Narrative: II. a. 1. B.

Labor Force and Unemployment Rate

This section describes the state labor force and unemployment rate estimates for the period between January 2018 and January 2022 published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Table S2301 Employment Status is included below. Stated simply, the labor force includes all non-institutionalized civilians 16 years and older who are employed or actively looking for work.

Table S2301 above takes a detailed look at the labor force data for the year 2022 calculated by the U.S. Census Bureau (based on the 2018-2022 American Community Survey). The table includes labor force participation rates, employment-to-population ratios and unemployment rates for various demographics. The highest unemployment rates are found among the younger population, Blacks or African Americans, persons with disabilities and those with less than a high school diploma all at 8.0% or above. 

A review was conducted of Arkansas’ historical data (January 2008 – September 2019) for the state labor force and the number of employed. Due to the Great Recession of 2008, both the labor force and the number of unemployed decreased from 2008–2010. The number made a modest recovery from 2010–2012 and then sharply declined again until 2014. From that point onward the labor force and number of unemployed have experienced a steady increase. However, since 2014, the number of employed has increased at a faster rate than the labor force. In fact, the number of employed in September 2019 has surpassed the pre-recession level, while the labor force is just approaching its pre-recession level. As a result, the unemployment rate has been steadily decreasing from its highest in May 2011 (8.5%) to its lowest at 3.4% in August 2019.

Arkansas’ historical data for 2015–2019 was reviewed for table S2301 Employment Status.  While the unemployment rate for the entire population remained stagnant at 5.1% when comparing 2019 to 2022 although there were dramatic changes within the individual populations.  The unemployment rate from 2019 to 2022 estimates for the 16-19 years of age population reduced drastically from 19.3% to 16.5%, while the estimated population increased from 160,796 to 165,397 representing a 2.7% increase.  This has been attributed to the increase of service sector positions, and replacing the aging population dealing directly with the public that likely chose retirement if it was available during the Pandemic period for safety. 

Populations with more than two races dramatically increased from 46,194 to 136,679 representing an 196% increase while the unemployment rate for the same population decreased dramatically from 9.1% to 5.8%. 

Labor Market Trends

The reports referenced were produced by the Labor Market Information section of the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services. These reports may be accessed at: https://www.discover.arkansas.gov/Publications/index

Population:
Arkansas grew in population in 2022 by 19,746 from 2021 and added a total of 31,812 new residents from 2018 to 2022. Of Arkansas’s 10 Local Workforce Development Areas (LWDAs), Northwest Arkansas saw the largest increase in population, adding 16,934 in 2022. The Eastern, Northeast, Southeast, and Southwest Arkansas LWDAs saw decreasing populations in 2022.

Age Distribution:
An analysis of Arkansas’ population distribution by gender and age group for 2010 and 2022 revealed that between the number of people 65+ grew substantially while the younger population (under-20) reduced. In fact, the 65+ group increased its share of the total population from 14.4% in 2010 to 17.8% in 2022, a growth of about 120,000 people. During the same period, the under 20 age group went down from 27.2% to 25.5%, a net decrease of about 20,000. Based on the population projections, by 2030, 20.5% of the state population will be age 65 or older resulting in the older population continuing to increase its share of the total population.

Racial and Ethnic Composition:
This subsection describes the projected racial and ethnic composition of the state population from 2013-2030.  Four major ethno-racial groups are identified: whites, blacks, Hispanics, and other races. Hispanics are not a racial group but rather an ethnic group, which means that whites, blacks and other races are found in this group. In this study, the whites, blacks and other races groups exclude Hispanics.  The ethno-racial composition of the total population (all ages) and the younger population (under age 24) are examined.

Whites constitute the current and projected predominant population group in Arkansas. The under 24 age group is more diverse than the total population with whites constituting 63.8% of the under 24 population in 2018 as compared to 72.2% of the total population (all ages).

The white population group is expected to experience a decrease in its share of the total population from 72.2% in 2018 to a projected 68.1% in 2030, a decrease of about 4.1 percentage points.  The trend is also expected for the under age 24 population, with the share of the white group decreasing from 63.8% in 2018 to a projected 59.3% in 2030, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points.

The remaining three groups (blacks, Hispanics, and other races), all are expected to show an increase in their share of total population. However, the Hispanics are anticipated to experience the largest percentage growth going from 7.8% in 2018 to 10.1% in 2030.  This is also true for the under age 24 population with the Hispanic group growing from 11.6% in 2018 to 14.6% in 2030.

Employment status by race data for 2022 show that whites made up 75.3% of the labor force while the total of all minority groups made up 24.7%. The unemployment rate for all races, including Hispanics, was 3.3%. The unemployment rate for all minority groups combined was 4.9%. Hispanics of all races made up 8.1% of the labor force, with an unemployment rate of 2.9%.

Industry:
This section describes projected labor demand trends by industry sector for the state of Arkansas for the decade of 2020-30.  The analysis is based on the long-term (2020-30) State and industry projections published by the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services and the national long-term industry projections published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industries analyzed include all the 2-digit industry sectors defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), except for two – the self-employed and government sectors.

According to our data, labor demand in the state is expected to increase by 124,387 jobs between 2020-30, a 9.05% increase. Goods-Producing industries are expected to add 14,340 new jobs, while the Services-Providing industries should see most of the growth, with 114,345 new jobs being added.

The Natural Resources and Mining super-sector is slated to add 5,565 jobs between 2020 and 2030. Driving the growth is the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting sector, which could see a gain of 5,531 jobs. Animal Production is forecast to be among the ten highest growing occupations, rising by 2,929 jobs during the projection period. However, Logging could see a loss of 183 jobs. The Mining sector is slated to experience a net gain of 34 jobs. While Mining (except Oil and Gas) could see a gain of 42 jobs, Oil and Gas Extraction is predicted to lose 38.

Construction is estimated to grow by 2,563 jobs. More than two-thirds of the growth could come in the Specialty Trade Contractors subsector, with a growth of 1,713 new jobs over the 10-year period. Driving this growth is Building Equipment Contractors, which is forecast to add 945 new jobs. On the negative side of the economy, Land Subdivision could see a loss of 12.75%, making the Top 20 Fastest Declining Occupations list.

The Manufacturing super-sector is expected to increase by 6,212 jobs but is not predicted to be at pre-pandemic levels. However, the Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing industry group is estimated to increase employment by 2,363 jobs exceeding pre-pandemic levels. The Food Manufacturing subsector is the driving force behind the growth, with a projected gain of 2,417. Animal Slaughtering and Processing is the top growing industry in Manufacturing with a growth of 1,296 jobs. Animal Food Manufacturing is slated to be the fastest growing industry among Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, increasing its workforce by 20.58%. However, on the negative side of the job market, several Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing industries, five in all, made the Top 20 Declining Industries list. Leading the group is Converted Paper Product Manufacturing, with a loss of 459, placing third in the state in numeric decline. Apparel Knitting Mills is slated to be the fastest declining industry in the state with a potential loss of 44.57% of its workforce. In all, five Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing industries made the Top 20 Fastest Declining Industries list.

The Durable Goods Manufacturing industry group is forecast to increase employment by 3,849 jobs, but only to 98.28% of pre-pandemic level. The largest increase in jobs should be seen in the Transportation Equipment Manufacturing subsector, with 1,710 jobs anticipated overall. Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing is slated to be the top growing industry in this group, with an increase of 1,270 jobs. Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing could see a 28.26% rise in jobs, becoming the fastest growing industry in Manufacturing. However, not all Durable Goods Manufacturing industries are slated to see so bright a future. Electrical Equipment Manufacturing is predicted to decrease by 338 jobs, placing among the ten highest declining industries in the state. Its 13.03% decline places the industry in the Top 20 Fastest Declining Industries list and the fastest among Durable Goods industries.

