Narrative: II. a. 1. B.

Population Data

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that Missouri’s population grew to over 6.15 million, up by 0.2% in 2020 from the previous year. This compares to a 0.4% increase for the United States. Sixteen states declined in population from 2019 to 2020.

Counties with the largest population are St. Louis County (994,020), Jackson County (705,925), St. Charles County (406,204), St. Louis City (297,645), and Green County (294,997).  The county with the smallest population is Worth County (1,953).

Counties with the largest population increase between 2019 and 2020 were St. Charles County (4,579), Clay County (2,941), Boone County (1,907), Platte County (1,806), and Christian County (1,742). St. Louis City had the largest population decrease of 3,242.

Demographics

In some ways, Missouri’s population is similar to the U.S. population. Age group percentages are within one percentage point comparatively. The exception being Missouri’s population of residents age 55 and older is 1.5% higher than the U.S. average. The gender composition mirrors the U.S. with 51% female and 49% male.

Race/Ethnicity statistics for Missouri differ from national averages. A higher than average percentage of Missouri residents are white compared to the United States. In addition, the Hispanic or Latino population is only 4.3% of Missouri’s total population compared to 18.4% in the nation. Primary languages spoken by Missourians follow a similar pattern. Compared to U.S. averages, more Missourians speak only English while a lower percentage of Missourians speak other languages.

More working age Missourians report a disability compared to the national average. Missouri is also home to more veterans than the national average. The poverty rate for the state is slightly higher than the nation.

Community Services Block Grant (CSBG) demographics are 61% female and 49% male, 72% are White, 21% are Black, 2.9 % Hispanic, 27.8% are disabled, 67% are unemployed, 48.8% have a high school diploma and 51.2% do not have a high school diploma.

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and SkillUP Demographics for FFY ’20 - October 1, 2019 – September 30, 2020, are 71% female and 29% male, 64% are unemployed.  TANF clients are required to participate in work activities as defined in an individual employment plan (IEP) and participate in employment and training services through the Missouri Work Assistance (MWA) Program. The Family Support Division (FSD) requires providers to make referrals to mental health providers, substance abuse service providers, domestic violence service providers, support groups, and any other entities to assist recipients find appropriate resources and services to achieve the goal of employment and economic self-sufficiency.  The Department of Social Services (DSS) recognizes the need for a mix of treatment and work opportunities and that successful employment for these clients often requires case management and support services.

Demographics for the MWA program show that 90.2% of participants are female and 9.8% are male, 54.1% are White, 40.4% are Black and 15.2% have a disability.

• CSBG participants in FY20 were 61% female and 49% male, 72% are White, 21% are Black or African American, 2.9% are Hispanic or Latino. In addition, 28% are disabled, 67% are unemployed, 49% have a high school diploma and 51% do not have a high school diploma.
• SkillUP participants in FY20 (employment and training program for SNAP) reports are 71% female and 29% male. Overall, there were 657,000 SNAP recipients receiving benefits with 58% female and 42% male. 15% of SNAP recipients are disabled. There are 321,524 households, and 225,143 have some income or 70%.
• In FY20 Missouri Work Assistance Program participants (employment and training program for Temporary Assistance (TA)) are 90% female and 10% male. Of the participants, 54% are White, 40% are Black, and 15% have a disability. Overall, there were 13,839 TA recipients receiving benefits with 58% female and 42% male. 4% of SNAP recipients are disabled. There are 6,038 households, and 251 have some income or 4%.

Employment and Unemployment

The number of Missourians in the labor force has remained relatively steady over the past 10 years at over 3 million, with a decline during 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of individuals employed increased steadily until 2019, dropped considerably during 2020, and has begun to rebound as the economy recovers. As of June 2021, there were 2,923,517 employed Missourians.

During 2020, Missouri’s unemployment rate increased rapidly due to COVID-19 related shutdowns with the rate reaching a peak of 12.5% in April 2020. During recovery, the state’s unemployment rate reached 4.4%by December and was 4.3%in June 2021.

Another measure of the workforce is a comparison of the number of job openings to the number of unemployed people, or more simply stated, supply vs. demand. After years of economic improvement and leveling of supply and demand, Missouri reached peak of over four workers per job opening in April 2020 due to the pandemic.  By March 2021, that ratio shrank to less than one worker for each job opening.

An analysis of Missouri’s labor market trends clearly shows a significant drop in the labor participation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Missouri utilized the resources of its partner agencies to offer training and employment services to increase this participation rate.

As Missouri worked to recover from the effects of COVID-19, several significant trends, which were depicted in the overall and local labor market information, have continued. One of the trends noted statewide and in the local analysis were jobs focusing on the supply chain. There was a high need for over the road and local truck drivers, as well as warehouse and logistics workers. As a response to this need, Governor Parson established a Supply Chain Taskforce, co-chaired by the Office of Workforce Development and the Department of Transportation. This taskforce, which consists of other state agency partners as well as employers and trainers for the trucking industry, were charged with developing strategies to address this critical labor shortage.

Similarly, in response to the significant increase in health care positions, Governor Parson established a multi-agency taskforce, known as the Healthcare Taskforce, to focus on this crisis. This taskforce also includes employers and healthcare associations, as well as educational institutions, all working toward increasing the candidate pool for these positions.

WIOA partners have also strategized with state agencies who are experiencing a critical need for entry-level positions, such as Head Start teachers, as well as home health care workers.

Labor Force Participation

Missouri’s population participates in the workforce at a higher rate than the national average.  However, the labor force participation rate has been declining in both Missouri and the United States. Labor force participation fell during the pandemic and has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Top Growing Occupations

Over the long term, industry needs for certain occupations grow while others decline. A trained and ready workforce is needed to fill employer demand and offer job seekers bright prospects for employment. 

