Narrative: II. a. 1. B.

Population Data

Missouri’s population totaled 6.17 million in 2022, and increased by 0.13 percent compared to 2021. The U.S. population increased by 0.38 percent. Eighteen states declined in population over the year. Missouri is the 18^th largest state in the U.S.

Counties with the largest population are St. Louis (990,414), Jackson (716,561), St. Charles (413,803), Greene (303,293), and St. Louis City (286,578). The county with the smallest population is Worth County (1,955).

Counties with the largest population increase between 2020 and 2021 were St. Charles (3,292), Greene (2,175), Platte (1,814), Boone (1,615), and Christian (1,573). St. Louis County had the largest population decline with a decrease of 7,813 residents.

Missouri has a mix of more densely populated areas centered in the state’s metropolitan areas, along with a large number of rural areas. In the state, 26 percent of counties have fewer than 10,000 residents.

Demographics

In some ways, Missouri’s population is similar to the U.S. population. Age group percentages are within one percentage point comparatively. Missouri has a higher portion of the population aged 55 and older, which results in a higher median age.

Race/Ethnicity statistics for Missouri are different from the national averages. A higher than average percentage of Missouri’s residents are white compared to the U.S. In addition, the Hispanic or Latino population is only 4.6 percent of the Missouri total population compared to 18.8 percent in the U.S. Languages spoken at home by Missourians follow a similar pattern. Compared to U.S. averages, more Missourians speak only English while a lower percentage of Missourians speak other languages.

Missouri supports vulnerable populations through a variety of services and programs. Some of these populations within Missouri are discussed below.

More Missourians report a disability compared to the national average for both the working age population and those 18 and under. According to the Office of Disability Employment Policy in August 2023, the U.S. labor force participation rate for individuals with disabilities ages 16 to 64 was 41.2% compared to 78.2% of individuals without disabilities. Missouri’s employment rate for individuals with disabilities was 36.9% compared to 80.2% of individuals without disabilities employment rate. This data confirms that individuals with disabilities have greater barriers to employment than those without disabilities. Governor Michael Parson has affirmed the state’s commitment to increasing access and opportunities for all, including individuals with disabilities. The Missouri Public Workforce System (MPWS) supports the governor’s commitment.

At 12.3%, the poverty rate for the state is slightly higher than the nation at 11.9%. The low literacy rate in Missouri is 18.9%, which ranks 25th in the nation. Two out of nine counties have populations where 25% or more individuals have below basic literacy. There is no question that the low poverty and low literacy rates create barriers to employment. The MPWS is addressing these issues through supportive services.

Missouri is also home to more veterans than the national average. According to the American Community Survey 2021 1-year estimates, civilian veterans are 7.5% of Missouri’s population or 355,424 individuals. For 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that 47.8% of Missouri’s veteran population, 18 years and over, is employed in the civilian labor force. Their unemployment rate is 1.7%, which is lower than the national average of 2.8%.

With more than 76,000 individuals involved with the Missouri Department of Corrections (DOC), DOC has a large number of individuals facing barriers to gain and maintain meaningful employment. Currently, DOC has an approximate 35% unemployment rate for individuals under Probation and Parole supervision, leading to roughly 18,500 supervised Missourians who are unemployed, which is 10 times higher than the national unemployment rate. Missouri has released an average of approximately 13,000 individuals over the last four years. The MPWS participates in both the state and national re-entry initiatives.

In state fiscal year 2023, the Missouri Department of Social Services served the following benefits to unduplicated individuals and households:

• SNAP to 906,789 individuals in 446,780 households;
• TA (Cash Assistance) to 25,761 individuals in 9,988 households;
• Mo HealthNet (Medicaid) to 1,595,096 individuals in 905,003 households;

In 2021, Missouri expanded Mo HealthNet to include adults. This has allowed an additional 369,631 individuals to obtain the service.

According to a 2022 point-in-time count by HUD, Missouri’s homeless population was 6,193 compared to 582,000 across the nation. 28 % percent of Missouri’s homeless were unsheltered. 

At peak times, particularly during harvest seasons, there can be as many as 10,000 migrant and seasonal farmworkers in Missouri. In PY 2022, the MPWS through OWD conducted outreach services to 1,351 of these workers and enrolled 213 participants in job center services.

Displaced homemakers generally have little paid work experience; therefore, barriers to employment for them are higher than for displaced workers. In PY 2022, the MPWS, through OWD, provided services to 86 displaced homemakers.

According to the American Community Survey 2021 1- year estimates, there are 2,468,726 households in Missouri. Single parent households with male, no spouse/partner vs. female, no spouse partner are 18% (with 1.3% including children under 18) and 27.3% (with 4.8% including children under 18), respectively. Single parent households with children typically have a greater barrier to employment than households with two parents and children. The largest contributing factor is the lack of reliable childcare.