The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities super-sector is slated to add 14,394 jobs during the 10-year projection period. The Wholesale Trade sector is expected to grow by 1,711 new jobs. Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods is anticipated to add 1,266 jobs, while Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods is predicted to raise staffing by 538 jobs. On the other side, Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers could lose 93 jobs between 2020 and 2030. The Retail Trade sector is estimated to grow by 5,592 jobs by 2030. Electronic Shopping and Mail Order Houses is forecast to be among the ten fastest growing industries in the state, increasing its workforce by 45.62%. General Merchandise Stores is predicted to grow by 1,374 jobs. On the negative side of the economy, Electronics and Appliance Stores is slated to lose 398 jobs, or 13.03% of its workforce, becoming the fourth highest declining industry in the state and on the Top 20 Fastest Declining Industries list. In all, five Retail Trade industries made the Top 20 Fastest Declining Industries list, with Book, Periodical, and Music Stores projected to lose more than a third of its workforce, second fastest in the state.

The Transportation and Warehousing sector is forecast to add 6,802 jobs between 2020 and 2030. Truck Transportation is the biggest driver of this growth, adding 2,321 new jobs, making the Top 20 Growing Industries list. Warehousing and Storage is slated to increase by an additional 1,905 jobs. Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation is estimated to be the second fastest growing industry in the state, increasing by 70% between 2020 and 2030, while Support Activities for Road Transportation could see a 30.17% rise in jobs. On the negative side of the labor market, the Pipeline Transportation subsector is expected to cut 52 jobs from its 

workforce, while Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation is projected to lose a third of its workforce. The Utilities industry sector is projected to add 289 jobs during the 2020-2030 projection period. Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution is slated to add 302 jobs, while Water, Sewage and Other Systems is estimated to gain 87 jobs. However, Natural Gas Distribution, could cut 100 jobs from its workforce.

The Information super-sector could continue to struggle through 2030, losing an additional 166 jobs. The Telecommunications subsector could see a significant net loss of 464 jobs over the projection period, making the Top 20 Fastest Declining Industries list and the second highest declining. Newspaper, Periodical, Book, and Directory Publishers is expected to be among the ten fastest declining industries, losing an estimated 15.22%. However, there are a few positives in the Information super-sector. Motion Picture and Video Industries is slated to add 48.73% to its workforce, sixth fastest in the state after losing more than 48%of its workforce during the pandemic. Data Processing, Hosting and Related Services is also anticipated to see considerable growth, adding an additional 296 jobs to its own workforce.

The Financial Activities super-sector is estimated to gain 7,201 jobs from 2020 to 2030. The Finance and Insurance sector is expected to gain 6,296, more than 87% of the total growth in Financial Activities. The Insurance Carriers and Related Activities subsector is estimated to add 5,158 jobs to its workforce. Driving this growth is Insurance Carriers, with a growth of 4,554, placing the industry as the fourth highest growing industry in the state. The Credit Intermediation and Related Activities subsector is estimated to add 932 new jobs to its own workforce. The Real Estate and Rental and Leasing sector is expected to add 905 jobs between 2020 and 2030. Most of the gain is likely to occur in the Real Estate subsector, adding 733 jobs to its workforce. The Rental and Leasing Services subsector could increase by an additional 175 jobs.

The Professional and Business Services super-sector is expected to increase employment by 14,722 jobs between 2020 and 2030. The Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector is slated to raise staffing by 6,549. Driving job growth is Computer Systems Design and Related Services, which is estimated to gain 2,705 of those jobs, a 30.62% increase, placing in the Top 20 Growing Industries list as well as the Top 20 Fastest Growing Industries list. Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services is forecast to increase by an additional 1,744 jobs. The Management of Companies and Enterprises sector could gain 947 jobs by the end of 2030. The Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services is estimated to increase by 7,226 jobs. The Administrative and Support Services subsector drives this growth with a gain of 6,562 jobs. Employment Services leads the sector in growth, adding an estimated 3,539 jobs, and becoming one of the ten highest growing industries in the state. One downside is Facilities Support Services, slated to lose 113 jobs from its workforce and placing it among the Top 20 Declining Industries.

Education and Health Services is estimated to be the top growing super-sector for 2020 to 2030, gaining 39,762 jobs. Educational Services industry sector is estimated to gain 7,779 jobs during the projection period. Elementary and Secondary Schools should see most of this growth with 5,305 new jobs anticipated to be added, third highest growing industry statewide. Health Care and Social Assistance is forecast to grow by 31,983 jobs. Of those jobs, 13,315 could be found in the Social Assistance subsector. Driving this growth, Individual and Family Services is projected to be second in the state in numeric growth, adding 7,771 jobs. In all, seven industries in the Healthcare and Social Assistance sector made the Top 20 Growing Industries list. Child Day Care Services is expected to be one of the ten fastest growing industries, gaining 38.23% during the 2020-2030 projection period. Specialty (except Psychiatric and Substance Abuse) Hospitals is estimated to be the ninth fastest growing industry, raising employment by 41.87%.

Leisure and Hospitality super-sector is projected to grow at 24.22%, and would be the fastest growing in the state, increasing its overall workforce by 25,780. Most of the growth is likely to come in the Accommodation and Food Services sector, which is projected to add 22,011 new jobs. Driving the recovery in Leisure and Hospitality is Restaurants and Other Eating Places, projected to increase employment by 19,074 jobs, to become the top growing industry in the state. The Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation sector is estimated to add 3,769 jobs. Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institutions is slated to be the fastest growing industry, raising employment by 75.47%. In all, five Leisure and Hospitality industries are on the Top 20 Fastest Growing Industries list.

The Other Services (Except Government) is predicted to add 8,732 jobs between 2020 and 2030. Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations could lead the super-sector with 8,467 jobs. Grantmaking and Giving Services could increase employment by 55.55%, fifth fastest in the state, while Religious Organizations is anticipated to add 2,566 new jobs between 2020 and 2030, making the Top 20 Growing Industries list. On the negative side of the labor market, Private Households is forecast to be the top declining industry with a decline of 923 jobs, also making the Top 20 Fastest Declining Industries list.

Occupation:
This section describes projected labor demand trends by occupation group for the state of Arkansas for the decade of 2020-30.  The analysis is based on the long-term (2020-30) State occupational projections published by the Arkansas Division of Workforce Services and the national long-term occupational projections published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The occupations analyzed include the major occupation groups within the Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC) structure.

A total of 169,601 total annual openings are expected each year of the projection period. Of these, 62,624 or 37% would be due to employees leaving the workforce, while 94,538 or 56% would be due to those changing jobs. Growth and expansion accounts for 12,439 or 7% of the annual job openings. All major groups should see positive net growth over the 10-year projection period.

The Management Occupations major group is expected to gain 7,834 jobs during the projection period, with 11,371 total annual job openings. Of these, 4,630 are expected to come from employees leaving the workforce, 5,958 from those changing jobs, and 783 from growth and expansion. The Top Executives occupational family is expected to lead the major group in growth, adding 2,864 jobs. General and Operations Managers is forecast to be the top growing occupation in the major group and seventh statewide, adding 2,699 new jobs. The Other Management Occupations occupational family is estimated to account for 2,324 new jobs but face a mixed outlook. Medical and Health Services Managers is slated to increase employment by 32.17%, or 1,866 new jobs, making both the Top 20 Growing Occupations list as well as the Top 20 Fastest Growing Occupations list. Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers is expected to lose 1,914 jobs during the projection period, becoming the top declining occupation in the state.