Long-term projections are produced in each state in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and provide insight on the occupations that are growing and declining. The annual number of openings account for three different types of vacancies - exits, transfers, and growth. Exits occur as individuals leave the workforce for reasons such as retirement. Transfers occur as a person leaves an occupation to work in a different occupation. Growth means more people are needed to work in the occupation. No matter the reason for the vacancy, skilled workers are needed to fill job openings.

Missouri adds value to the standard projections template by including the ACT Workkeys Assessment Levels typically required for success in each of the 800+ occupations. Since most of Missouri’s counties participate in the Certified Work Ready Communities program, the levels help those researching careers find good options based on their personal assessment.

Missouri uses a system of NOW, NEXT, and LATER to categorize the occupations according to the training and education typically required for success on the job. NOW occupations typically require a high school education or less along with short-term training. NEXT occupations typically require moderate to long-term training or experience and or education beyond high school. LATER occupations typically require a bachelor’s degree or higher.

While long-term projections offer a solid understanding of longer-term employer needs, job ads help in recognizing the current needs of employers. When projections predict a high number of future openings and job ads show current demand for the same occupation, the occupation may be a good career possibility.

The table below displays the top 20 jobs by the number of projected openings in the NOW, NEXT and LATER categories. The arrow beside some of the occupations represents occupations with an above average number of job ads placed by employers in the last year.

Top occupations in the NOW category with over 10,000 annual openings from 2018-2028 each are Food Preparation and Serving Workers (15,919), Cashiers (13,768), Personal Care Aides (12,217), and Retail Salespersons (11,574). The reason for a high number of openings is turnover within these jobs. Each also had a high number of job ads from July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021.

Occupations with the highest number of annual openings in the NEXT category are Secretaries and Administrative Assistants (7,069) Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (5,871); Nursing Assistants (5,076); Restaurant Cooks (4,985); and Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks (3,565). The top five occupations by the number of projected openings also had a high number of job ads.

LATER occupations with the highest number of annual openings are Registered Nurses (5,525), General and Operations Managers (4,613), Accountants and Auditors (2,866), Secondary School Teachers (1,943), and Elementary School Teachers (1,871). Eleven of the jobs in this top 20 category are also in high demand according the job ads.

Many high demand occupations correspond directly with the high growth industry groups, such as Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers; Supervisors of Food Prep and Serving Workers; and Registered Nurses.  Other high demand occupations cross many industry groups, including Customer Service Representatives, Sales Representatives, General and Operations Managers, and Accountants and Auditors.

Educational Attainment

Total educational attainment in Missouri lags the U.S. averages. A higher percentage of Missourians have either a high school diploma or some college education but no degree compared to the national average. However, less Missourians have earned an associate degree, bachelor’s degree, or graduate/professional degree than the national average.

The regional economies in the state vary, as do the educational attainment rates in those regions. In general, a greater percentage of the workforce has a high school diploma in Missouri’s rural areas than urban, and more have an associate degree, bachelor’s degree, or graduate/professional degree in urban areas of the state.

Occupational Projections

Long-term projections are used to identify the fastest growing occupations, as well as occupations with a high number of openings through 2028. 

The growth rate of an occupation measures the percentage of jobs added by occupation. According to the projections, occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree or more are growing at a faster rate than the Missouri average. . 

The projections also predict the total number of openings by occupation. Openings occur for several reasons including growth, people moving into a different occupation, and workers leaving the workforce. No matter the reason, qualified individuals are still needed to fill job vacancies. Most openings will be in entry-level jobs, mostly due to high turnover rates as workers either transfer to another occupation or leave the workforce.

Missouri Workforce 2020 Survey

In July through September of 2020, nearly 700 Missouri companies were surveyed to gauge the state’s workforce from the employers’ point of view. This marked the second consecutive year of this survey. Companies were randomly selected from a categorized list of businesses queried from the Reference USA employer database. Employers surveyed represented the mix of industries found in Missouri and were equally located in metro and non-metro areas. The questions helped with understanding Missouri employers’ hiring trends, skill needs, experience and education requirements, and the impact of COVID-19 on those businesses.

Most employers anticipate maintaining employment levels over the next 12 months. A greater percentage of employers plan to expand employment vs. decrease employment next year, despite being surveyed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The largest barrier to expanding employment continues to be a shortage of workers with knowledge and skills. The greatest shortages are found in Skilled Trades and Patient Care. In nearly all skills areas, shortages were higher in non-metro areas vs. metro areas. Employers responding to the survey were less likely to consider justice-involved individuals than last year’s survey respondents. 

Companies employ workers in a variety of occupations, or functional areas. The companies were asked about employment within those functional areas as a means of understanding the types of jobs Missouri employers have working in their businesses.

Companies indicating they had employees in each functional area were then asked if they were seeing a shortage of skilled applicants in those areas. The areas with the greatest shortages of skilled applicants were Skilled Trades, Patient Care, and Manufacturing/Maintenance.

Justice-involved individuals are a portion of the potential workforce for employers. However, individuals who are justice-involved or have difficulty passing a drug screen or background check often have a difficult time finding employment.

Nearly three-fourths of all employers report they require a criminal background check prior to employment. Results were similar for metro and non-metro areas. Of the employers surveyed, 20% stated they would not consider hiring a person convicted of a felony. Half of employers stated it would depend on the type of felony.

Nearly half of employers statewide, or 47%, screen for at least one drug type with little difference between metro and non-metro employers.