Approximately 450 foster children age out of the system each year, according to the Missouri Children’s Division. The Missouri Department of Social Services reports there are over 13,000 children in foster care. These children are at greater risk of homelessness. According to the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE), during the 2019 – 2020 school year, the total of homeless students, reported through the McKinney Vento definition, enrolled was 34,942 out of 885,554. This total included students in shelters, unsheltered, doubled up in housing situations, or in hotels/motels. DESE also reports the number of students, ages 16 to 21, with individualized educational plans was 21,486 as of December 2020.

Missouri’s Division of Youth Services reports that 483 youths were committed to its care during FY 2022. The population makeup is 86% male and 14% female, the average age is 15.4 years, 49% had received prior mental health services, 58% had a history of substance abuse, and 30% had a prior educational disability diagnosis. Many partners in the MPWS have programs specifically designed to assist youth and students with barriers of all types. This at-risk population is the next generation of workforce participants. Assistance provided to youth and students at this stage can improve their opportunities for competitive employment and quality of life for the future. 

Employment and Unemployment

The number of Missourians in the labor force recovered strongly following the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching an average of 3,061,279 in 2022. This level has held steady and increased based on preliminary estimates for 2023 to date. The size of the civilian labor force has recovered to at or near the pre-pandemic peak in 2019.

Labor Force Participation

Missouri’s population participates in the workforce at a higher rate than the national average. However, the labor force participation rate has been declining in both Missouri and the U.S. over the last decade. In 2022, Missouri’s labor force participation rate was 62.7 percent. It has not returned to levels measured prior to the pandemic.

Labor Force Trends by Demographic

While most populations had relatively low unemployment rates in 2022, there are still differences among population groups. Estimates show those with a bachelor’s degree or some college or an associate degree had an unemployment rate of 1.4 percent and 1.6 percent respectively. For high school graduates with no college, the unemployment rate was more than a percentage point higher at 2.7 percent.

Among other groups, the Black or African American population tended to have a higher unemployment rate, particularly for women. The Hispanic or Latino ethnicity population also had a higher than average unemployment rate in 2022. By age, both men and women aged 20 to 24 years old had an unemployment rate of nearly twice the overall average.

The average duration of unemployment in Missouri in 2022 was 14.8 weeks. Populations with higher than average lengths of unemployment include Black or African American (22.9 weeks) and men (16.5 weeks).

While all regions of the state had relatively low unemployment rates in 2022, higher than average rates were in the South Central, Southeast, Kansas City, West Central, and Northeast regions.

Top Growing Occupations

Over the long term, industry needs for certain occupations grow while others decline. A trained and ready workforce is needed to fill employer demand and offer jobseekers bright prospects for employment. 

Long-term projections are produced in each state in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration. These projections provide insight on the occupations that are growing and declining. The annual number of openings account for three different types of vacancies - exits, transfers, and growth. Exits occur as individuals leave the workforce for reasons such as retirement. Transfers occur as a person leaves an occupation to work in a different occupation. Growth simply means that more people are needed to work in the occupation. Regardless of the reason for the openings, skilled workers are needed to fill them.

Missouri adds value to the standard projections template by including the ACT WorkKeys Assessment Levels typically required for success in each of the 800+ occupations. Since most of Missouri’s counties participate in the Certified Work Ready Communities program, the levels help those researching careers find good options based on their personal assessment.

Missouri uses a system of Now, Next and Later to categorize the occupations according to the training and education typically required for success on the job. Now occupations typically require a high school education or less along with short-term training. Next occupations typically require moderate to long-term training or experience and or education beyond high school. Later occupations typically require a bachelor’s degree or higher.

A “career grade” is assigned to each occupation based on the outlook for total openings, rate of growth, and average wages. Those with a grade of A or B are projected to have the best outlook in the long-term.

Top occupations in the Now category with over 10,000 annual openings from 2020-2030 are Fast Food and Counter Workers, Cashiers, Home Health and Personal Care Aides, Retail Salespersons, and Waiters and Waitresses. The reason for a high number of openings is turnover within these jobs. Although the wages are lower for these occupations, there are projected to be a high number of openings, and the occupations can provide a first step on a career pathway.

Occupations with the highest number of annual openings in the Next category are Cooks, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers, Nursing Assistants, Maintenance and Repair Workers, First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers, and Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators.

General and Operations Managers, Registered Nurses, Software Developers and Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers, Accountants and Auditors, and Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education. All of these occupations are considered to have a strong career outlook from 2020 to 2030.

Many high demand occupations correspond directly to the seven high growth industries. Occupations such as General and Operations Managers, Software Developers, and Accountants and Auditors can support several industries.