The Business and Financial Operations Occupations major group is projected to gain 7,801 jobs by 2030. The group should see 6,521 annual job openings with 1,810 due to those exiting the workforce, 3,931 from those changing jobs, and 780 due to growth and expansion. The Business Operations Specialists occupational family is slated to add 5,765 jobs to its workforce. Management Analysts leads all occupations in the major group with 1,168 new jobs. Fundraisers is slated to raise employment by 47.60%, becoming the third fastest growing occupation in the state. Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists is expected add 1,059 additional jobs. On the negative side of the labor market, Buyers and Purchasing Agents is forecast to lose 223 jobs, or 5.70% of its workforce.

The Computer and Mathematical Occupations major group is expected to add 3,759 jobs during the projection period. Total Annual Openings could amount to 2,326 jobs with 572 annual openings due to exiting the workforce and 1,378 due to changing jobs. Another 376 openings are estimated for growth and expansion. The Computer Occupations minor group should see most of this growth with 3,335 jobs expected over the 10-year period. Software Developers, Applications is anticipating the highest gain with 1,882 new jobs on the horizon, making the Top 20 Growing Occupations list, while Information Security Analysts is anticipating a growth of 33.65%, placing in the Top 20 Fastest Growing Occupations list. Mathematical Science Occupations is slated to experience a net gain of 424 jobs with Operations Research Analysts placing among the ten fastest growing occupations at 38.74% gain. Statisticians also made the Top 20 Fastest Growing Occupations list with a growth of 31.36%. On the negative side, Computer Programmers could see a decline of 87 jobs from its workforce.

The Architecture and Engineering Occupations major group could add 996 jobs by 2030. The group is expected to have 1,007 total annual openings with 301 annual openings due to employees leaving the workforce, 606 from employees changing jobs, and 100 from growth and expansion. The Engineers minor group leads the group in numeric change, expecting to add 750 jobs during the projection period. In this minor group, Industrial Engineers could add 235 jobs, becoming the top growing occupation in the major group. Materials Engineers is slated to raise employment by 35.85%, placing in the Top 20 Fastest Growing occupations list.

The Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations major group is predicted to gain 588 new jobs through the 2020-2030 projection period. Annual openings due to those leaving the workforce would amount to 187, while those changing jobs are estimated to account for 624 openings. Growth and expansion could account for an additional 59 openings bringing total annual openings to 870. The Life, Physical, and Social Science Technicians minor group is expected to gain 209 jobs. Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists is expected to lead the major group in numeric change, adding 95 new jobs to its workforce, while Epidemiologists could be the fastest growing occupation in the major group, raising employment by 40%.

The Community and Social Services Occupations major group is estimated to gain 4,088 new jobs during the projection period. The group could see 3,699 total annual openings with 1,222 due to exiting of the workforce and 2,068 due to employees changing jobs. Another 409 annual openings would be due to growth and expansion. Clergy is slated to add 1,133 jobs to its workforce. It is also estimated that the occupation could experience 1,223 annual job openings. Substance Abuse, Behavioral Disorder, and Mental Health Counselors is slated to increase its workforce by 26.85%. In all, ten occupations are forecast to add more than 100 new jobs between 2020 and 2030.

The Legal Occupations major group is projected to add 649 jobs by 2030. Of the 596 annual openings, 216 should be due to employees exiting the workforce, while 315 would be for employees changing jobs. Growth and expansion could lead to 65 annual job openings. The Lawyers, Judges, and Related Workers minor group leads the group with 355 new jobs anticipated, with Lawyers accounting for 336 of those new jobs. The Legal Support Workers minor group also expects robust growth with 294 jobs projected to be added. Paralegals and Legal Assistants leads this minor group with 268 jobs expected.

The Education, Training, and Library Occupations major group is expected to gain 8,742 jobs during the projection period. The group could see 7,816 total annual openings with annual openings due to occupational exits and occupational transfers accounting for 3,251 and 3,691 jobs, respectively. Growth and expansion are expected to account for 874 annual job openings. Postsecondary Teachers is expected to add 1,135 jobs, while the Preschool, Primary, Secondary, and Special Education School Teachers minor group is predicted to increase by 4,485 jobs. Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education is projected to add 1,391 new jobs, a 36.44% increase, placing among the ten fastest growing occupations in the state. Teaching Assistants, Except Postsecondary, of the Other Education, Training, and Library Occupations occupational family, is also anticipated to add 1,391 jobs during the 2020-2030 projection period.

The Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations major group is projected to add 1,520 jobs by 2030. Of the 1,749 total annual openings, 612 of them could come from employees leaving the workforce, 985 from those changing jobs, and 152 from growth and expansion. The Entertainers and Performers, Sports and Related Workers minor group leads the group with 630 new jobs anticipated. Public Relations Specialists is predicted to be the top growing occupation in the major group, adding 630 new jobs, while Interpreters and Translators could be the fastest growing occupation, raising employment by 26.55%. In all, five occupations are estimated to increase by more than 100 new jobs. On the downside of the economy, Floral Designers is slated to lose 34 jobs between 2020 and 2030, or 11.53% of its workforce, becoming the top and fastest declining occupation in the major group.

The Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations major group is estimated to add 10,934 jobs by the end of the projection period. This group could see 6,326 annual job openings with 2,375 due to employees leaving the workforce, 2,858 due to employees changing jobs, and 1,093 due to growth and expansion. The Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners occupational family anticipates adding 6,939 jobs. Driving growth is Registered Nurses, which is predicted to see continued growth with 2,344 jobs and among the ten highest growing. Nurse Practitioners is slated to be the fastest growing occupation statewide, increasing by 54.04% and placing third on the Top 20 Growing Industries list. Speech-Language Pathologists, also in the same occupational family, is among the ten fastest projected growing occupations, at a rate of 38.69%. The Health Technologists and Technicians family is predicted to experience a growth of 2,884.

Healthcare Support Occupations is projected to add 11,271 jobs by 2030 and be the second fastest growing major group, increasing the workforce by 20.13%. The group could see 8,571 total annual openings with 3,672 of the jobs due to employees leaving the workforce, 3,772 from employees changing jobs, and 1,127 from growth and expansion. The Home Health and Personal Care Aides; and Nursing Assistants, Orderlies, and Psychiatric Aides is the biggest driver of growth, predicted to add 8,196 jobs. Home Health and Personal Care Aides leads the major group in numeric change and second highest statewide, with 6,445 new jobs anticipated. Nursing Assistants is also projected to see steady growth, making the Top 20 Growing Occupations list with a gain of 1,623. One downside in the Healthcare Support Occupations major group is Medical Transcriptionists, which is slated to lose 68 jobs, or 12.85% of its workforce. Pharmacy Aides is projected to cut 11.38% of its own workforce, or 14 jobs.

The Protective Service Occupations major group is expected to add 2,321 jobs over the projection period with 3,153 total annual openings. Of these, 1,193 would be from employees leaving the workforce, and 1,728 coming from those changing jobs. Another 232 are estimated to be from growth and expansion. The Other Protective Service Workers minor group leads the major group with 1,071 new jobs anticipated. Within this group, Security Guards is estimated to be the top growing occupation, adding 736 new jobs. Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers, of the Law Enforcement Workers occupational family, is slated to add 698 new jobs. However, Correctional Officers and Jailers could see a reduction of 227 jobs, or 3.82% of its workforce, becoming one of the ten fastest growing statewide.

