and the RLMAs. The RLMA 5: Lake Charles, anticipates the fastest growth in the long term, followed by RLMA 2: Baton Rouge.
| RLMA | Region | 2016 Employment | 2026 Forecast | Long Term Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Statewide | 2,034,986 | 2,203,194 | 8.3% |
| 1 | New Orleans | 585,916 | 633,999 | 8.2% |
| 2 | Baton Rouge | 471,859 | 519,322 | 10.1% |
| 3 | Houma | 96,906 | 102,508 | 5.8% |
| 4 | Lafayette | 270,015 | 286,321 | 6.0% |
| 5 | Lake Charles | 154,563 | 174,720 | 13.0% |
| 6 | Alexandria | 96,893 | 101,795 | 5.1% |
| 7 | Shreveport | 239,944 | 256,167 | 6.8% |
| 8 | Monroe | 118,890 | 128,362 | 8.0% |
Table 2 highlights the ten industry subsectors contributing the most new jobs in Louisiana through 2026. Food Services and Drinking Places is expected to add the most jobs followed by Ambulatory Health Care Services and Professional and Technical Services.
| Industry | NAICS* Code | 2016 Employment | 2026 Forecast | Employment Growth | Percent Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food Services and drinking places | 722 | 168,112 | 188,771 | 20,659 | 12.3% |
| Ambulatory health care services | 621 | 99,067 | 115,139 | 16,072 | 16.2% |
| Professional and technical services | 541 | 86,609 | 100,825 | 14,216 | 16.4% |
| Educational Services | 611 | 164,798 | 175,899 | 11,101 | 6.7% |
| Administrative and support services | 561 | 90,918 | 101,622 | 10,704 | 11.8% |
| Self-employed workers | - | 113,539 | 122,492 | 8,953 | 7.9% |
| Hospitals | 622 | 103,976 | 111,593 | 7,617 | 7.3% |
| Social assistance | 624 | 44,535 | 50,926 | 6,391 | 14.4% |
| Specialty trade contractors | 238 | 65,700 | 71,334 | 5,634 | 8.6% |
| General merchandise stores | 452 | 55,377 | 60,731 | 5,354 | 9.7% |
*North American Industry Classification System
High ranking occupations are those with three, four, or five star rankings as determined by the Louisiana Workforce Commission. LWC’s star ratings system takes into account wages, job openings, employment, and projected growth for over six hundred occupations, both statewide and regionally. Table 3 shows the highest rated occupations contributing the most employment growth in Louisiana.
| Star_Rating | Occupational Title | 2016 Estimate | 2026 Projected | Annual New Jobs | 2018 Annual Average Wage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * * * * * | Registered Nurses | 44,620 | 50,700 | 610 | $ 63,973 |
| * * * | Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 45,620 | 49,910 | 430 | $ 27,675 |
| * * * * * | General and Operations Managers | 29,690 | 32,930 | 320 | $115,059 |
| * * * * | Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | 26,980 | 29,760 | 280 | $ 36,761 |
| * * * * | First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers | 27,570 | 29,910 | 230 | $ 39,169 |
| * * * * | Construction Laborers | 21,590 | 23,920 | 230 | $ 35,120 |
| * * * | First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 17,330 | 19,510 | 220 | $ 32,363 |
| * * * * | Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 25,000 | 27,090 | 210 | $ 42,088 |
| * * * * | Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers | 15,820 | 17,900 | 210 | $ 32,929 |
| * * * * * | Carpenters | 18,230 | 20,200 | 200 | $ 45,909 |
| * * * * * | Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education | 22,540 | 24,160 | 160 | $ 48,739 |
| * * * | Customer Service Representatives | 21,570 | 23,070 | 150 | $ 32,440 |
| * * * * * | Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers | 15,900 | 17,380 | 150 | $ 52,812 |
| * * * * * | Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 23,580 | 24,900 | 130 | $ 60,362 |
| * * * * * | First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers | 13,200 | 14,480 | 130 | $ 66,034 |
| * * * * * | Accountants and Auditors | 12,050 | 13,270 | 120 | $ 66,860 |
| * * * * * | Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters | 11,190 | 12,390 | 120 | $ 54,935 |
| * * * * * | Construction Managers | 5,320 | 6,490 | 120 | $ 99,609 |
| * * * * | First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 20,780 | 21,860 | 110 | $ 49,356 |
| * * * | Medical Assistants | 5,670 | 6,690 | 100 | $ 28,7 |
(ii) EMERGING DEMAND INDUSTRY SECTORS AND OCCUPATIONS[2]
Figure 1: 2026 Industry Projections for Louisiana, Two-Digit NAICS: Top 10
Figure 1 provides employment growth projections on the 10 industries expected to experience the greatest growth by 2026. The highest growth occupation according to these projections will be Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. The Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector employs workers with a high degree of expertise and training. The establishments in this sector perform activities such as: legal advice and representation; accounting, bookkeeping, and payroll services; architectural, engineering, and specialized design services; computer services; consulting services; research services; advertising services; photographic services; translation and interpretation services; veterinary services; and other professional, scientific, and technical services. Table 4 echoes these results.