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations is estimated to add 21,219 jobs during the projection period, a 21.11% increase, making the major group the top and fastest growing in the state. Of the 21,899 annual job openings, 8,482 should be due to employees leaving the workforce, while 11,295 could come from employees changing jobs. Another 2,122 are related to growth and expansion. The Food and Beverage Serving Workers minor group leads the group with 10,906 jobs expected, with Fast Food and Counter Workers adding 6,590 to become the top growing occupation in the state. In all, four occupations make the Top 20 Growing Occupations list, all among the top ten. Fast Food and Counter Workers also leads the state in the number of job separations with the most annual exits and the most job transfers as well as the most annual job openings. Cooks, Restaurant is slated to be the second fastest growing occupation in the major group, increasing employment by 51.77%. On the negative side, Cooks, Private Household is slated to cut 7.18% of its workforce.

The Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations major group is projected to add 2,997 jobs by 2030. The group should have 6,169 total annual openings with 2,586 jobs due to employees exiting the workforce, 3,283 due to employees changing jobs, and 300 due to growth and expansion. The Building Cleaning and Pest Control Workers minor group is expected to add 2,068 jobs with Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners estimated to add 1,647 of those jobs, placing it on the Top 20 Growing Occupations list. Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation is slated to raise employment levels by 13.94%, becoming the fastest growing occupation in the major group.

The Personal Care and Service Occupations major group is expected to gain 4,305 jobs over the projection period. Of the 4,511 total annual openings, 1,833 should be due to employees leaving the workforce, while 2,248 would be due to those changing jobs. Another 430 jobs could come from growth and expansion. The Other Personal Care and Service Workers minor group leads the major group with 2,009 new jobs expected. Childcare Workers is anticipated to add 1,080 new jobs. Tour and Travel Guides is predicted to be among the ten fastest growing occupations, raising employment by 36.76%. Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers could fare even better, increasing by 43.31%, fifth fastest in the state.

The Sales and Related Occupations major group is projected to gain 5,028 jobs by the end of 2030. The group is estimated to make available 17,816 jobs annually with 6,887 from employees leaving the workforce, 10,426 related to job change, and 503 due to growth and expansion. The Sales Representatives, Services is slated to grow by 2,610 jobs. Driving this growth is Insurance Sales Agents, with an anticipated increase of 2,002 jobs, among the top ten of the Top 20 Growing Occupations list. Retail Salespersons could also experience good growth with 1,917 new jobs between 2020 and 2030. A few downsides in the Sales and Related Occupations major group are Cashiers, slated to lose 506 jobs during the projection period, becoming the third highest declining occupations in the state. Telemarketers is predicted to be among the ten fastest declining occupations in the state, losing an estimated 19.60% of its workforce.

The Office and Administrative Support Occupations major group is expected to gain 1,513 jobs over the projection period, but heavily mixed with some occupational families experiencing gains, while others are expecting job losses. Its 0.95% growth is the slowest in the state. Annual openings for this group are estimated to be 17,551. Of these, 7,533 are estimated to come from occupational exits, while 9,867 could come from occupational transfers. Another 151 are forecast to come from growth and expansion. The Information and Record Clerks minor group should see the most growth with 1,825 jobs added, while Other Office and Administrative Support Workers is estimated to gain 1,045 jobs. Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks leads all occupations in the major group with a gain of 1,002 new jobs. Customer Service Representatives is expected to increase by an additional 928 jobs. On the negative side of the local job market, the Secretaries and Administrative Assistants occupational family is forecast to lose 1,026 jobs, or 5.31% of its workforce. Leading the decline is Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive, which could lose 762 jobs, second highest statewide. Seven occupations within this major group are included on the Top 20 Fastest Declining Occupations list with Word Processors and Typists leading the state as the fastest declining occupation, cutting 32.16% of its workforce between 2020 and 2030.

The Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations major group is estimated to add 3,411 jobs between 2020 and 2030. The major group is predicting 3,648 total annual openings with 884 due to employees leaving the workforce and 2,423 due to employees changing jobs. Growth and expansion are estimated to account for an additional 341 annual openings. The Agricultural Workers minor group drives growth in the major group gaining 3,324 jobs, more than 97% of the major group’s growth. Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and Aquacultural Animals is predicted to add 1,602 jobs and be the fastest growing occupation in the major group, increasing its workforce by 27.98%. Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse is predicted to increase employment by 1,371. On the reverse side of the labor market, Graders and Sorters, Agricultural Products is forecast to lose 62 jobs.

The Construction and Extraction Occupations major group is projected to gain 2,759 jobs over the projection period, with 5,409 total annual openings expected. The group is expected to have 1,554 annual openings due to employees leaving the workforce, 3,579 due to employees changing jobs, and 276 due to growth and expansion. The Construction Trades Workers minor group is expected to see a large gain with 2,030 jobs expected equivalent to 73.58% of the major group’s overall growth. Electricians are slated to gain 575 new jobs, while Construction Laborers could add 571 to its workforce. On the negative side of the labor market, Construction and Building Inspectors is estimated to lose 47 jobs, or 4.77% of its workforce.

The Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations major group is expected to gain 5,402 jobs by 2030. The major group is estimated to have 6,439 total annual openings with 1,938 due to employees leaving the workforce, 3,961 due to employees changing jobs, and 540 due to growth and expansion. The Other Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations minor group could lead the group with 3,891 jobs projected, with Industrial Machinery Mechanics leading the major group with 1,825 new jobs anticipated, placing in the Top 20 Growing Occupations list and the fastest growing occupation at a rate of 25.82%. Maintenance and Repair Workers, General also could experience rapid growth, increasing its workforce by 1,086. On the negative side of the economy, Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers could become the top declining occupation in the major group with a loss of 66 jobs. Home Appliance Repairers is slated to be the fastest declining occupation, cutting 13.38% of its workforce by 2030, placing on the Top 20 Fastest Declining Occupations list.

The Production Occupations major group is projected to add 3,197 jobs between 2020 and 2030. The group is expected to experience 13,111 total annual openings with 4,326 due to occupational exits and 8,465 due to occupational transfers. Another 320 could come from growth and expansion. The Food Processing Workers minor group leads the major group with 1,335 new jobs expected. Driving this growth is Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers, which is estimated to add 611 jobs. Leading the major group in numeric growth is First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, anticipated to gain 681 jobs. Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers is slated to be the fastest growing occupation in Production Occupations, increasing its workforce by 26.92%. On the reverse side of the labor market, Assemblers and Fabricators is predicted to lose 621 jobs. Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers is estimated to be the top declining occupation in the major group, losing 479 jobs, or 7.82% of its workforce. Cutters and Trimmers, Hand is forecast to reduce its already small workforce by 25.93%, becoming the fastest declining occupation in Production Occupations and second fastest statewide.

The Transportation and Material Moving Occupations major group is estimated to gain 14,053 jobs during the projection period, the second highest in the state. With 19,037 total annual openings expected, 6,555 could come from employees leaving the workforce, while 11,077 would come from those changing jobs. Growth and expansion are estimated to account for 1,405 annual job openings. The Material Moving Workers occupational family is estimated to grow by 6,962 jobs, while the Motor Vehicle Operators family is estimated to add 6,523 jobs. Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers leads the group with 3,056 new jobs, while Stockers and Order Fillers is estimated to add an additional 2,699, placing fifth and sixth on the Top 20 Growing Occupations list, respectively. Passenger Vehicle Drivers, Except Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity is slated to increase its workforce by 22.52% to become the fastest growing occupation in the major group.

Labor Force and Unemployment Rate:
The labor force increased by 36,747 between 2021 and 2022, and employment increased by 44,965 over the same period. Unemployment decreased by 8,218 from 2021 to 2022 and has seen a decrease of 4,619 since 2018. The state’s unemployment rate declined by 0.7% from 2021 to 2022. Over the 2018-2022 period, the unemployment rate declined 0.4 percentage points to 3.3% for 2022. The state’s unemployment rate was 2.6% in July 2023.

The State's monthly unemployment rate remained the same or lower than the U.S. unemployment rate during the first six months of calendar 2023.  In January 2023, the Arkansas and U.S. unemployment rates were 3.4%.  By July 2023 the Arkansas rate was 2.6% compared to the national rate of 3.5%.

Median Household/Per Capita Personal Income:
Arkansas’ median household income was $52,528 in 2022 which increased by $405 from 2021 to 2022 but is below the national median household income of $69,717 for 2022. Arkansas’ per capita personal income in 2022 was $51,787 an increase of $639 from 2021. Over the 2018-2022 period, the per capita personal income increased by $9,221. The state’s per capita personal income is below the United States per capita personal income of $65,423.

Wages:
Fast Food and Counter Workers was estimated to have the most employees across the state with 36,520 employed in 2022 with an average wage of $25,579. Cashiers was the second largest occupation with 32,840 employed, earning an average wage of $25,766. General and Operations Managers had the highest average wage of the 10 largest occupations, averaging $84,457 annually.

Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric topped the Occupations Paying the Most list with an annual salary of $365,576. Physicians, Pathologists, with an average annual salary of $322,848, ranked second on the Occupations Paying the Most list.

The entry wage estimate for employers of all sizes was $26,393 for 2022. The median wage estimate for employers with 250-499 employees was $38,566, while wages for experienced workers averaged $59,676 for employers in all size categories.

Of the 1,230,850 estimated employees with hourly wage data, 141,122 or 11% made less than $12 an hour while 300,624 or 24.4% made more than $27 an hour. Employees making between $17 and $21.99 totaled 238,737 or 19.4%.

LOCAL WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT AREAS
Arkansas is divided into ten local Workforce Development Areas (WDA). These ten areas were analyzed along with their projected percent and numeric change in total employment for all sectors between 2020-2030. The Northwest WDA is expected to grow at the fastest rate (11.8%) and add the greatest number of jobs (37,898). The City of Little Rock WDA is next with a growth rate of 10.9% (adding 21,352 jobs) closely followed by the Central WDA with 10.8% expected growth (19,271 jobs). The West Central WDA (8.8%), Northeast WDA (8.4%), Western WDA (8.0%) and North Central WDA (6.7%) are all expected to grow at greater than 5%, while the Southwest WDA (4.5%) and Eastern WDA (2.8%) will grow slower than 5%. Only Southeast WDA (1.9%) is expected to grow slower than 2%, which is an economic standard for strong growth.

Most of the jobs across all industry sectors are in three Local Workforce Development Areas – Northwest, Little Rock and Central. The three areas together account for about 65.6% of all projected job growth with the Northwest WDA taking the largest share.

1. Central Arkansas WDA:
The Central Arkansas WDA is expected to add 19,271 new jobs between 2020 and 2030. The region’s 10.78% growth is faster than the state’s growth rate. Goods-Producing industries are projected to gain 906 new jobs, while the Services-Providing industries are predicted to add 18,669 jobs. Self Employed Workers, All Jobs could see a reduction of 304 jobs between 2020 and 2030. The population for the area grew 7.27% from 2010 to 2020 to 532,991 total residents.

Education and Health Services is estimated to be the top growing super-sector in Central Arkansas, with a growth of 5,940, an increase of 16.61%. Leisure and Hospitality is slated to be the fastest growing super-sector, increasing its workforce by 22.84%. Food Services and Drinking Places is projected to be the top growing industry, gaining 3,358 new jobs during the projection period. Warehousing and Storage could see significant growth in the area, driving up the industry’s workforce by 46.67%. On the negative side of the local labor market, Manufacturing could experience a net loss of 150 jobs. Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing is estimated to lose 154 jobs, becoming the top declining industry, while Textile Product Mills could lose a third of its small area workforce, becoming the fastest declining industry.

Central Arkansas is expected to have 23,007 annual job openings during the projection period, with 8,492 created from employees leaving the workforce, 12,588 from changing jobs, and 1,927 from growth and expansion. The Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations major group is projected to add the most jobs, with 3,600 new jobs anticipated. Driving this growth is Fast Food and Counter Workers, which is predicted to add 1,687 new jobs to the labor market. The Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations major group is estimated to be the fastest growing major group, with an increase of 21.94%. Nurse Practitioners is forecast to increase its workforce by 58.38%, becoming the fastest growing occupation in the area. For declining occupations, Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers is predicted to lose 122 jobs, becoming the top declining occupation. Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service is anticipated to cut 26.32% of its workforce.

The LWDA saw an increase in the labor force of 7,881 to 255,674 from 2021 to 2022, and the labor force increased by 4,541 over the 2018 to 2022 period. Employment increased by 9,495 between 2021 and 2022 and increased by 5,007 over the five-year period. The LWDA has seen a fluctuation in unemployment over the same time periods. From 2021 to 2022, unemployment decreased by 1,614, and from 2018 to 2022, unemployment decreased by 466. The LWDA’s unemployment rate dropped by 0.2% over the five-year period. In 2023, the unemployment rate dropped by half a percent from January to 2.8% in July 2023.

2. City of Little Rock WDA:
The City of Little Rock WDA is expected to grow by 21,532 jobs during the 2020-2030 projections period, or an increase of 10.86%; greater than the state growth rate. Goods-Producing industries are projected to experience a net growth of 1,059 jobs, while Services-Providing industries are predicted to add 21,229. A loss of 756 self-employed workers is expected. Population in the area has grown 4.39% from 2010 to 2020 bringing the area to 202,484 residents.

Education and Health Services is estimated to be the top growing super-sector in the City of Little Rock WDA, adding an anticipated 7,590 new jobs, an increase of 14.71%. Leisure and Hospitality is slated to be the fastest growing super-sector with a change of 34%. Food Services and Drinking Places is projected to lead the area in numeric growth, adding an estimated 3,669 new jobs to its workforce. Wood Product Manufacturing is projected to experience a boom in its workforce, increasing 10-fold due to influx of new business, becoming the fastest growing in the City of Little Rock WDA. Warehousing and Storage is also forecasted to experience high growth with a boom in new warehousing facilities. The Information super-sector is expected to lose 11.04% of its workforce, or 271 jobs between 2020 and 2030. Private Households is predicted to be the top declining industry, cutting 519 jobs, while Machinery Manufacturing could cut 40.87% from its own workforce.

City of Little Rock WDA employers are expected to have 23,534 annual openings during the projection period. Of these, 8,425 could come from employees leaving the workforce, while 12,956 would be from employees changing jobs. Growth and expansion would account for an additional 2,153 jobs. Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations is predicted to be the top and fastest growing major group with 3,676 new jobs, a 32.03% increase. Home Health and Personal Care Aides is slated to be the top growing occupation, adding 1,105 new jobs to its workforce. Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators is slated to raise employment levels by 82.45% between 2020 and 2030, becoming the fastest growing occupation. On the downside of the economy, Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners is predicted to be the top declining occupation, losing 138 jobs during the projection period. Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service could become the fastest declining occupation, losing an anticipated 24.10% of its workforce.

The labor force increased in the LWDA by 2,235 from 2021 to 2022 and saw an increase of 126 between 2018 and 2022. Employment increased by 3,725 from 2021 to 2022 and increased by 108 from 2018 to 2022. Unemployment and the unemployment rate decreased between 2021 to 2022, with unemployment decreasing by 1,490 and the unemployment rate decreasing by 1.6% to 3.5% in 2022. The unemployment rate fluctuated from 2018 to 2022, but ultimately settled at 3.5% in 2022, the same rate as 2018. The area unemployment rate fluctuated from January 2023 through July 2023, settling to 3.1% in July 2023.