| Industry Sector | Employment Growth | Percent Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services | 14,216 | 16.4% |
| Accommodation and Food Services | 24,593 | 12.2% |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 33,988 | 11.7% |
| Administrative and Waste Services | 11,434 | 11.4% |
| Management of Companies and Enterprises | 2,665 | 11.4% |
| Utilities | 797 | 9.4% |
| Construction | 12,117 | 8.6% |
| Arts, Entertainment and Recreation | 2,408 | 8.2% |
| Transportation and Warehousing | 6,638 | 8.1% |
| Other Services, Except Public Administration | 12,940 | 8.0% |
| Star Rating | Occupation Code | Occupation Title | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| * | 39-9021 | Personal Care Aides | 29.2% |
| * | 35-3021 | Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food | 21.2% |
| * * | 35-2014 | Cooks, Restaurant | 16.0% |
| * * * * * | 29-1141 | Registered Nurses | 13.6% |
| * * * * | 53-3033 | Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers | 13.1% |
| * * | 37-3011 | Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers | 12.8% |
| * * * | 35-1012 | First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers | 12.6% |
| * * | 37-2012 | Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 11.8% |
| * * | 37-2011 | Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners | 11.8% |
| * | 35-2021 | Food Preparation Workers | 11.7% |
Figure 2: Projected Employment through 2026 in the Health Care and Social Assistance Industry
Fueled by the aging of the baby boomers, the Health Care and Social Assistance Industry is projected to grow by 33,988 between 2016 and 2026. This growth is broken down further into the subsectors within the Social Assistance Industry: Ambulatory health care services, Hospitals, Nursing and residential care facilities, and social assistance industries. Over two thirds of the industry’s new job growth is attributable to employment in Ambulatory health care services and Hospitals.
(iii) EMPLOYERS’ EMPLOYMENT NEEDS
Louisiana has a focus on three industries - Health Care and Social Assistance, Transportation and Warehousing, and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services. Below are employment, wage, and projections data for each industry.
| Industry Sector | Establishments | Employment | Average Weekly Wage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total, All Industries | 134,816 | 1,917,345 | $954 |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 14,856 | 306,409 | $843 |
| Transportation & Warehousing | 4,944 | 83,433 | $1,135 |
| Professional and Technical Services | 16,541 | 92,994 | $1,307 |
Source: 2019 Quarter 1 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
| Industry Sector | 2016 Employment | 2026 Projected Employment | Long Term Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total, All Industries | 2,034,986 | 2,203,194 | 8.3% |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 289,924 | 323,912 | 11.7% |
| Transportation & Warehousing | 81,911 | 88,549 | 8.1% |
| Professional and Technical Services | 86,609 | 100,825 | 16.4% |
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission Long Term Industry Projections
| Transportation & Warehousing | 2016 Employment | Annual Total Openings |
|---|---|---|
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand | 45,620 | 6,890 |
| Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers | 25,000 | 2,960 |
| Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers | 15,820 | 1,950 |
| Bus Drivers, School or Special Client | 8,030 | 980 |
| Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels | 7,380 | 820 |
Source: LWC Long Term Staffing Patterns
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 2016 Employment | Annual Total Openings |
|---|---|---|
| Registered Nurses | 44,620 | 3,010 |
| Nursing Assistants | 23,510 | 2,990 |
| Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses | 21,050 | 1,560 |
| Home Health Aides | 8,350 | 1,400 |
| Physicians and Surgeons, All Other | 6,350 | 210 |
Source: LWC Long Term Staffing Patterns
| Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services | 2016 Employment | Annual Total Openings |
|---|---|---|
| Business Operations Specialists, All Other | 15,980 | 1,690 |
| Accountants and Auditors | 12,050 | 1,230 |
| Management Analysts | 4,070 | 430 |
| Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 2,440 | 320 |
| Loan Officers | 3,690 | 360 |
Source: LWC Long Term Staffing Patterns
[2] Louisiana Workforce Commission Short Term and Long Term Industry and Occupational Projections
[1] Louisiana Workforce Commission Long Term Industry and Occupational Projections