3. Eastern Arkansas WDA:
The Eastern Arkansas WDA is expected to gain 1,067 new jobs during the 2020-2030 projection period, a 2.75% increase in employment and slower than the state’s 9.05% growth. Goods-Producing industries are projected to experience a small net gain of 60 jobs, while the Services-Providing industries are predicted to gain 1,251. Self-employed workers could lose 244 from its ranks. Population declined 12.58% from 2010 to 2020, a loss 16,239 residents from Eastern Arkansas counties, bringing the total population to 112,849.

Leisure and Hospitality is expected to be the top and fastest growing super-sector, with a gain of 875 jobs, an increase of 23.78%. Driving this growth is Food Services and Drinking Places, which is slated to add 460 new jobs to its workforce. Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries is expected to triple in size over the next ten years with most of it likely to occur within the first half of that due to recovery from the pandemic. On the negative side of the labor market, Educational Services could struggle, losing 261 jobs between 2020 and 2030, placing it as the top declining industry. Broadcasting (except Internet is predicted to be the fastest declining industry, cutting 27.27% of its already small workforce. In all, five major groups are forecast to experience job loss with Manufacturing cutting 33 jobs and Information cutting 11.94% of its workforce.

The area is expected to have 4,586 annual openings during the projection period, with 1,821 being from employees leaving the workforce, 2,658 from employees changing jobs, and 107 from growth and expansion. Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations is predicted to be the top growing major group, adding 503 jobs to its workforce. Healthcare Support Occupations is projected to be the fastest growing major group, with an anticipated gain of 16.78%. Home Health and Personal Care Aides is anticipated to be the top growing occupation between 2020 and 2030, increasing its ranks by 230 jobs. First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service & Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Excluding Gambling Services is slated to be the fastest growing occupation, increasing its workforce by 73.33%. On the negative side of the labor market, Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers is forecast to be the top declining occupation, with a loss of 122 jobs, while Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants could see a 23.53% reduction in employment, becoming the fastest declining occupation. In all, five major groups are estimated to see job loss, with Office and Administrative Support Occupations leading with 209 jobs.

The labor force in the Eastern Arkansas WDA decreased by 209 to 43,374 in 2022 from 2021 and has decreased by 3,380 from 2018 to 2022. Employment increased from 2021 to 2022, gaining 342 workers to 41,441. Unemployment saw a decrease from 2021 to 2022, having 551 fewer unemployed, enough to change the unemployment rate from 5.7% to 4.5%. Since the beginning of 2023, the unemployment rate fluctuated from 5.2% in January, ending July 2023 at 4.6%.

4. North Central Arkansas WDA:
The North Central Arkansas WDA is projected to add 5,514 new jobs during the 2020-2030 projection period, or increase employment by 6.67%, slower than the state’s 9.05% change. Goods-Producing industries are expected to add 1,342 new jobs, while the Services-Providing industries could add 4,217. The area is also expected to lose 45 Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers. Between 2010 and 2020, there was a 2.10% decline in population, bringing its total down to 233,324 residents.

Education and Health Services is projected to be the top growing super-sector in North Central Arkansas, with a growth of 1,912 jobs. Natural Resources and Mining is forecast to be the fastest growing super-sector, with a growth of 30%. Food Services and Drinking Places is projected to be the top growing industry, adding 914 new jobs to its workforce. Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing is predicted to increase employment by 49.83%, becoming the fastest growing industry. The Information super-sector is anticipated to be the only downside in North Central Arkansas during the 10-year projection period, losing 47 jobs, or 12.74% of its workforce. In terms of industry sectors, Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing is slated to be the top and fastest declining industry, losing an estimated 80 jobs, or 46.24% of its workforce, between 2020 and 2030.

North Central Arkansas is expected to have 9,972 total job openings annually between 2020 and 2030. Of these, 3,894 would be for employees leaving the workforce, while 5,527 would be for those changing jobs. Growth and expansion would account for an additional 551 jobs. The Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations major group is predicted to have the highest numeric change, with 915 new jobs. Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations is forecast to be the fastest growing major group, increasing by 32.63%. Leading this area in numeric growth is Home Health and Personal Care Aides, with a gain of 358 jobs. Nurse Practitioners is expected to increase employment by 58.57%, becoming the fastest growing occupation. On the flip side of the economy, Office and Administrative Support Occupations is estimated to lose 43 jobs between 2020 and 2030. Cashiers is anticipated to lose 104 jobs, becoming the top declining occupation. Medical Transcriptionists is slated to be the fastest declining occupation, cutting 27.59% of its workforce.

The North Central Arkansas WDA labor force increased by 1,380 from 2021 to 2022 and increased by 101 between 2018 and 2022. Employment rose by 1,809 while unemployment decreased by 429 from 2021 to 2022. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%, or 0.5% from 2021 to 2022. The unemployment rate fluctuated in 2023 but ended at 3.8% in July.

5. Northeast Arkansas WDA:
The Northeast Arkansas WDA is expected to add 9,610 jobs during the projection period. At 8.44%, the area is anticipated to grow slightly slower than the state growth rate during the 2020 to 2030 projection period. Goods-Producing industries are predicted to have a gain of 2,848 jobs, while Services-Providing industries could add 7,123. Self Employed Workers, All Jobs is anticipating a net loss of 361 jobs, 4.37% of its workforce. The population has increased 3.32% from 2010 to 2020, bringing the total population to 270,075.

Education and Health Services is expected to be the top growing super sector, with 3,480 new jobs to be added during the projection period. Leisure and Hospitality is forecast to be the fastest growing super sector, increasing its payroll by 20.45%. Food Services and Drinking Places is projected to lead the Northeast Arkansas WDA in numeric growth, increasing its workforce by 1,654 jobs. Animal Production is anticipated to be the fastest growing industry with a 43.49% increase. On the negative side of the labor market, the Information super sector is slated to lose 104 jobs, or 16.48% of its workforce between 2020 and 2030. Driving this decline is Telecommunications, which is forecast to experience a 26.34% reduction in jobs.

The Northeast Arkansas WDA is expected to have 14,085 annual job openings during the projection period. Of these, 5,252 would be from employees leaving the workforce, while 7,872 would be from employees changing jobs. Another 961 would be from growth and expansion. Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations is estimated to be the top growing major group, adding 1,624 new jobs. Healthcare Support Occupations is predicted to be the fastest growing major group, increasing its workforce by 21.66%. Driving this growth is Home Health and Personal Care Aides, which is slated to add 640 new jobs between 2020 and 2030, a 31.13% increase. Nurse Practitioners, of the Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations major group, is forecast to raise employment levels 55.53% over the next ten years. On the negative side of the economy, Office and Administrative Support Occupations is predicted to lose 150 jobs, or 1.23% of its workforce. Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers is expected to be the top declining occupation, cutting 158 jobs, while Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service could be the fastest declining occupation, losing 24.14% of its own workforce. Data Entry Keyers could also see losses, becoming the second fastest declining occupation at a rate of 19.44%.

The Northeast Arkansas WDA labor force increased to 123,323 in 2022, or by 2,933 since 2021, and increased over the 2018-2022 period by 1,801. Employment increased by 3,612 while unemployment decreased by 679 from 2021 to 2022. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%, a decrease of 0.6% from 2021 to 2022. The area’s unemployment rate ended at 3.4% by July 2023.

6. Northwest Arkansas WDA:
Among the 10 Local Workforce Development Areas, Northwest Arkansas has the largest employment base in the state. This region is projected to gain 37,898 jobs, an increase of 11.75%, from 2020 to 2030. The area is growing faster than the state’s 9.05% growth. Goods-Producing industries are projected to gain 4,248 new jobs, while Services-Providing industries are predicted to add 34,712 jobs over the 2020-2030 projection period. The area is estimated to lose 1,062 Self-Employed jobs. The population grew 18.45% from 2010 to 2020 bringing the total population to 688,662.

Education and Health Services is expected to be the top growing super-sector with 12,077 jobs anticipated to be added. Natural Resources and Mining could be the fastest growing among the super-sectors, raising employment levels by 36.06%. Food Services and Drinking Places is estimated to lead the Northwest Arkansas WDA as the top growing industry, adding 4,320. Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution is predicted to be the fastest growing industry, increasing its workforce by 67.07%. On the negative side of the labor market, Machinery Manufacturing is predicted to lose 99 jobs, or 7.05% of its workforce, while Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing is anticipated to be the fastest declining industry, cutting 11.68% of its workforce. All super-sectors in the Northwest Arkansas WDA are forecast to experience growth.

Northwest Arkansas is projected to have 40,977 annual job openings over the 2020-2030 projection period. Of these, 14,702 would be due to employees leaving the workforce, 22,485 for those changing jobs, and 3,790 for growth and expansion. The Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations major group is predicted to add the most jobs, with a net gain of 4,813, while Healthcare Support Occupations is estimated to be the fastest growing major group with a 31.18% growth. Home Health and Personal Care Aides could see significant growth in the region with a projected increase of 1,934, a 55.01% rise in jobs. Nurse Practitioners could see an increase of 60.69%, becoming the fastest growing occupation in the Northwest Arkansas WDA. On the negative side, Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers could lose 370 jobs during the projection period, while Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials is slated to be the fastest declining occupation, losing an estimated 18.18% of its local workforce.

The Northwest Arkansas WDA labor force and employment increased from 2021 to 2022, with the labor force gaining 18,938 to 350,997 and employment increasing by 20,020 to 342,190. Unemployment decreased by 1,082 to 9,807 in 2022 and has seen a decrease of 623 since 2018. The unemployment rate dropped from 2021 to 2022 by 0.5% to 2.5%. The area’s unemployment rate fluctuated from 2018, but ultimately settled at 2.5 in 2022. The unemployment rate ended July 2023 at 2.5%.

7. Southeast Arkansas WDA:
The Southeast Arkansas WDA is expected to increase employment by 1,504 between 2020 and 2030. Goods-Producing industries are projected to experience a net loss of 233 jobs, while the Services-Providing industries are predicted to gain 2,165 jobs. The area is estimated to lose 428 Self-Employed Workers. Population in the area declined 10.84% from 2010 to 2020, with a loss of 23,166 residents, bringing its residency to 190,554.

Leisure and Hospitality is slated to be the top and fastest growing super sector, gaining 1,439 new jobs, an increase of 30.41%. Driving this growth is Food Services and Drinking Places, with a gain of 1,063 jobs. Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations is predicted to increase its labor force by 52.46% between 2020 and 2030 to become the fastest growing industry in the Southeast Arkansas WDA. On the negative side of the labor market, five super sectors are estimated to see net losses, with the Manufacturing super sector forecast to cut 377 jobs, while the Information super sector could see a 21.63% reduction in its own workforce. Paper Manufacturing is predicted to be the top declining industry, losing 356 jobs, 13.36% of its workforce. Broadcasting (except Internet) is estimated to be the fastest declining industry, cutting its small area workforce by 36.36%.

Southeast Arkansas WDA employment is expected to increase by 1.93% between 2020 and 2030, the slowest WDA in the state. Of the 8,785 job openings projected to be available annually, 3,451 would be from employees leaving the workforce, 5,184 from employees changing jobs, and 150 from growth and expansion. Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations is predicted to be the top and fastest growing major group, with a gain of 1,112 new jobs, a 24.15% increase. Fast Food and Counter Workers is driving this growth, adding 542 jobs to its workforce. Directors, Religious Activities and Education is slated to increase staffing by 69.23%, becoming the fastest growing occupation in the area. On the negative side of the economy, Office and Administrative Support Occupations is expected to be the top declining major group, losing an estimated 467 jobs, 5.92% of its workforce. The Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations major group could decline slightly faster at a rate of 5.99%. Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers is predicted to be the top declining occupation, with a loss of 243, while Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service is estimated to lose a third of its workforce to become the fastest declining occupation.

Southeast Arkansas saw a decrease in the labor force of 418 to 76,542 from 2021 to 2022, but employment increased by 249 to 72,999 for the same period. Both the labor force and employment have decreased since 2018 by 4,843 and 4,551 respectively. Unemployment decreased by 667 to 3,543 from 2021 to 2022 and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.6% in 2022. After starting at 4.9% in January 2023, the unemployment rate fluctuated, ultimately settling to 4.2% in July 2023.

8. Southwest Arkansas WDA:
Employment in the Southwest Arkansas WDA is forecast to increase by 3,843, for a 4.48% growth, during the 2020-2030 projection period, which is slower than the state’s growth rate. Goods-Producing industries are projected to gain 1,124 jobs, while the Services-Providing industries are predicted to increase by 3,073 jobs. The area is expected to experience a net loss of 354 Self-Employed Workers. Population decreased 8.42% from 2010 and 2020, bringing its total down to 213,073 residents.

Leisure and Hospitality is estimated to be the top and fastest growing super-sector, with a gain of 1,151 jobs, a growth of 21.20%. Food Services and Drinking Places is predicted to add 888 new jobs, becoming the top growing industry, while Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations is slated to increase its workforce by 38.76%, becoming the fastest growing industry. On the negative side of the economy, the Information super-sector could see its workforce drop by 15.22%, or 51 jobs. Paper Manufacturing is forecast to be the top declining industry, losing 108 jobs, while Oil and Gas Extraction is slated to be the fastest declining industry, cutting its workforce by 27.86%.

Between 2020 and 2030, Southwest Arkansas employers are estimated to have 10,095 job openings annually. The area is forecasted to have 3,841 annual openings due to employees leaving the workforce, while 5,870 are due to employees changing jobs. Growth and expansion could account for 384 annual job openings. Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations is estimated to be the top growing major group, increasing employment by an anticipated 892 jobs. Community and Social Service Occupations is predicted to be the fastest growing major group, raising employment levels by 24.33%. Home Health and Personal Care Aides leads the region in numeric change, adding an estimated 334 jobs, or nearly 26% to the workforce between 2020 and 2030. Musicians and Singers is slated to be the fastest growing occupation, increasing its ranks by 59.42%. Office and Administrative Support Occupations is projected to be the top and fastest declining major group, losing 276 jobs, 3.40% of its labor force. Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers is predicted to be the top declining occupation in the area, losing 249 jobs, while Medical Transcriptionists could lose 31.58% of its already small workforce in the Southwest Arkansas WDA.

The Southwest Arkansas WDA labor force decreased from 2021 to 2022 by 295 to 88,656, while employment increased by 271 to 84,828. Over the five-year period from 2018 to 2022, the area has seen a decrease of 4,254 in the labor force and decrease of 3,486 in employment. Unemployment decreased by 566 from 2021 to 2022 and decreased by 768 over the five-year period. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.6% from 2021 to 2022 to 4.0%. After various fluctuations in the unemployment rate during 2023, the rate settled at 4.0% in July 2023.

9. West Central WDA:
West Central Arkansas is expected to see an employment increase of 10,633 during the 2020-2030 projection period. Goods-Producing industries are projected to gain 1,411 new jobs, while the Services-Providing industries are predicted to gain 9,365. Self Employed Workers, All Jobs is estimated to lose 143 jobs by 2030. The population declined 0.42% from 2010 and 2020, bringing the area’s total population down to 313,162 residents.

Leisure and Hospitality is estimated to be the top and fastest growing super-sector, adding 3,054 jobs, an increase of 25.01%. Driving this growth is Food Services and Drinking Places, which is slated to grow by 2,169 jobs. Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation could see significant gains during the projection period, increasing by 93.70%. On the negative side, Federal Government, Excluding Post Office is predicted to cut staffing by 124 jobs, 14.81% of its local workforce. Telecommunications is projected to decline by 26.09%, becoming the fastest declining industry. The Information super-sector is estimated to lose 56 jobs, equivalent to 8.18% of its workforce.

West Central Arkansas’ occupational employment is expected to increase 8.77% during the projection period, which is slightly lower than the state growth rate. About 15,503 annual job openings are anticipated in the area. Of these, 5,863 are estimated to come from employees leaving the workforce, while 8,577 from employees changing jobs. Growth and expansion are estimated to account for 1,063 of those jobs. The Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations major group is projected to be the top and fastest growing major group with 2,298 new jobs, a 21.89% increase. Home Health and Personal Care Aides leads the West Central Arkansas WDA in numeric growth, adding 772 jobs, a 30.07% uptick. Nurse Practitioners is slated to be the fastest growing occupation, increasing its workforce by 60.96%. On the negative side of the labor market, Cashiers is projected to be the top declining occupation, losing an estimated 106 jobs, while Sewing Machine Operators could cut 37.04% of its workforce, becoming the fastest declining occupation.

In 2022, the labor force and employment increased in the West Central Arkansas WDA. The labor force increased by 2,521 to a total of 129,963, while employment increased 3,153 to a total of 124,933. The labor force decreased by 2,092 from 2018 to 2022 and employment decreased by 1,594. Unemployment decreased from 2021 to 2022 by 632 to 5,030. This caused the unemployment rate to drop from 4.4% to 3.9%. The unemployment rate fluctuated through 2023 but ended at 4.0% in July.

10. Western Arkansas WDA:
The Western Arkansas WDA is expected to experience a net growth of employment with 9,078 jobs forecast to be added during the projection period. Goods-Producing industries are projected to have a net gain of 1,382 jobs, while the Services-Providing industries are estimated to add 8,178. The area is predicted to lose 482 self-employed workers. The population declined 1.93% from 2010 to 2020 for a total population of 255,058.

The Education and Health Services super sector is expected to be the top growing super sector, with a gain of 3,940 jobs. Leisure and Hospitality is predicted to be the fastest growing super sector, adding 22.62% to its workforce. Driving this growth is Food Services and Drinking Places with an increase of 1,651 new jobs. Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries could experience significant growth between 2020 and 2030 due to new business ventures and recovery from historical losses. On the negative side of the labor market, Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing is anticipated to be the top declining occupation, cutting 118 jobs from its workforce, while Telecommunications could see a 27.36% reduction in employment, becoming the fastest declining occupation.

The Western Arkansas WDA is projected to see a 7.96% growth of its workforce between 2020 and 2030, which is slower than the state growth rate. Around 14,063 annual job openings are expected to be available during the projection period, with 5,308 created from employees leaving the workforce, 7,847 from those changing jobs, and 908 from growth and expansion. Food Preparation and Food Serving Related Occupations is projected to be the top growing major group, with a gain of 1,689 jobs. Healthcare Support Occupations is projected to be the fastest growing major group, increasing its workforce by 29.25%. Home Health and Personal Care Aides is expected to be the top growing occupation in the area, gaining 890 new jobs, while Nurse Practitioners could see a 60% increase, becoming the fastest growing occupation. On the negative side of the job market, Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers is slated to lose 241 jobs between 2020 and 2030, while Word Processors and Typists is predicted to be the fastest declining occupation, cutting 34.62% of its already small employment.

The Western Arkansas WDA labor force increased 1,781 to 109,484 and employment increased by 2,289 to 105,951 from 2021 to 2022. Over the 2018-2022 period, the labor force decreased by 2,990 while employment decreased by 2,405. Unemployment and the unemployment rate both fluctuated from 2018 to 2022. Unemployment ultimately decreased by 585 to 3,533 unemployed, while the unemployment rate dropped by 0.5% to 3.2%. The area’s unemployment rate fluctuated through 2023, ending at 3.6% in July.

Education and Skill Levels of the Workforce.

Education
Occupations requiring no formal educational credential are likely to add 35,524 jobs between 2020 and 2030. Occupations requiring a high school diploma or equivalent could add 35,255 jobs, but also have 68,204 annual job openings when job exits and transfers are examined. Job seekers with at least an associate degree could see 42,092 new jobs and 32,447 annual job openings when they are ready to enter the workforce. Jobs requiring a master’s degree could see the largest percent change, with a 20.57% gain in employment over the 10-year period. Every educational category is forecasted to see net gains in jobs.  
 
When considering the number of annual openings an occupation is projected to have, the following occupations in the following tables stand out:
 

Skills
Employment projections for 2020-2030 were combined with skills data from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) to estimate worker skills that are more in-demand. The content skills listed are developed capacities that facilitate learning or more rapid acquisition of knowledge. The skills of critical thinking, active listening, speaking, monitoring, and reading comprehension will show the most growth over the 2020-2030 projection period.

A knowledge represents the acquisition of facts and principles about a domain of information. The knowledge domains of English language, customer and personal service, education and training, mathematics, and administration and management show the strongest growth from 2020 to 2030.

According to the US Census, Arkansas has a population of 3,045,637 individuals. The highest level of education among people aged 25 years and older includes: no high school diploma 10%, high school diploma 34.7%, Associate’s 6.4%, Bachelor’s 13.9%, Master’s or higher including a professional degree is 7.6%. The Title II Adult Education program served 16,730 individuals in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, which is an increase of 15% over the previous fiscal year. Adult learners enroll in adult education to attain their Arkansas High School Diploma, participate in English learning activities, workforce preparation activities, and job training programs. Arkansas Adult Education enrollment in the 2022-2023 program year was 9,690 individuals. Of those 9,690 individuals enrolled as participants, only 339 entered at the 9th-grade level or higher, while 6,792 entered below the 9th-grade level. 2,559 of the total enrolled entered as English as a second language learner, with Hispanic/Latinos seeing an increase in enrollment of 29% from the 2021-2022 program year. Arkansas also saw an increase in the Latino population in the most recent census. This is consistent with the increase in enrollment of English Language Learners for adult education.

The 25-44 year-old age group saw the highest increase in enrollment as a total, and also as a percentage of the overall enrollment with 2,849 in that age group comprising 29% of the total enrollment.  For the 2022-2023 program year, 4,163 Educational Functioning Level Gains were made, which was 61.6% of the total enrollment of those making an Educational Functioning Level gain (EFL). Of the other measurable skill gain indicators that were identified, 1,877 secondary credentials were met at 27.8% of the total enrollment; 82 transcripts were identified in postsecondary education; 72 milestones were met for on-the-job or apprentice training; and 562 occupational skills exams were passed that were required for benchmarks to be met and skill gains be recorded.

https://statisticalatlas.com/state/Arkansas/Educational-Attainment   https://nrs.ed.gov/rt/reports/longitudinal  - Arkansas “Measurable Skill Gains Table”.